Daily Hand Post: "Amazingly Standard" AQ?

[jason_t]

Two hands today since I missed a bunch while in Vegas.

Read on villain: 46.9/.42/1.00 after 940 hands with a preflop cold call % of 28.26%.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: I am MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, MP3 calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (7.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
I check, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, I call.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[beset7]

It's hard to comment on this hand without any player reads but if villain is aggressive then I play it the same way.

[shant]

As I said to Jason over IM:

"seems pretty standard. both bets are standard for me and on the river he can have missed diamonds or some wierd backdoor draw that he now thinks he can get you to fold on the river with, so i call."

[aK13]

46 VPIP with 1 aggro usually means he's pretty aggressive -- I like to call the river here too (The flop and turn bets are standard -- for me, anyway)

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
As I said to Jason over IM:

"seems pretty standard. both bets are standard for me and on the river he can have missed diamonds or some wierd backdoor draw that he now thinks he can get you to fold on the river with, so i call."

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fine with the call.

I do think it's unfortunate that the jack hits some backdoor draws, though (89, J9, J8).

[SmileyEH]

zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough I would think. Something like 1 in 6 seems reasonable.

-SmileyEH

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a very very good read (&gt; 1k hands WATCHED, not just played with), this is exceedingly difficult.

With the information we have, this is essentially impossible.

To come up with any analysis we have to make estimates about:

- His CCing range
- What he calls the flop with
- What he calls the turn turn
- What he bets the river with when checked to

When you are making so many estimates based on so little information, the analysis wont have much meaning.


But.. that doesnt mean that we dont think it is highly likely that his analysis will show that calling the river is +EV. Because it will.


(I think the fact that my first idea was to mention quantum mechanics in this reply means that I've been spending WAY too much time in S/M/P).

[SmileyEH]

Haha, I've totally used wave forms collapsing as an analogy for my phsyics friends when describing hand ranges.

-SmileyEH