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Forum: Psychology 06-18-2004, 07:11 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 158
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: I need help coping.

[ QUOTE ]
Someone has to be unlucky, just as someone has to win a bad beat jackpot. Its 2 ends of the scale.

I can see you aren't convinced by the math, so think of it this way instead:

1)...
Forum: Probability 06-18-2004, 06:32 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 175
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Standard Deviation

[ QUOTE ]
You should only expect to make a pair (or two pair, trips, or quads) with an unpaired hand on the flop 32.43% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you show me how you come up with 32.43?
...
Forum: Psychology 06-18-2004, 05:32 AM
Replies: 21
Views: 158
Posted By MyNameIsMud
I need help coping.

I find myself in a position I am ill equiped to deal with. A few weeks ago I began to suspect party poker flop deals have become bias against me. Please read the post before flamimg me.


Some...
Forum: Probability 06-18-2004, 04:46 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 175
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Standard Deviation

[ QUOTE ]

These results might seem suspicious but you need to keep a few things in mind. First some perspective. The probability of rolling a 12 while playing craps is 2.8%. You have seen...
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 11:13 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Party Poker Player Bias

If the proposition that Party is cheating wasn't so absurd, I would have been gone a long time ago. I must know. I will gladly eat my hat at the end of this.
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 10:47 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Party Poker Player Bias

Well maybe party is not rigged, then I must have worse luck than over 99% of party poker players.

I will keep posting blocks of 5K hands until I resolve this. I play 3 or 4 tables at Party...
Forum: Probability 06-16-2004, 06:53 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 175
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Standard Deviation

Thanks for taking the time to do this and not calling me a nut.

-MyNameIsMud
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 06:27 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
of an event like "hit a set or better with a pocket pair" should be roughly equal to the square root of the expected number of hits.

Based on your numbers, you should have had 197 hits...
Forum: Probability 06-16-2004, 10:09 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 175
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Standard Deviation

I posted this on the internet forum, and am posting it here in hopes that someone could direct me to someplace I can find the math I need to answer my questions, or if someone has some other...
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 09:54 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Party Poker Player Bias

That is basically the point of posting this, I do understand downswings, but this honestly seems to go too far, 36/204 is a huge number after 1675 flops, 16%, and I just have trouble believing it....
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 09:32 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Party Poker Player Bias

I was calculating the chances of hitting a two outer with 3 cards dealt, hitting at least one out.

I admit I do not have a background in math, but I fail to see how your point makes any...
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 09:05 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Re: Party Poker Player Bias

Flop a set (or quads) 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 6/49 = 12.24%
12.24% of 1675 = 204.3

No?



At least 1 A on flop (no A in hand) 4/50 + 4/49 + 4/48 = 12/49 = 24.48% ??

24.4% of 93 = 21.8
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-16-2004, 08:39 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 99
Posted By MyNameIsMud
Party Poker Player Bias

Ok I know what everyone is thinking, another Party is rigged post. That may be true but this is different, please read the whole post before flaming me.

background:
I have been playing online...
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