I predict a billion people focusing on preflop

[jason_t]

Party 2/4. Table is 42.8/6.46/1.76.

Button is 18.5/6.1/1.5 and SB is 29.6/5.4/1.5. I don't have notes on these players and have only been at the table for one orbit.

Preflop: I am SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Five limpers to the Button, <font color="#cc3333">Button raises</font>, I call intending to check/raise most flops, BB calls.

Flop: (16.00 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000ff">(8 players)</font>
Checked to the Button, <font color="#cc3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc3333">I raise</font>, BB calls, folded to the Button who folds.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000ff">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#cc3333">I bet</font>, <font color="#cc3333">BB raises</font>, I call.

River: (14.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000ff">(2 players)</font>
I....

[Evan]

BB seems pretty reasonable but too passive so here is what I think he can have on the turn:

KJs/o
K9s/o
J9s
QTs/o
KQs/o (maybe, but not likely)
JJ (maybe, he seems like a bit of a pussy)
99


Yea, so basically you're [censored]. Check/call.

[ZenMusician]

In my experience at 2/4 the turn raise means 1 of 2 things:

1.) He has hit 2 pair (or may have had J9 already)
2.) He is putting you on a heart draw (no raise pf)

The more I look at this hand I smell a flopped str8, but
it seems hard to put the BB on it with his agg# and the fact
that the button may have dropped out with your raise on
the turn so it doesn't make sense that he didn't re-raise there.

I am leading this river and calling any raise.

-ZEN

[thejameser]

i don't know what you do but i bet/call. nice table btw.

[shant]

For the bet/callers, what are you guys putting the BB on when he raises the turn that the river K changes?

[PITTM]

im retarded...

[PITTM]

nm

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
For the bet/callers, what are you guys putting the BB on when he raises the turn that the river K changes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with Shant. This guy isn't horribly aggressive post-flop. What worse hand is he raising the river with. A better question is what worse hand is he raisint the Turn with?

The only possible hand that we beat that I think BB holds is KQ. He called PF so KQ, KJ, K9clubs, MAYBE K6s but I doubt it. QT is a VERY real possibility as is 99. (he seems pretty tight w/ PFRs). Maybe 66 but I doubt it since he's probably folding the flop (?).

Biggest case for a fold is that he has gone from passively calling PF, cold-calling the flop, waking up on the Turn.

I aggree that it's tough to lay down and the river probably causes us to lose even 2 more bets.

8 likely K combos (out of which we beat 4 KQ)

16 QT combos

3 99 combos

so let me check my math w/ you guys --

27 - 4 = 23 / 4 = 5.75:1 (is this part correct... we are losing 5.75 times for every one time??) 1/6.65 = 14.8 % of the time we beat his possible holdings (????).

is it ok to just do 4/27 instead? It's the same fricken number.

Fold turn.

EDIT: Changed mis-typed "7.75" to "6.75"

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
For the bet/callers, what are you guys putting the BB on when he raises the turn that the river K changes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Counterfeited two pair hands like J9, J6s or 96s are all possible holdings IMO.

[carlosblack]

Disclaimer: I don't know what I am talking about, feel free to correct me.

The story:
filve limpers who fold preflop: a lot of dead money.

Button preFlop: bet here can mean anything.
Button flop: bet here can mean anything. fold after raise confirms it. Nothing to see here.

Hero preFlop: call here from sb can mean anything. With AK and six people already in it is almost criminal to just call.
Hero flop: raise here means you don't have a made hand and want to force people out.
Hero turn: bet here means you think that BB is on a flush draw, it is necesary to check EDIT: I mean it is necesary to check if BB is on a flush draw. It is necesary to bet here. When BB raises you can discount the draw, he has a made hand two pair or better.

BB preflop: call here can mean anything.
BB flop: this call is bad news, with a draw he would raise or fold. I have to think two pairs or higher with six people to act behind him. A flush draw is also possible especially if he has the Qh. worse case scenario he has QT for a flopped straight.
BB turn: raise here shows the same made hand that you paid good money to see on the flop. At least you know that he is not chasing a flush draw.

On the river:
The flush did not come (you know BB does not have it, but he might have been scared of it). This is a very good card since BB will probably not have the last K. Probable hands:

Beats you: QT, 99, jj?
Losers: J9, two hearts, J6?, 96??

Your choices:
Well, you are not folding.
If he has two hearts he will not call a bet. with J9 he will. If he raises you are probably in trouble (but can't fold)
If you check and he bets calling and raising are both posible, you still don't know what he has.

The only way I make money from a bet is if he has J9, if I check he may bluff with nothing. I am check calling.