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Forum: Sports Betting 04-24-2005, 01:08 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 84
Posted By Hombre
Post for DougOzzz

Hey Doug,

I have been playing around with the Bill James pythagorean model you posted here a few weeks ago and have had some moderate success but today's game Yankee-Ranger game made me think...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-19-2005, 05:29 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 86
Posted By Hombre
Re: Money Line Arbitrage

I absolutely love finding arbs. However, I have found that the opportunities in MLB are very limited. If you are using online sportsbooks, you need a considerable capital investment to carry...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-16-2005, 10:10 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 80
Posted By Hombre
MLB 4/16 and Scalping

Is anyone on this forum experienced with scalping MLB lines? I'm really interested in some more information/strategy for this. What online sportsbooks are the best and most reliable for baseball...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-10-2005, 07:57 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 774
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB 4/10

With regard to talent I agree with Doug. Johan is far superior. K/9, BB/9, HR/9. I do think that the moneyline on the Sox could be a +EV play and the ml on Johan is more than likely too high. ...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-08-2005, 11:42 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 134
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB 4/8 and beyond

I like Col. at +140 as well. Jeff Francis does have tremendous upside, but Lowry is a decent prospect also. Regardless of the outcome watching these two pitch may be valuable for betting later in...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-07-2005, 01:58 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 252
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB Thursday 4/7

Ouch... Better hope Affeldt gets some innings or else I'm toast.

hombre
Forum: Sports Betting 04-07-2005, 01:23 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 252
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB Thursday 4/7

For what it's worth Magglio wasn't in the starting lineup today against KC...

Hombre
Forum: Sports Betting 04-07-2005, 11:24 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 252
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB Thursday 4/7

I was responding to your earlier post where you made the analogy, albeit a poor one, to being dealt pocket Aces and leaving the table. "What are the odds I'm going to get aces twice, ya know". I...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-07-2005, 11:03 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 252
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB Thursday 4/7

In my opinion the Indians vc White Sox game is similar to our Beckett -1.5 discussion from Monday. I think Cle and Chi are equally bad and give the nod to Cliff Lee on the mound. You have no idea...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-07-2005, 12:45 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 252
Posted By Hombre
MLB Thursday 4/7

I really like Greinke vs. the Tigers tomorrow. The kid can pitch. Also, Magglio left early with dizziness lingering from the flu he caught at the end of spring training.

Right now I like KC +130...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-05-2005, 01:22 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 218
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB 4/5

Thank you for the response. That is extremely helpful. Have to love it when someone refers to BP, easily the most insightful baseball analysis around.

I have a couple questions for you though. ...
Forum: Sports Betting 04-05-2005, 11:39 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 218
Posted By Hombre
Re: MLB 4/5

I am new to baseball betting, can someone please explain the difference between betting moneylines and the standard 1.5 run spread? Any statistical evidence would be great.

In reference to...
Forum: Sports Betting 03-26-2005, 02:46 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 80
Posted By Hombre
Elite 8 Games Sat. and Sun

I have some thoughts on the upcoming Elite 8 games. I live in Austin and watched both Mich. St beat Duke and Kentucky beat Utah. I'm all over MSU. I am typically skeptical of Big Ten basketball...
Forum: Sports Betting 01-06-2005, 02:44 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 121
Posted By Hombre
Re: NCAAB 1/5

Nice call. I also took Vandy and Nova last night. Noticed that Houston was a home dog against Louisville (ranked #17). Line was 10.5 and U of Houston won the game..

There are a couple tonight...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-08-2004, 07:01 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 84
Posted By Hombre
Re: nba picks 12/8

Really like the over in the Magic/Jazz game. 202.


Hombre
Forum: Sports Betting 12-02-2004, 05:54 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 84
Posted By Hombre
Re: Line Moves And How To Use Them

Interesting you bring this question up. I did a research paper in my last Econometrics class on this exact question. I agree with your logic that's precisely why I chose the topic.

Just a...
Forum: Sports Betting 12-01-2004, 08:22 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 137
Posted By Hombre
Re: NCAA Hoops 12/1

The line for the Tech game has moved to -15. Please tell me why you like this pick and why I shouldn't take SMU here.

Tech looks lost without Andre Emmet and was beat handily by TCU earlier. I...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-30-2004, 08:25 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 123
Posted By Hombre
Re: nba picks 11/30

Anyone else like the Spurs in Dallas tonight? Dallas has two home losses (Suns and Twolves) so far this year. I'm taking the Spurs at -1.5 for a small bet tonight. Boring, but solid fundamentals...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2004, 09:29 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 88
Posted By Hombre
Re: College Hoops 11/27

Well... Foot in mouth, Providence got rolled... Florida outscored them by ten in the second half.

Hombre
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2004, 05:36 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 88
Posted By Hombre
Re: College Hoops 11/27

Valid point about the travel and how it affects their play. I am less worried though about a rested Florida team. They are young and fairly inexperienced. I think their inexperience will show...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-27-2004, 04:54 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 88
Posted By Hombre
College Hoops 11/27

Going with a couple of dogs tonight in NCAA bball.

One game I really like

Providence at Florida Providence +8.5 (line just move to +7 in the last hour)

Only loss was on the road to a...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-26-2004, 08:48 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 88
Posted By Hombre
Re: nba picks 11/26

These games I like tonight.

Cavs vs. Celtics over 189. Also like Cavs on the money line but haven't bet it yet.

Heat vs. Pistons under 187

Clippers +1 against Golden State.

Spurs at...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-23-2004, 08:34 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 83
Posted By Hombre
Re: quick ncaa pick 11/23

I took Santa Clara +8.5 against Pacific and UNC at -9.5

One play I don't do as much as I used to. Took two home moneyline favorites in a parlay. Nuggets at home against the Nets and the Lakers...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-23-2004, 02:36 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 80
Posted By Hombre
Re: cbb picks 11/22

Nice call on UNC. Ended up betting it at -13, thought about it and decided to bet more at -13.5. Didn't get the Duke line until it was -13 so I pushed there and Louisville lost to an Iowa team that...
Forum: Sports Betting 11-22-2004, 06:02 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 80
Posted By Hombre
Re: cbb picks 11/22

Hey CC,
I like your NBA and NFL analysis but I'm curious why you are so crazy about the UNC game tonight. I haven't seen much of them this year but they did lose to Santa Clara.

I took Lousivlle...
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