Chasing with AK

adamstewart · #1 02-13-2005, 05:39 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Hero caps, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Commments on all streets?

Who raises the river?

Adam

einbert · #2 02-13-2005, 05:55 PM

I like the turn call. Why not chase getting 10.5-1 (enough for an average of 4 outs) on a ragged, uncoordinated board against only two players. I think folding this turn would have been a mistake, especially considering you're closing the action.

PF and Flop are v straightforward imo.

If SB is anything but incredibly passive I'm raising this river. After 3-betting PF, the only logical hands that beat you are AA and TT (and maybe AT if SB is a PF LAG). You beat AQ, AJ, most Ax and JJ-KK (I see no reason why SB couldn't have this even though he bet the river). I raise this river, and if I get threebet I'm going to hand SB another $6 just because I'm feeling generous. I guess the reason you didn't raise is because you really REALLY don't want to get three-bet here, as it could easily be from a better or worse hand depending on how aggro the SB is. I raise it up.

Chris Daddy Cool · #3 02-13-2005, 05:57 PM

Raise the river.

only two hands beat you; AA and TT here.

adamstewart · #4 02-13-2005, 06:02 PM

ya, don't know what I was thinking.

I think at the time, I didn't know how I'd respond if he 3-bet me.

Adam

sthief09 · #5 02-13-2005, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

only two hands beat you; AA and TT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

the river seems to be one of those times when math conflicts with logic. if you look at all the hands he COULD have, but don't bother to adjust by frequency, it's a painfully easy raise, as you beat KK-JJ. but, how often does KK-JJ bet the river? he's probably not a good player. he probably doesn't value bet enough. of the times he has KK-JJ, I think he only bets the river like 1/4 of the time (that is, 1/4 of opponents bet the river with KK-JJ on that board). so that's 1/4 of 3+6+6 = 15/4 = 4.25 combinations worth of KK-JJ. AA always bets the river, so that's 1. TT doesn't 3-bet or bet the flop say, 2/3 of the time. then he has 2 TT's. AQ doesn't 3-bet preflop then lead the flop and turn say 4/5 of the time. of the 8 AQ's, that kills all but 1.6. so it's 5.85-2 according to that, whether you're ahead. since he 3-bets with a worse hand and very occasionally folds a worse hand, if these numbers are correct, it's close, since you need to be 2-1. if he has TT slightly more, then calling would be better.

my only point here is raising the river isn't that clear cut.

adamstewart · #6 02-13-2005, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river.

only two hands beat you; AA and TT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

the river seems to be one of those times when math conflicts with logic. if you look at all the hands he COULD have, but don't bother to adjust by frequency, it's a painfully easy raise, as you beat KK-JJ. but, how often does KK-JJ bet the river? he's probably not a good player. he probably doesn't value bet enough. of the times he has KK-JJ, I think he only bets the river like 1/4 of the time (that is, 1/4 of opponents bet the river with KK-JJ on that board). so that's 1/4 of 3+6+6 = 15/4 = 4.25 combinations worth of KK-JJ. AA always bets the river, so that's 1. TT doesn't 3-bet or bet the flop say, 2/3 of the time. then he has 2 TT's. AQ doesn't 3-bet preflop then lead the flop and turn say 4/5 of the time. of the 8 AQ's, that kills all but 1.6. so it's 5.85-2 according to that, whether you're ahead. since he 3-bets with a worse hand and very occasionally folds a worse hand, if these numbers are correct, it's close, since you need to be 2-1. if he has TT slightly more, then calling would be better.

my only point here is raising the river isn't that clear cut.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, good - glad to see I'm not a total fool for not raising.

I was also thinking if he had KK-JJ, and I raised, would he even bother calling?

Further, as I mentioned before, I didn't know how I would/should react if he 3-bet.

Adam

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 02-13-2005, 10:29 PM

maybe i've been playing too much short handed 15/30 games but i think you underestimate how often KK-JJ will bet this river because some players won't even think about the A, scare card or no. their stupidity in hand reading actually compensates for their stupidity in not value betting enough. that said i was still a bit haste in just simply saying "raise the river" i'll admit its a lot closer than that, though it shouldn't be all that close if you can fold to a 3-bet.

beachbum · #8 02-13-2005, 11:08 PM

Won't the same players who "value bet" KK-JJ on this river 3 bet your reraise because they think you're bluffing that scare card and you're full of crap? A lot of times players like to play back at me just for being a player who is more aggressive than the average player who they've seen lay down hands. Also, wouldn't AK 3-bet the river?

Also, what's your read on the villain? Is he a LAG or TAG? The more of a LAG he is the more of a chance (although small chance) he's got 77-99.

Nate tha' Great · #9 02-13-2005, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Won't the same players who "value bet" KK-JJ on this river 3 bet your reraise because they think you're bluffing that scare card and you're full of crap? A lot of times players like to play back at me just for being a player who is more aggressive than the average player who they've seen lay down hands. Also, wouldn't AK 3-bet the river?

Also, what's your read on the villain? Is he a LAG or TAG? The more of a LAG he is the more of a chance (although small chance) he's got 77-99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think raise-fold is the wrong line against an unknown opponent. It's a raise-call IMHO.

Erik W · #10 02-13-2005, 06:34 PM

Raise the river and if you don't improve on the river call anyway. There are plenty of times bettor has AK here and u split the pot.

Anyone disagree?