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Old 09-17-2005, 09:44 PM
1C5 1C5 is offline
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Default Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

For a 20% ROI player?

This has been happening to me this month about 80% of the days that I have played. It is incredible. Just wondering the math behind this happening so much. I really don't think it should be happening that much (therefore, I suck this month/new leak/really, really unlucky).

Thanks.
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Old 09-17-2005, 09:46 PM
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

I think we would need an ITM % as oppose to ROI.
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Old 09-17-2005, 09:47 PM
deathpotato deathpotato is offline
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

Your ITM would be a lot more useful than your ROI to figure this out. And it's not very unlikely, even if you cash 40% of the time you will have 8 in a row OOTM every 60 games or so.
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Old 09-17-2005, 09:55 PM
Seth Money Seth Money is offline
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

[ QUOTE ]
Your ITM would be a lot more useful than your ROI to figure this out. And it's not very unlikely, even if you cash 40% of the time you will have 8 in a row OOTM every 60 games or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that I had a 42% ITM and had about 6 or 7 streaks likes this +/- 1 tourney over 600 tourneys.

It sucks when its like

5- 4ths
3- 5ths
2- 6ths

but it happens. The geniouses here can give you a percentage, not I.

Seth
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  #5  
Old 09-17-2005, 09:57 PM
MegaBet MegaBet is offline
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

Welcome to the rough end of variance.
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Old 09-17-2005, 10:10 PM
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

I'm estimating a 20% ROI player would probably have an ITM close to 40%, so OOTM of 60%.

Pr(OOTM 8 times of 8)=0.6^8=0.0168=1.68%

So basically if you divide the games you play into sets of 8 a player with a 40% ITM can EXPECT to finish OOTM in all 8 SNGs from the set about once every 60 sets, or 480 games.
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Old 09-17-2005, 10:57 PM
1C5 1C5 is offline
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

Yeah my ROI is right around 40.

Thanks for the calculations.
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  #8  
Old 09-17-2005, 11:18 PM
deathpotato deathpotato is offline
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

OK I've always been a little confused about this, hopefully someone can straighten it out - you say that every 60 sets you should have an 8 OOTM streak, which is the same figure I came up with, but I'm defining the sets as every consecutive 8 games, so that any game that's not within the first or last 8 is effectively counted 8 times, while with your method each game is in only one set. i.e. if these were your stats:

ITM, OOTM, ITM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, ITM, OOTM, OOTM, ITM

you would have 3 sets of 8 games in that selection, rather than 1.25. It strikes me that my method makes more sense, because when you look at it the other way a run of 10 like:

ITM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, OOTM, ITM

would not be considered a run of 8 OOTM - you had 7 OTM in your first 8 and 1 in the next two. Am I wrong? Also, my stats seem to agree much more with my figure than yours.
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Old 09-17-2005, 11:29 PM
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

Yeah my calculation is taking 8 games as seperate. So if you play in sets of 8 and you ITM first 4 and lose the next 4. And in the next set record the first 4 as OTM and then ITM for the next 4. Then my calculations wouldn't account for that.

So to take this into account, the running total of OOTM, not looking at each set individually you would have to divide by 8. But for a running total if you had OOTM of 9, it would be counted as 2 streaks of 8 and 16 OOTM would be 8 streaks of OOTM 8 times in a row. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

So it's gotta be more than 8 OOTM every 60 games as well but less than 480. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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Old 09-17-2005, 11:57 PM
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm estimating a 20% ROI player would probably have an ITM close to 40%, so OOTM of 60%.

Pr(OOTM 8 times of 8)=0.6^8=0.0168=1.68%

So basically if you divide the games you play into sets of 8 a player with a 40% ITM can EXPECT to finish OOTM in all 8 SNGs from the set about once every 60 sets, or 480 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. There are 60 sets of 8 consecutive games in 67 games. Your odds of finishing OOTM 8 in a row in a set of N games is thus given by 100*(1-(.9832)^(N-7)) where N > 8. I think that should be right.

Streaks are very common. In 100 games, expect to see a set of 8 OOTM in a row ~80% of the time. This assumes your OOTM is 60%. If it's not, replace .9832 with (1-OOTM^8).

Hope this helps.
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