extracting value from strong draws

[c_strong]

Reads: the SB had just sat down, the UTG and Button seemed fairly loose passive.

I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit. Given the pot size and my hand strength, is it better to just call and try to milk it?

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) converter

UTG ($24.55)
MP ($42.70)
Button ($49.55)
SB ($49.50)
BB (Hero) ($58.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?

[c_strong]

bump. I'd be really interested in any comments, as I'm uncertain how best to play this sort of hand.

[beavens]

i'd like a raise to the new pot size - juice up the pot since he's probably on a draw as well.

although an argument could be made just to call, because if you both his the draw then all the money will be in the middle anyways.

At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

[c_strong]

Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

[c_strong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is $1.50, facing a $1.5 bet. you raise all fold, you net +$3

if you raise to $5 and SB calls, the pot is $11.50. let's say your equity is 50%, then your equity is $5.75 and your expectation is to net out +$.75. this doesn't include any other money that you may have to put in on later streets.

when you raise with a coin flip, you pretty much always want people to fold.

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. Do you guys realize he has an open-ended straight flush draw with at least one clean overcard?

You are a huge favorite over a pair here.

A few hand comparisons:

K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 68% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 62% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 55% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 54% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 50% to win
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 40% to win

What about multiway?
vs JJ and AA 55% to win
vs AA and 87 49% to win
vs JJ and T9 40% to win!

That's a huge overlay. Stop thinking about who would win on the flop, it's a 7 card game. Raise it up sure, but do it for value.

[FreakDaddy]

Answer: No, they don't get it. I've explained this concept several times on here though (along with others).