Do I need the free card here?
 

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

MP1 seems like a reasonable TAG PF and more on the pasive side post flop. Not a lot of hands with him.

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks?

I thought so... as I lost part of my reason for playing the hand on the flop (the BDFD). Also, his nature suggests that he might not bet a mid strength Ax hand on the turn.

Opinions?

THanks,

psw

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

Bet the turn, check the river. The free card is more likely to help him than you.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I would avoid giving him a free card on the turn and rather check behind on the river. If you check behind, he is most likely going to bet the river in which case you have to call so it costs the same.
Rather give him the chance now to fold a queen which might make 2 pair or trips on the river.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I'm thinking that you should bet again here. While he probably does have you outkicked, he just might have the Q here (maybe something like QJs). I give him one chance to fold. You're probably going to pay off the river here anyway so I would bet here and go for the free showdown UI.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

How does everyone feel about the flop raise? This board isn't very scary and your hand isn't that vulnerable. Howver, the pot is 4-way

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

That's true. In a bigger pot it would be more valuable to increase your winning chances. This small perhaps calling would be closer.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's true. In a bigger pot it would be more valuable to increase your winning chances. This small perhaps calling would be closer.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not seeing the argument for calling instead of raising

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I don't see why we'd need a free card, it's not like we're drawing to anything in particular. I bet again. I ain't scurr.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

This post made me rethink always raising with TPNK in these type of spots. If you're ahead here and you raise the villain's going to fold the worse hand on the flop. Also, the other people in the pot are now going to fold their hopeless hands instead of sticking around for another bet when they're drawing thin. If you're behind you will sometimes lose an extra 1/2 small bet but not always (sometimes you'll get reraised). In a big pot, I'm more concerned with getting the other players out and increasing my winning chances. While this hand isn't quite like the one that I linked where villain may have had a weak K you're probably right. Here a raise probably is correct. It's just that now I don't always default to raising with TPNK after the bettor.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I think a raise on the flop is good here. It is important to realize that it is not always necessary to raise weak top pairs on the flop. Here, though, there are a couple of reasons to do so:

1. MP1 didn't enter for a raise. That means it's less likely he has a big A. He may be betting a Q or something even worse. We have a pretty good reason to think we have the best hand now and should raise for value.

2. The board does have gutshot possibilities and other stuff. We'd like to encourage players with hands like 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to fold. While many of the hands that our opponents with gutshots (say JT) and so forth will not really have the immediate odds to call one bet, they do have implied odds, and we'd like to reduce the reverse implied odds which we are laying to the field.

3. We have no obvious reason to wait for the turn to raise. We don't have such a big hand that we want to try to extract extra value, and the board is not scary enough (no flush draw or one card straight draw, no vulnerability to overcards) that waiting for a safe card makes sense.

So I think it's probably good to just go ahead and play this pretty straightforwardly and raise.

Turn we really, really, really need to bet. We don't have that many outs against hands that are beating us (only 3 against a better A, none against a straight or a set, 5 against a hand like KQ). The board has gotten pretty scary now; with one card straight draws out there that we don't have, a free card is MUCH more likely to help your opponent than it is to help you.

So bet the turn and fold to a raise.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I agree with raising the flop here. A bit of a side-track though. When I first read this hand I misread the board. So now I have a theoretical question:

If the board was say 2h Ac Qh, would people call or raise the flop?

I was thinking that calling is a good option as we can get overcalls to add value to our flush draw, and we can play our tpnk passively for concealment. If nobody overcalls we can play wa/wb to showdown.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with raising the flop here. A bit of a side-track though. When I first read this hand I misread the board. So now I have a theoretical question:

If the board was say 2h Ac Qh, would people call or raise the flop?

I was thinking that calling is a good option as we can get overcalls to add value to our flush draw, and we can play our tpnk passively for concealment. If nobody overcalls we can play wa/wb to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.

[/ QUOTE ]

But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with.

I'm probably just overthinking this though...

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.

[/ QUOTE ]

But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with.

I'm probably just overthinking this though...

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a bigger A, we have 12 outs, and so are only a slight dog on the flop. I'm not at all worried about sets or top two pair, since AA and QQ are raising hands for almost anyone and I'm not willing to get too worried about 22 yet. Q2 seems pretty unlikely if the player isn't a total donkey. We are in pretty good shape with counterfeit outs against A2. Also, many of the bigger As raise pre-flop anyway.

So my point is that our hand is really quite good. I think that you are underestimating the chances that we simply have the best hand here. Rather than thinking about it as "getting heads-up with a draw against a better hand," I recommend thinking about it as "getting a bunch of bets in with a nut draw and a hand that is very often best." The basic point is that when we're ahead we're WAY ahead and when we're behind we're only slightly behind. If we're ahead any reasonably amount of the time a raise is quite clear in my opinion.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.

[/ QUOTE ]

But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with.

I'm probably just overthinking this though...

[/ QUOTE ]

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we're forgoing to much value by not raising the flop in that situation. We have such a massive equity edge that we want to get as many bets in on the flop as possible. Sure, we'd like other players to stay along, but some might call two cold and if that happens even a small amount of the time we get so much value from raising that a raise is definitely better.

[/ QUOTE ]

But our equity edge is only "massive" when there are this many players in the pot. I feel like a raise does nothing but isolate us against a possibly bigger ace, and possibly face a 3-bet and turn bet from 2-pair or a set. Plus, the pot is not that big to start with.

I'm probably just overthinking this though...

[/ QUOTE ]

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet... thanks for the numbers, TME.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn we really, really, really need to bet. We don't have that many outs against hands that are beating us (only 3 against a better A

[/ QUOTE ]
You actually have 3 winning outs and at least 7 chopping outs against Ax that hasn't yet made 2 pair. Part of me says this should be an argument for "checking behind with outs", but as I see it, it's an argument for betting since, EV-wise, the bet costs less when behind and I really want to charge Qx or a gutshot (w/ 2 clubs).

And while I'm in favor of raising this particular flop, calling is more often correct with A/WK than any other TP/WK because overcards can't hurt you. On an uncoordinated flop such as this, I could be convinced that calling is correct.

edit: changed "checking" to "calling" in the paragraph discussing the flop.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn we really, really, really need to bet. We don't have that many outs against hands that are beating us (only 3 against a better A

[/ QUOTE ]
You actually have 3 winning outs and at least 7 chopping outs against Ax that hasn't yet made 2 pair. Part of me says this should be an argument for "checking behind with outs", but as I see it, it's an argument for betting since, EV-wise, the bet costs less when behind and I really want to charge Qx or a gutshot (w/ 2 clubs).

And while I'm in favor of raising this particular flop, checking is more often correct with A/WK than any other TP/WK because overcards can't hurt you. On an uncoordinated flop such as this, I could be convinced that checking is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

My main point throughout this thread is that too many people are simply underestimating how good hero's hand is. With top pair, even with weak kicker, I'm betting down for value all the way and betting the river barring any further aggression, because I have no reason to believe that villain has a better A and I'm getting called by Qs and even smaller pocket pairs sometimes.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, you added a heart to the flop.

We have top pair and a backdoor flush draw, not top pair and a flush draw.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, this helps, I really didn't think we had equity on a bigger ace.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, you added a heart to the flop.

We have top pair and a backdoor flush draw, not top pair and a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

These numbers are following up Krimson's later question about whether it's worth raising the flop if there is another heart.

I think it's pretty clear we should raise in both situations.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the record, you added a heart to the flop.

We have top pair and a backdoor flush draw, not top pair and a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick, this was a for a question I was asking as to how the hand would change if the 2 was a heart, and whether we should be trying to get overcalls on the flop or not.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, this helps, I really didn't think we had equity on a bigger ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

It actually matters quite a bit more than I thought how much bigger his ace is, due to the possibility of chopping. We're .609 against A6 but .509 against AJ.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

What happens if you apply a range to this, including the possiblity of him having 2-pair with his ace, or having a set? (or only having QJ or something?).

I'd do this myself but i'm at work and don't have PokerStove here. Does PokerStove require an installation? Maybe I can sneak a copy of it in for the future.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h - qs 9h -- 2h as qh
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 231 25.58 532 58.91 140 15.50 0.333
Ah 5h 401 44.41 362 40.09 140 15.50 0.522
Qs 9h 131 14.51 772 85.49 0 0.00 0.145

pokenum -h ad 8c - ah 5h -- 2h as qh / qs 9h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing As Qh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c Ad 303 33.55 401 44.41 199 22.04 0.446
Ah 5h 401 44.41 303 33.55 199 22.04 0.554

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, you added a heart to the flop.

We have top pair and a backdoor flush draw, not top pair and a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

These numbers are following up Krimson's later question about whether it's worth raising the flop if there is another heart.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, sorry, I missed the question.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What happens if you apply a range to this, including the possiblity of him having 2-pair with his ace, or having a set? (or only having QJ or something?).

I'd do this myself but i'm at work and don't have PokerStove here. Does PokerStove require an installation? Maybe I can sneak a copy of it in for the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing but I didn't want to install it at work either [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

It would bprobably be misleading since villian is so much more likely to have A-mid/Q-mid here than anything else.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

I think I like a bet-fold on the turn against this opponent. I know we don't have a lot of hands on Villain yet, but it doesn't sound like he's a big threat to checkraise with, say, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

If he would checkraise with a hand like A8s that we effectively have 14.5 outs against (mostly to a chop) or a hand like A6s that we effectively have 18.5 outs against, then bet-folding becomes very dangerous, and part of our decision would involve whether or not we think bet-calling is better than checking behind on the turn.

Re: Do I need the free card here?
 

About the flop raise:

I like a raise here as I will get calls from queens often while protecting a possibly best hand against gutshots. If the middle card were something like the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] though, I think I'd rather just call. This flop is close in my mind at least.