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How sure would you have to be that he has a third ten on the flop to lay the hand down?

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I guess I could do the math on it and tell you exactly what % of the time you need to be right to make this +EV....but no one is making those calculations in game.

What I'd think about in tempo is what hands are in his range and what would he play this way? I think most players would incorrectly smooth call a 10 with position here. That's just my instinct for these small stake games. If he's a good player, he wants to price you out of this draw heavy board. He didn't raise enough to price you out. I also think he'd make this raise with any Jack or semi-bluff with a flush draw. My gut instinct says he doesn't have the 10 here very often. So I'd push.