[SA125]

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I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

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Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is.