I don't wanna raise... QJs UTG

ode · #1 04-27-2005, 10:36 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Button is around 12% VPIP and 9% PFR...
would you take another line?

damaniac · #2 04-27-2005, 10:41 AM

Lead the flop, some of the people in the middle will call, hopefully the PFR will raise. Then you get to 3-bet. I think 3-betting is good there, at least one person should call 2 cold, which makes it about EV neutral, if more than one does, which is very very possible, you're making money. If not, maybe it'll clean up some pair outs (if you're not up against an overpair).

flair1239 · #3 04-27-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lead the flop, some of the people in the middle will call, hopefully the PFR will raise. Then you get to 3-bet. I think 3-betting is good there, at least one person should call 2 cold, which makes it about EV neutral, if more than one does, which is very very possible, you're making money. If not, maybe it'll clean up some pair outs (if you're not up against an overpair).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

chesspain · #4 04-27-2005, 01:47 PM

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Lead the flop,...

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I agree with this.

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...some of the people in the middle will call, hopefully the PFR will raise.

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However, I hate any plan where the reasoning includes the word "hopefully."

damaniac · #5 04-27-2005, 01:59 PM

So was it just the word choice or the thinking that's a problem? I could have said "probably" or "often". I suppose the times he doesn't raise he has something like AK, in which case he may sometimes check it through against a large field (player dependent I guess), which is really bad for us. So when he doesn't raise, usually we're still happy with our plan because there's a decent chance it gets checked through. When he raises, he usually has an overpair, but we're getting more value by trapping everyone with our flush draw.

So the point is, 2+2 is more fun than studying.

Bob T. · #6 04-27-2005, 03:29 PM

I think possibly is a better word than hopefully, probably or maybe in this context.

PokerBob · #7 04-27-2005, 04:04 PM

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I think possibly is a better word than hopefully, probably or maybe in this context.

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I think "likely" is the most accurate.

PokerBob · #8 04-27-2005, 04:05 PM

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However, I hate any plan where the reasoning includes the word "hopefully."

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I just got bet into on the flop after raising AA on the button. I am going to raise, because "hopefully" I have the best hand.

chesspain · #9 04-27-2005, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

However, I hate any plan where the reasoning includes the word "hopefully."

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I just got bet into on the flop after raising AA on the button. I am going to raise, because "hopefully" I have the best hand.

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What I should have said is "I hate any plan where the reasoning includes the word 'hopefully' in regards to the potential actions of another player."

Fat Nicky · #10 04-27-2005, 10:43 AM

I think you played the flop the worst possible way. You need to either bet to pump this pot with your flush draw or check/raise the pre-flop raiser when he bets in LP to face the field with 2 bets protecting your overcard outs. I lean towards the check/raise route since the pot is already pretty big. There is also a slight chance that you will take down the pot UI on the turn with this play.

Comments?