88 against blind steal - Turn Play

[ep510]

button is your typical TAG

What's your plan on the turn?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero?

[newhizzle]

id take another stab, probly fold to a raise

[Azhrarn]

My first instinct is bet/call, with a plan of folding the river unimproved if you are raised on the turn.

As an alternative, since you're not sure if you have a made hand or a drawing hand, you could go check/call, check/call. Works best against bluff/semibluff happy opponents. I'm not sure how good of a line it is against an average TAG, though.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
My first instinct is bet/call, with a plan of folding the river unimproved if you are raised on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's the worst line possible.

Bet-fold seems ok here. If he calls your turn bet you're toast 90% of the time.

[ep510]

[ QUOTE ]

Bet-fold seems ok here. If he calls your turn bet you're toast 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize I still have the (relatively weak) flush draw, right?

[Bodhi]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] It's late, I missed it.

Anyway, I'd be more concerned here about giving a free card to a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flush-draw than making one myself. That still makes bet-call a heck of a lot better, I admit.

[ep510]

1. If I bet the turn, and villian raises, what range of hands do you put him on? Given that range, what's your play?

2. If I bet the turn, and villian calls, what range do you put him on? Given this range, what's your river play?

Based on your answers to (1) and (2), is betting superior to checking, or vice versa? Why?

Here's my best thinking:
Let's assume when he tries to steal he has two cards T or bigger or a pair. If he'd raise with a lot more than this to steal then ignore the rest of this.

On the flop hands that are ahead are:
AK, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, JT, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 22, T9

Hands behind you:
AQ, AJ, QJ, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 98

Basically the flop hit almost any big hand. It missed small pocket pairs and just 3 of the non-pair hands he might have raised with. But even QJ has an OESD (which comes in on the turn BTW).

If he had a smaller pocket pair there's probably a very good chance he'd lay it down on this flop after getting 3 bet preflop. I think the call on the flop means you're beat but if another scary card comes on the turn he might decide to lay down some of the more marginal hands you're behind (and a turn bet would chase out loose calls by smaller pocket pairs).

The turn is a 9h completing the OESD and the flush. Scary card means time to bluff. If he made a loose flop call with a low pocket pair you'll win right here. He'd also likely lay down JT or something that MIGHT have been worth a flop call but is "obviously" behind and facing a big bet. If he doesn't fold here I'd say you're definitely beat.

IMO the flush draw isn't worth calling for if you bet and he raises. It's 4:1 against coming in and you're getting 7:1 but you're not getting any more bets when you win and you're losing at least 2 more when he has a bigger heart (your bet and his raise on the river). So if we say 1/3rd of the time he has a bigger heart let's do the math by playing this hand 15 times:
12 times you lose 1 bet = -12
2 times you win 7 bets = +14
1 time you lose 3 bets = -3

Which is slightly -EV. Maybe he won't really have a bigger heart 1/3rd of the time but a 2h also might give him a full house which makes your odds slightly worse again. At *best* it's SLIGHTLY +EV but I think it hurts your image when you 3 bet preflop, lead into the flop, lead into the turn and call a raise and then fold on the river. So in the end not worth it.

Therefore I'd say bet the turn, fold to a raise. If he calls check/fold the river. If he made a really loose turn call with something you have beat (77 or 55) he'll be more than happy to check behind and get a showdown for free.

But I don't post to the 2+2 forums much so I'd like to hear if people think differently.

I think, this is really a very interesting hand, as it describes a standard problem.

My question is, as the button does not know your hand, whether a check/raise on the turn is possible and will the button make fold? And if a heart hits the river, you're maybe even in front, which I don't suppose at the moment: Which bigger heart could he have, which is not already on the table? Not so much.

[ep510]

[ QUOTE ]
I think, this is really a very interesting hand, as it describes a standard problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but seems like everyone else doesn't [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].