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#3
08-25-2004, 02:44 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
You guys are missing the point. Erostratus, regularly brags about Gus' wins, even when he gets lucky. So since Gus' play totally backfired, and he lost as a huge underdog, I feel obligated to turn the tables on him. And even still, I think it was a poor play.
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#4
08-25-2004, 04:34 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are missing the point. Erostratus, regularly brags about Gus' wins, even when he gets lucky. So since Gus' play totally backfired, and he lost as a huge underdog, I feel obligated to turn the tables on him. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe the problem is that you feel the need to "turn the tables" on somebody.
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#5
08-25-2004, 03:20 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
[ QUOTE ]
Hansen would be a favorite against most hands on that flop. [/ QUOTE ] What hands is he going to be a favorite against after a call and raise of his flop bet? I believe the board was something like Ks Ts 5h. Gus had 5s 8s. Against Tc 2h, Gus is an almost exact 50-50 coinflip. Against Tc 2s, Gus is a 53-47 dog. Unless this guy is raising w/ just a draw, Gus won't be a real favorite to anything (and he's a 57-43ish dog to draws like 9sJs, AsQs, etc.). And he has relatively little fold equity here. I don't like his play after a 50k raise from a big stack who has him well covered and will get something like 3:1 if Gus pushes. Edited to add: Hand details here. Raise was to 50k, not a 50k raise. General points all still hold.
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#7
08-25-2004, 04:32 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hansen would be a favorite against most hands on that flop. [/ QUOTE ] What hands is he going to be a favorite against after a call and raise of his flop bet? [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking he'd be a favorite against one opponent with a typical one pair hand such as KQ. But, I'm surprised the #s don't give him as much of an edge as I thought. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=467688 pokenum -h 8s 5s - qc kd -- ks ts 5h Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks Ts 5h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 8s 5s 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501 Qc Kd 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499 How do I make myself look better? Ah, I know. Gus will be a money favorite. Yes, that's it. Because of all the money in to pot, Gus's play is +EV a significant majority of the time. More seriously, I think Gus expected to get the AsQs guy to fold to the big all-in reraise on the flop. That guy had just called Gus's raise pre-flop and again on the flop. I think Gus expected a big all-in would blow him out of the pot and leave him heads-up with the flop raiser. I'm sure Gus though he was at least 50% in a heads-up situation.
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#8
08-25-2004, 04:51 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
Yes, Gus is likely to fold out the middle guy. And if he assumes a call from the big stack, he's probably +EV w/ the chips in the middle. But he's either a coinflip or dog v. his opponent. Given his stack size, I don't think that's a good play for all of his chips. If he were much shorter and desperate, yes. Or if he had more chips and thus more fold equity.
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#9
08-25-2004, 05:00 PM
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Re: Erostratust, I\'m calling you out!
[ QUOTE ]
Given his stack size, I don't think that's a good play for all of his chips. If he were much shorter and desperate, yes. Or if he had more chips and thus more fold equity. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this. He wasn't the only pro to make this mistake. I thought it was a great example of what Sklansky talks about in TPFAP, where in a tournament if you're one of the best players, you need to sometimes pass on a play that might be slightly +EV yet risks your elimination, because more profitable +EV situations will arise later. And those situations can't come up when you're on the rail.
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