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- - mistake? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=333694)

maybe it's because i'm an idiot, but i can't decide. (actually, i'm thinking it was, but am i being influenced by the outcome?)

no real reads, at least not out of the ordinary...

pre-flop is easy, but i'm trying to find leaks where i'm just calling down for no good reason.

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: pryor15 is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, pryor15 calls, CO calls, calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, pryor15 folds, CO calls, folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

so there's 9 small bets in there, but i'm probably drawing to maybe 4 outs (2 7's and the backdoor flush/straight draws), but more likely just the 2. plus, i'm not convinced i won't have to put in 2 small bets by the end of this street.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

ouch.

River: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, CO folds, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls.

[censored]

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

I fold this hand on the flop the majority of the time as well, don't beat yourself up over it.

I probably raise the flop. The large pot, our weak backdoor draws, and perfect position swing me toward this decision.

I would give you 3 outs on the flop. 2 for the two 7´s + 1 for str8+flsh.

So you need 14:1 to call.

You need to contract 2 big bets to make this breakeven, which is very likely.

Lets take the worst case scenario. The flop is capped and 3 players sees the turn (including you). That would give you 16:4 = 4:1. This means that you would have to contract 5 big bets on the turn and river to make it breakeven.

Even the worst case scenario seems like it won´t cost you to much. So i would call it.

I think that your flop fold was correct.

We all get hands like this when the card that would have made our set then appears on the turn. (But not often enough to have made calling the flop profitable.)

Missing your quads on the river! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] This game can have a way of playing with our heads at times! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyway, you are not an idiot, and in my opinion you played your hand correctly. Unlikely cards just sometimes happen to fall. Dont read too much into it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

let me see what the other 2 players had and then i'll tell you if your fold was good [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

sadly that flop bet is completely read dependent. pot isn't big enough to draw to your ~3 outs and the BDFD isn't strong at all and your straight draw has tons of gaps. but if he's betting a flush draw, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or something, you could very well be folding the best hand.

it could go either way really. don't fault for the fold, but to continue in the hand, raise is the only option.

Grunch

Well, there's a big difference between callin down and calling one small bet to see the turn. You' immediate pot adds are 10:1 with hugh implied odds.

I think 2-4 outs is about right. 1 for the BDSD, but LT 1 for the flush draw.

It boils dow to reads on the p;ayers behind you. If any are super aggro and likely to raise, then the fold is probably correct, otherwise I call and fold UI on the turn.

Wow, to me this is the easiest fold in the world.

1) You're up against 8 players, so the odds of your pair of sevens being the best right now isn't that great.
2) Even if they are best right now, lots of overcards can come to hurt you.
3) Your BDFD is to the seventh nut flush.
4) Your BDSD is to a one card straight that is further hurt by the flush draw on the board.
5) You don't have the pot odds to stay in and try to spike a 7.

So I think it was a good fold, unless you want to be results oriented about it. In that case, OMG YOU FOLDED QUADS WHAT A BAD FOLD!

Obviously your pattern mapper should have told you that two more 7's were coming and you should have raised/capped pre-flop and the flop! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Seriously, though, I think it's a fine fold. Your BDFD is a pretty low one, so I'd ignore it all-together. Not getting close to the odds you need.

Next time, just cut the action off at your decision point on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I probably raise the flop. The large pot, our weak backdoor draws, and perfect position swing me toward this decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is spewing. There are just too many players to the flop to make this a profitable raise. Also, the flush draw is present, so you're going to have a tougher read on what the cold-callers have (because you will have a couple). If Hero had the button and there were a couple folds between villain and Hero, then a raise starts gaining value.

And I don't count a 7-high one card flush to be worth anything.