Re: How to play this nut flush draw
Well, if your estimate that he would fold 40% of the time to your push was correct, then your play was actually a good move. By my calculations, the semibluff push is +EV all the way down to about a 15% chance that he folds. The only question is if your folding probablity estimate was correct, and that is of course highly read-dependent and impossible to accurately specify.
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