Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $50 NL (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">MP : (Villain)/ ($45.45)</font>
CO ($42.01)
Button ($54.25)
SB ($40.31)
BB ($21.90)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($63.83)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP : (Villain)/ calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, Villain calls $4.

Turn: ($12.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, Villain calls $3.

River: ($24.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, Villain...

Villain is loose-passive (77/13/0.80), I put him on a King. Is this +EV? Feel free to analyze any streets.

Re: Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

If you really want to try and take this pot down raise the turn to 12. He isnt folding to the minraise and most players are less likely to fold to a river bluff because they do not have to call anymore bets.

Re: Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

No basically.

A player with those numbers is so horrible that attempting to bluff them off hands is always going to be counter productive. I doubt he even folds a K often enough to make this a good bet never mind if he has an A/6

Re: Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

This isn't exactly a semi-bluff, you're only really drawing to a third Queen.

Especially if villain is loose-passive, you're only throwing chips away in my opinion.

Re: Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

No offense, but the 4th st. check-raise was pretty weak.

Why do you put him on a King? Although a King is possible, so is an Ace or a Middle Pocket Pair (99-77)

I think you should be going for a cheap showdown at the River because there's a chance you're best (uncertain as it may be). The villain looks like he has a high WTSD%, making it unlikely to induce a fold.

Re: Is this semi-bluff +EV?
 

First of all, this isn't a semi-bluff. A semi-bluff is when you bet/raise without a made hand (i.e., you have nothing), but you have a decent chance of making the best hand in the future.

As for whether or not its +EV...

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is loose-passive (77/13/0.80

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and

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on a King

[/ QUOTE ]


Save a play like this for an opponent who will fold marginal hands, not one who will pay you off with mid pairs.