when can i make a laydown like this??

[DcifrThs]

Well actually, i'd like 2 of them but only 1 id call a "legitimate" laydown.

playing party 30/60. great fishy limps, i iso-raise KQo pretty early (UTG+2). flop comes Ks7c3h. he bets i raise he calls.

turn blanks off. same action.

river comes Jd. he bets. i want to fold KNOWING he has KJo without a question in my mind (hed raise it if it were suited). but i call and lo and behold. KJo...enon told me i should feel great about it and make it 100% of the time. i agreed of course so thats notthe real one...but still "coulda" folded.

HERE's the real laydown i wanted to make.

stars 30/60 game. 1 limper, 1 raiser, 1 3bettor (no info except 3bettor is a little loose aggro). i cap with AsAc. loose bb calls 3 cold all call.

flop comes Ks5cXx. checked to limper who bets, raiser calls 3bettor raises i 3bet. flop bettor and raiser call.

3 to the turn. 7c. checked to me i bet 1 caller and now the flop raiser checkraises. i look at the board, look at the action and say, "hes got AcKc" and 3bet, both call.

river comes 3c or some low club. check, AcKc guy bets and i really want to fold. i know im beat here. and i mean flush vs. pair beat. but i look at the pot (1377), look at the size of the bet ($60). and i think about enon and how i say to him "yea i make mistakes, but i almost never make pot costing ones" and i call.

comments...when, if ever, can i fold on the river if i KNOW im beat?

-Barron

[TStoneMBD]

whenever you feel comfortable doing so. i think you dont feel comfortable laying down hands because the players on these forums never lay down a hand when they have 10:1+ odds with even ace high. getting 20:1 on AA, if you dont think your hand is good here 5% of the time then lay it down. its that simple.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
whenever you feel comfortable doing so. i think you dont feel comfortable laying down hands because the players on these forums never lay down a hand when they have 10:1+ odds with even ace high. getting 20:1 on AA, if you dont think your hand is good here 5% of the time then lay it down. its that simple.

[/ QUOTE ]

well in that case, my river call was a mistake. because i was 99.99999999% sure he had AcKc...

turns out i was WRONG b/c he had KcQc...same thing for FAIAP

-Barron

[sthief09]

it's really not that easy to be 95% sure of something

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
it's really not that easy to be 95% sure of something

[/ QUOTE ]
This is an interesting observation, but it is not an excuse for not acting on your certainly on the rare occassions when you are 95% sure.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's really not that easy to be 95% sure of something

[/ QUOTE ]
This is an interesting observation, but it is not an excuse for not acting on your certainly on the rare occassions when you are 95% sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

the way I look at it, I only make those calls when I know I'm 95% sure. mistakenly calling costs a lot less than mistakenly folding. if you just think you're 95% sure, you probably aren't

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
mistakenly calling costs a lot less than mistakenly folding. if you just think you're 95% sure, you probably aren't

[/ QUOTE ]
Saying it's "a lot less" obviously depends on how wrong you are. There's no way you can know it's a lot less in the general case; that doesn't even make sense. How big a mistake you made depends on how big a mistake you made. Suppose there are 18 bets on the pot, you are heads up on the river, and your opponent bets. You are getting 19-1 on the call so you need to be beat 95% of the time to fold. Suppose you are only beat 93%, but you fold anyway. How big is your mistake? Since you folded, you took an EV of zero. If you called, you could have had:
7% of the time you pick up 19 bets. .07 * 19 = 1.33
93% of the time, you lose 1 bet: .93 * -1 = -.93
Total is .4
So, you made a mistake that cost you a little less than a small bet.

Suppose that you call when there was really a 98% chance you were beat. You could have taken an EV of 0, but instead took:
2% of the time you pick up 19 bets. .02 * 19 = .38
98% of the time, you lose 1 bet: .98 * -1 = -.98
Total is -.6
So, you made a mistake that cost you a little more than a small bet. Yeah, this is a bigger mistake than the .4 mistake when you mistakenly call. But not by that much. Obviosuly, we can change the numbers to make either one bigger. My general point (not well made, now that I reread this) is that if it's a close decision, it's a close decision. There is a lot of superstition on these boards that if you make a mistaken call, the money you lose somehow doesn't count because you did the "right thing" even though it clearly wasn't, but if you make a mistaken fold, then you are an idiot who knows nothing about poker, and people are flamed for making the mistaken folds but rarely the mistaken calls. It's silly. Close decisions are close decisions, whether they occur on the river or preflop, and aren't where the real money is made.

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
i cap with AsAc

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
"hes got AcKc"

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming that there really is only one Ac, and you dont have it, i dont think this is a terrible laydown, but im not making it against a virtual unknown.

peace

john nickle

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i cap with AsAc

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
"hes got AcKc"

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming that there really is only one Ac, and you dont have it, i dont think this is a terrible laydown, but im not making it against a virtual unknown.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i kinda feel now i coulda laid this down...i blame enon. i hate you enon.

and john, it was an obvious typo, so when i want your five cents...i'll ask.

-Barron

[cnfuzzd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i cap with AsAc

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
"hes got AcKc"

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming that there really is only one Ac, and you dont have it, i dont think this is a terrible laydown, but im not making it against a virtual unknown.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i kinda feel now i coulda laid this down...i blame enon. i hate you enon.

and john, it was an obvious typo, so when i want your five cents...i'll ask.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

my five cents is worthless, who would ever want it?

Obviously given the way the hand played out, you can make this fold and nearly everytime feel great about it, but remember the fur coat dilemma. Its not a fold i want to get into the habit of making.

peace

john nickle