BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Let me tell you about my big problem. To some of you it may seem absurd. Others may be able to relate.

Long story:
About a week ago, I found $120 worth of bookstore gift cards in my wallet, and ordered a few poker books, including HEFAP, because although I had been a NL50 player up to this point, I wanted to learn to play mid stakes limit better. Anyways, after reading HEFAP, I jumped into the 3/6 limit games at Party, and since then have been on an unbelievable run. In 3 days, 2300 hands at 3/6, i was up almost 230BB. Today, I've started playing some 5/10 6-max and after 230 hands, I'm up 39BB. All in all, I'm up $1750 in 4 days. However, the problem is that I'm almost EXPECTING to flop sets, and hit my gutshots. Reviewing my play at 5/10 6-max, I've realized that some of it is horrible. I'm playing way too aggressive, treating my 4-outers as if they are 10-outers, playing mediocre hands out of position. While I'm still hitting my gutshots and sets this isn't a huge problem, but I am extremely afraid of what is going to happen once I start to run bad, and how this might affect my play and profitability.

Short story:
I've been on a ridiculous run over the past few days, and I've hit so many gutshots and sets that I'm practically expecting them to occur now, and I'm playing accordingly.


Has this happened to anyone else here?
And what do you think I can do, either to immediately repair the problem, or to guard against a potential large downswing?

Even if all you can tell me is to smarten up and start focusing on my play, I would appreciate it. Even though I know statisically that a bad run of cards is no more likely to occur now than it was a month ago, I can't shake the feeling that I'm going to hit a big downswing soon.

Anyways, sorry for the length of this post, and sorry for essentially whining about how good I've been running.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

This is a problem that will be taking care of itself shortly. There's no need for you to be concerned. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Same thing happened to me when I started out. Huge rush at 5/10. Had a VP$IP of ~40%, and was Mr. Aggro. Felt like I was a Poker God.

During the crash, I lost it all except 60BB. Just something you gotta go through once, I think. But hey, you know you're playing like an idiot, maybe you don't.

But like I said. Either you fix the problem, or it fixes itself. No biggie [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

I would stop playing for a little while. Read some books or change to a slightly different game. I had a similiar run not too long ago where my bankroll surged from ~2200 to 5k in about 10 days playing 3-6 and 5-10 and then for the next week or two after that I was obsessed with finding ways to keep it up or make money faster. I tried 8 tabling (which I just couldn't handle... actually only got to 6 tables before I decided against it)and I tried stepping up into the 5-10 6max game with no preparation or ideas for adjusting my game I just figured I could take a shot since I had some additional BR.

Well, it didn't take me long to realize what had happened and I decided to cash out my rather substantial (for me) win and take a little break (I hadn't read SSH yet). After reading SSH and doing some other stuff I redeposited 1600 and grabbed a $200 bonus and went back to work on the 3-6 games.

So uh, take a break. Or barring a break play some live games or stud or omaha or tourneys... something to break things up so you are thinking a little more subjectively about the cards.

cjx

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Your true test will be how you handle yourself when the big downswing hits and the more you analyze and correct your play now, the softer the downswing will hit you.

Smarten up and focus on your play.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Enjoy the good run, and make sure you remember it when the cards run the other way.

It's delightful to hear someone talking about good luck. I wish more people did it.

Regards,

Al

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

First, take some money OF THE TABLE. If that means some of your windfall from live games needs to go into a savings account, then do it.

If you are online, have a check sent.

The last thing you want is to bleed your bankroll on a downswing. A downswing after a good upswing may cause people to try to "muscle" a new upswing. And that is as effective as muscling a tornado.

After you take some money off the table, then within reason keep playing the upswing until it is over. When you "feel" the things reversing, then take a hiatus.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

I recently had a run of +16BB/100 for a span of
almost 2500 hands......

Was starting to mentally write an article on how
to beat "these games"......

Ran +0.1BB/100 for the next 4200 hands.....

Just handle your emotions and try to play well.
The biggest thing is staying mentally composed
and on your game, keep reviewing the book on a
regular basis (you miss stuff, as well as sometimes
forget or misinterpret) and have lots of fun.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Good that you've realized you're running good.

Take all but 300$ out, put the rest to good use. Take that 300$ and grind it out at .5/1. It may seem like you're playing for pennies and wasting your time, but do it. Get up to 600$, move up to 1/2. If you ever drop down to 500$, move back down to .5/1 and build back up to 600$.

Get to 1200$, play 2/4. Same thing for dropping down (if you get to 1000$).

Study, play hard, and stop wasting your sklansky bucks.

You're not gonna wanna do this. You're gonna think "Well if I just stay at 3/6 and start playing good, I'll be fine."

That's not true, if you stay at 3/6, you will lose.

Poker's been very good to you, don't squander it. Put that $1400 somewhere safe and go down to .5/1 where you can learn without pissing your money back.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good that you've realized you're running good.

Take all but 300$ out, put the rest to good use. Take that 300$ and grind it out at .5/1. It may seem like you're playing for pennies and wasting your time, but do it. Get up to 600$, move up to 1/2. If you ever drop down to 500$, move back down to .5/1 and build back up to 600$.

Get to 1200$, play 2/4. Same thing for dropping down (if you get to 1000$).

Study, play hard, and stop wasting your sklansky bucks.

You're not gonna wanna do this. You're gonna think "Well if I just stay at 3/6 and start playing good, I'll be fine."

That's not true, if you stay at 3/6, you will lose.

Poker's been very good to you, don't squander it. Put that $1400 somewhere safe and go down to .5/1 where you can learn without pissing your money back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, are you kidding me?

1) I constantly take money out of my account and deposit in my bank, I probably do this twice a month.
2) I feel that I am a profitable 3/6 player, it was only over the past day or so that I felt a bit of tilt coming on from my wins, and I think taking some time off has solved that
3) I'm sure as hell not going to cut my expected hourly rate by something like 75%
4) I was playing 0.5/1 about 8 months ago, and beating it to my satisfaction, as a result of this I moved to higher limits, which I also beat to my satisfaction. I really see no point in going back to square one and starting this over again.

I could probably think of a few other reasons as to why this post is completely ridiculous, but it's fairly late and I'm heading to bed.

Sorry if I came across a bit harsh, perhaps you misunderstood my circumstances and thought I was "taking a shot" at the higher limits without proper BR and experience, but if not, I stand behind my response.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

[ QUOTE ]

Umm, are you kidding me?

1) I constantly take money out of my account and deposit in my bank, I probably do this twice a month.
2) I feel that I am a profitable 3/6 player, it was only over the past day or so that I felt a bit of tilt coming on from my wins, and I think taking some time off has solved that
3) I'm sure as hell not going to cut my expected hourly rate by something like 75%
4) I was playing 0.5/1 about 8 months ago, and beating it to my satisfaction, as a result of this I moved to higher limits, which I also beat to my satisfaction. I really see no point in going back to square one and starting this over again.

I could probably think of a few other reasons as to why this post is completely ridiculous, but it's fairly late and I'm heading to bed.

Sorry if I came across a bit harsh, perhaps you misunderstood my circumstances and thought I was "taking a shot" at the higher limits without proper BR and experience, but if not, I stand behind my response.

[/ QUOTE ]


Read your first post. Nothing about it indicates that you were previously a winning player. The entire tone of the post suggests you're not much of a player and had a good run.

Ex:

[ QUOTE ]
About a week ago, I found $120 worth of bookstore gift cards in my wallet, and ordered a few poker books, including HEFAP, because although I had been a NL50 player up to this point, I wanted to learn to play mid stakes limit better. Anyways, after reading HEFAP, I jumped into the 3/6 limit games at Party, and since then have been on an unbelievable run.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may have known that you had done fine at limit previously, but the only logical conclusion from that paragraph is that you've got very little experience playing limit. Read it again and act like you didn't know yourself, you'll see what I mean.


Anyway, congratuations on your run. The downswing's gonna happen sometime, but there's nothing that says the downswing should be equal to what you won, in fact, it shouldn't be.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Your entire first post said you had little-to-no experience at limit and were playing AWFULLY (but winning)... now you get uppity with a guy for his advice (which I am not saying is good or bad)?

I find you have low class now and hence am not going to waste time with my advice. Keep on hitting those gutshots or something.

You did not state in your first post that you had played lower limit games just NL$50.

[ QUOTE ]
And what do you think I can do, either to immediately repair the problem, or to guard against a potential large downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]

In short I'm sorry, but your response to someone answering that question was insulting to him and you need to hear that.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

[ QUOTE ]
First, take some money OF THE TABLE.

[/ QUOTE ]

what he said. also, realize you need to change your play or you will spiral downwards

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

Congrats on your fine run. And, yes it's happened to lots of us. I recently had the good fortune to run well in Party's $15/$30 for 2 months straight. With session wins of $350-$1,000 and occasional losing sessions of a couple hundred, I was thinking that I really knew what I was doing and it would never end. Well, I let my VP$IP creep up from my ideal (under 20%) to around 30-35% because I expected those flush and straight draws to come in every time like they had been. All of a sudden I started to have a few losing sessions creeping up on $1,000 and even $1,200. I was still way up, but I couldn't believe I could lose $1,200 in a single session, because it had never happened in my good stretch. Then I had a 4 day period where I didn't book a single winning session and I knew I had to refocus.

I took a couple days off, reviewed my favorite Middle Limit poker book and reassessed just what I was doing, right and wrong. For me, I had to tighten back up and play properly, even if those flops looked like my fold of 55 in EP was a mistake. All of a sudden, the winning sessions came back (not as large as when I was playing loose, but they did come back).

Hope it doesn't happen to you, but if you start running badly just make sure you are mentally prepared to handle the big swing down. Playing loose increases your variance so you will win more when you are running really well, but you know the downside too. Suckouts, sometimes one after another for a whole session do happen (I know that from experience).

Anyway, what I would do is tighten up, refocus on playing well, and don't worry about giving back any of that good winning streak you have been on. Good Luck bro

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

this is happening to me as we speak.

i took a stab at the $5/$10 6-max and i'm up about 500BB over roughly 4000 hands. it seems my opponents are folding at all the right times (for me), and calling at all the right times as well. i feel like i'm making mistakes relatively often (being too aggressive at times) but the results have been amazing.

i too fear the day that my streak will end. i actually get a bit nervous before each session, wondering if this is the one that will start a downswing. i had one session where i went down 50BB rather quickly, but i won it all back just as fast.

i'm currently cashing out all profits hoping it'll help me stay in control (the downswings are easier to spot this way). i think if you keep monitoring your game and catch yourself when you start making obviously incorrect plays and take a break when necessary, you should be fine. just don't let yourself get caught in a downward spiral where you catch some bad cards and then get overly loose/aggressive.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Umm, are you kidding me?

1) I constantly take money out of my account and deposit in my bank, I probably do this twice a month.
2) I feel that I am a profitable 3/6 player, it was only over the past day or so that I felt a bit of tilt coming on from my wins, and I think taking some time off has solved that
3) I'm sure as hell not going to cut my expected hourly rate by something like 75%
4) I was playing 0.5/1 about 8 months ago, and beating it to my satisfaction, as a result of this I moved to higher limits, which I also beat to my satisfaction. I really see no point in going back to square one and starting this over again.

I could probably think of a few other reasons as to why this post is completely ridiculous, but it's fairly late and I'm heading to bed.

Sorry if I came across a bit harsh, perhaps you misunderstood my circumstances and thought I was "taking a shot" at the higher limits without proper BR and experience, but if not, I stand behind my response.

[/ QUOTE ]


Read your first post. Nothing about it indicates that you were previously a winning player. The entire tone of the post suggests you're not much of a player and had a good run.

Ex:

[ QUOTE ]
About a week ago, I found $120 worth of bookstore gift cards in my wallet, and ordered a few poker books, including HEFAP, because although I had been a NL50 player up to this point, I wanted to learn to play mid stakes limit better. Anyways, after reading HEFAP, I jumped into the 3/6 limit games at Party, and since then have been on an unbelievable run.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may have known that you had done fine at limit previously, but the only logical conclusion from that paragraph is that you've got very little experience playing limit. Read it again and act like you didn't know yourself, you'll see what I mean.


Anyway, congratuations on your run. The downswing's gonna happen sometime, but there's nothing that says the downswing should be equal to what you won, in fact, it shouldn't be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I should apologize for my reply to your post, it was my fault for not including enough information in my original post about my previous playing experience. I (falsely) assumed that I had indicated in my original post that I had a fair grounding in theory and experience.

However, hopefully you can understand why I was upset in my response when you suggested that I would not win at 3/6 and that I should move down to 0.5/1 before I lost everything. You made the opposite assumption, that I had just started out, and knew nothing of the game. There was nothing in the original message to indicate that either, and I was (visibly) upset that I was being given advice as if I was a complete amateur without bothering to ask about the background details.

Anyways, I apologize for the misunderstanding and for coming across harshly, it was not the intention.

Re: BIG Problem: I\'m running too well
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your entire first post said you had little-to-no experience at limit and were playing AWFULLY (but winning)... now you get uppity with a guy for his advice (which I am not saying is good or bad)?

[/ QUOTE ]

In all fairness, I never mentioned that I was playing awfully. I merely stated that I had played a few of my 5/10 6-max hand horribly on the last day of my run. In fact, I was quite happy with my 3/6 play from the previous few days.

Again, I probably should have been a little clearer in my original post.