Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?
 

i went 0-10 then 4/3/0/1 my next set

Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?
 

Thanks for clearing that up Noah.

Yeah just realised that although it's a 1.68% chance of losing all 8 out of 8 for a single set, all the inferences I made from that were wrong.

Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?
 

It happens all the time.
In the past 2 days I've had 36 games without a win, then 1 win, then 40 games without a win, then 9 wins out of 24. (worst ootm streak only 13 though) I am somehow still sane. Or never have been [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?
 

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Thanks for clearing that up Noah.

Yeah just realised that although it's a 1.68% chance of losing all 8 out of 8 for a single set, all the inferences I made from that were wrong.

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NP. Probability math sucks and should die anyway, and is always much easier to correct than do.

(I'm mainly posting on these boards now because I stayed in tonight to work on probability hw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?
 

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I'm estimating a 20% ROI player would probably have an ITM close to 40%, so OOTM of 60%.

Pr(OOTM 8 times of 8)=0.6^8=0.0168=1.68%

So basically if you divide the games you play into sets of 8 a player with a 40% ITM can EXPECT to finish OOTM in all 8 SNGs from the set about once every 60 sets, or 480 games.

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This is wrong. There are 60 sets of 8 consecutive games in 67 games. Your odds of finishing OOTM 8 in a row in a set of N games is thus given by 100*(1-(.9832)^(N-7)) where N > 8. I think that should be right.

Streaks are very common. In 100 games, expect to see a set of 8 OOTM in a row ~80% of the time. This assumes your OOTM is 60%. If it's not, replace .9832 with (1-OOTM^8).

Hope this helps.

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I've read this about 4 times now. My head hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]