Standard Hand 2: Whiffed Overcards OOP

[GrunchCan]

Common situation that is similar to this hand. But now, I am out of position and being out-muscled.

Typical PP 1/2 players.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

Call and check-fold the turn unimproved. This is a little weak for my tastes, and I think the pot is big enough to warrant a call.

[GrunchCan]

Yes, I think your'e right.

[John Paul]

I would call and check fold unimproved as well

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and check-fold the turn unimproved. This is a little weak for my tastes, and I think the pot is big enough to warrant a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got 6 outs to TPTK, so you need 7:1 to call, and you're getting that. (You've also got runner-runner to nut str8 which is worth another out or so.)

-- Scott

[Gravy (Gravy Smoothie)]

[ QUOTE ]

You've got 6 outs to TPTK, so you need 7:1 to call, and you're getting that. (You've also got runner-runner to nut str8 which is worth another out or so.)

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

and backdoor flush

[DrBob]

How do you justify counting the overcard outs as full outs? This is probably closer to 4-5 outs than 7.

In fact, I agree with calling the raise, but for other reasons than odds: You might see the river for free if he's not aggressive, he might be on a flush draw (you've got the best hand), it's noticeable to bet and fold the same round.

[wyattjames4]

i dont think youre neccesarily behind in this hand. the raiser easily could have an open ended or a flush draw. the raise would be a good play in my mind. i think you call for sure, and i might even lead on the turn depending on the situation.

[GrunchCan]

If you usually estimate your overcards to be worth 3 outs each, then you are overestimating thier worth.

In this case, any K puts a 3-straight on board, and A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] puts a more dangerous 3-flush on board. What's more, you could be reverse-dominated or even drawing dead against a set or 2-pair. The point is, you can't say with 100% certianty that spiking your pair will win the pot. And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.

However, there are 2 mitigating factors in this hand: I have 2 backdoor draws, each also worth about 1.5 outs. So you came to the right conclusion - that my hand was worth 6 outs. But your reasoning was wrong.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

And so, you can never count 2 overcards as being worth 6 outs. 1.5 outs each is standard. In many cases, they are worth even less.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. On this board, I wouldn't normally discount KA overcards much, but maybe I need to discount them more.

-- Scott