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#1
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mistake?
maybe it's because i'm an idiot, but i can't decide. (actually, i'm thinking it was, but am i being influenced by the outcome?)
no real reads, at least not out of the ordinary... pre-flop is easy, but i'm trying to find leaks where i'm just calling down for no good reason. PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: pryor15 is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, pryor15 calls, CO calls, calls, SB completes, BB checks. Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, pryor15 folds, CO calls, folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds. so there's 9 small bets in there, but i'm probably drawing to maybe 4 outs (2 7's and the backdoor flush/straight draws), but more likely just the 2. plus, i'm not convinced i won't have to put in 2 small bets by the end of this street. Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 calls. ouch. River: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls. [censored] Final Pot: 12.50 BB |
#2
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Re: mistake?
I fold this hand on the flop the majority of the time as well, don't beat yourself up over it.
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#3
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Re: mistake?
I probably raise the flop. The large pot, our weak backdoor draws, and perfect position swing me toward this decision.
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#4
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Re: mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
I probably raise the flop. The large pot, our weak backdoor draws, and perfect position swing me toward this decision. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is spewing. There are just too many players to the flop to make this a profitable raise. Also, the flush draw is present, so you're going to have a tougher read on what the cold-callers have (because you will have a couple). If Hero had the button and there were a couple folds between villain and Hero, then a raise starts gaining value. And I don't count a 7-high one card flush to be worth anything. |
#5
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Re: mistake?
I agree with Mr. W. about the flop raise. Not only is a 7-high flush worthless, but our straight is coming in like 1 time in 30ish. Too many players with too many reasons to call to justify a raise.
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#6
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Re: mistake?
I would give you 3 outs on the flop. 2 for the two 7īs + 1 for str8+flsh.
So you need 14:1 to call. You need to contract 2 big bets to make this breakeven, which is very likely. Lets take the worst case scenario. The flop is capped and 3 players sees the turn (including you). That would give you 16:4 = 4:1. This means that you would have to contract 5 big bets on the turn and river to make it breakeven. Even the worst case scenario seems like it wonīt cost you to much. So i would call it. |
#7
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Re: mistake?
All in favor if folding here, please tell me where my calculations are wrong!! (Page 1.)
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#8
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Re: mistake?
[ QUOTE ]
I would give you 3 outs on the flop. 2 for the two 7īs + 1 for str8+flsh. So you need 14:1 to call. You need to contract 2 big bets to make this breakeven, which is very likely. Lets take the worst case scenario. The flop is capped and 3 players sees the turn (including you). That would give you 16:4 = 4:1. This means that you would have to contract 5 big bets on the turn and river to make it breakeven. Even the worst case scenario seems like it wonīt cost you to much. So i would call it. [/ QUOTE ] The "what's wrong with my math" is simple. Given 3 outs you need about 14:1 is correct. Hero is currently getting 9:1 to call. Assuming he is peeling here, he needs to win 5 SB when he hits his set. That's not so bad, except for the real fear that it gets raised behind him. Suppose Hero knows it's going to get raised. Assuming that you get a couple other players to the turn, his odds are now something like 14:2 = 7:1. What must he do in implied odds to get up to 14:1? You can't look at 7:1 and work your way up from there, because that number has been rescaled. He is investing 2, so needs to win 28 total. Going from 14:2 to 28:2 is another 14 SB. In the capped case, you're looking at something like 20:4, which needs to get up to 42:4 to break even, which is a whopping 22 extra SB AFTER the turn card. Good luck. |
#9
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Re: mistake?
Of course. Didīnt think of the scaling.
Thx! |
#10
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Re: mistake?
I think that your flop fold was correct.
We all get hands like this when the card that would have made our set then appears on the turn. (But not often enough to have made calling the flop profitable.) Missing your quads on the river! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] This game can have a way of playing with our heads at times! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Anyway, you are not an idiot, and in my opinion you played your hand correctly. Unlikely cards just sometimes happen to fall. Dont read too much into it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
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