Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Here are some reasons it seems to me people decided to vote against John Kerry (as opposed to voting for George Bush):

-He was seen as a "flip-flopper": People saw him as somebody who would change his mind. The poorly worded statement about the $87 billion was symptomatic of why people had this impression and the president and vice president constantly harped on this.

-He was seen as weak compared to Bush: A major reason people voted for Bush was they saw him as a strong leader. Kerry tried to counteract this, but his positions on the war made people think he'd be less strong than Bush as president.

-He is a liberal: Having the most liberal voting record in the senate is a no-no in today's political climate where the word "liberal" is almost a dirty word.

-He ran a poor campaign: He didn't inspire people, nor did he stake out a key issue where he could beat the president. He tried to do it in on Iraq, but people saw Bush as someone they trusted more on the specific war in Iraq and on the more general war on terrorism.

-John Edwards: A complete bust. If anything, he took votes away. He couldn't even deliver his home state.

-Mrs. Kerry: While I don't think many people really care about the wife, she certainly didn't help. While I know very little about Laura Bush, she looks like the kind of person who, if you moved in next door, would come over with a welcome note and a home-baked pie; Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW. This impression might be completely wrong, but my sense is a lot of people had it.

-Swift Boat Veterans: whether they were for truth or not, they certainly hurt Kerry. Kerry had himself to blame, IMO, for putting his service front and center ("John Kerry reporting for duty").

-People thought Kerry would raise their taxes: While Kerry continually said he would do so only if you made over $200,000 a year, his reputation as a liberal, his plan for new programs, and Bush and Cheney constantly saying otherwise, convinced people that it was so.

-He didn't do well in his acceptance speech: He was too sweaty and didn't get a big enough bounce. He didn't inspire confidence in enough people who might have been looking for an alternative to Bush.

-People didn't feel comfortable with him: This might be the most important thing of all. He came across as stiff and forced, too much PR and not enough human being.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I have a few more reasons.

-Michael Moore
-Alec Baldwin
-Bruce Springsteen

Americans hate being told what to do by Hollywood Elitists. Also, Moore took a LOT of credibility away from the Democrats to most Americans.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

here here, Tom!

Good analysis Andy.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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-He was seen as a "flip-flopper": People saw him as somebody who would change his mind. The poorly worded statement about the $87 billion was symptomatic of why people had this impression and the president and vice president constantly harped on this.

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Yeah the perception of being indecisive hurt him a lot IMO.

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-He was seen as weak compared to Bush: A major reason people voted for Bush was they saw him as a strong leader. Kerry tried to counteract this, but his positions on the war made people think he'd be less strong than Bush as president.

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See my comment above.

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-He is a liberal: Having the most liberal voting record in the senate is a no-no in today's political climate where the word "liberal" is almost a dirty word.

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I don't think this hurt him as much as the first two reasons but I think it certainly galvanized an anti-liberal faction opposed to "liberal" candidates.

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-He ran a poor campaign: He didn't inspire people, nor did he stake out a key issue where he could beat the president. He tried to do it in on Iraq, but people saw Bush as someone they trusted more on the specific war in Iraq and on the more general war on terrorism.

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Yeah he seemed to run a poor campaign, however, he came within 130,000 votes or so of winning the election when we objectively look at it. He lost in a Republican majority state by a small margin.

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-John Edwards: A complete bust. If anything, he took votes away. He couldn't even deliver his home state.


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Yeah we've discussed this before. In fairness to Kerry I don't think he really wanted Edwards on the ticket all that much. I think he was encouraged to put Edwards on the ticket for the sake of party unity which was probably a silly idea since the Dems were united anyway.

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-Mrs. Kerry: While I don't think many people really care about the wife, she certainly didn't help. While I know very little about Laura Bush, she looks like the kind of person who, if you moved in next door, would come over with a welcome note and a home-baked pie; Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW. This impression might be completely wrong, but my sense is a lot of people had it.

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I think this was a slight factor.

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-Swift Boat Veterans: whether they were for truth or not, they certainly hurt Kerry. Kerry had himself to blame, IMO, for putting his service front and center ("John Kerry reporting for duty").

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Among veterans I think this hurt Kerry. He should have handled his military service much differently IMO. After the CBS fake documents story though I never saw very many Swift Boat ads. I saw quite a few before the CBS story.

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-People thought Kerry would raise their taxes: While Kerry continually said he would do so only if you made over $200,000 a year, his reputation as a liberal, his plan for new programs, and Bush and Cheney constantly saying otherwise, convinced people that it was so.

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I think you're right on this and I've posted about my feeling before on this.

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-He didn't do well in his acceptance speech: He was too sweaty and didn't get a big enough bounce. He didn't inspire confidence in enough people who might have been looking for an alternative to Bush.

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Yeah I agree.

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-People didn't feel comfortable with him: This might be the most important thing of all. He came across as stiff and forced, too much PR and not enough human being.

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Yeah I agree with this as well. Good analysis.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I would agree that Andy's analysis was good except for the fact that he said a few things like "seen as"and "people thought".

Andy he wasn't "seen as' a flip-floper he is one. He wasn't "ssen as" weak he is weak. People didn't "think" he would raise taxes we were sure of it. His $200,000 spin didn't hold water upon closer examination. His raising the top two tax rates would increase taxes for people making over $89,000 per year. More spin which cost him votes. Very few people are like you Andy and believe the government knows how to spend their money better than they do.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

It didn't matter whether he was a flip-flopper or not or whether he is weak or not. It matters how people see him. Bush campaigned in 2000 against nation-building. Now he's a nation-builder in two countries. But people either didn't see it as a flip-flop, or did and didn't care, or did and felt it is the right thing to do. He also campaigned on fiscal responsibility.

Kerry said over and over again he would only restore the old marginal tax rates on people making over $200,000 a year. No spin; it is what he said dozens of times.

You last comment is just plain silly. I believe the government wastes plenty of my money; everybody does, even those of us who voted for John Kerry. We just disagree with you over which expenses are wastes of money and which are not.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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Kerry said over and over again he would only restore the old marginal tax rates on people making over $200,000 a year. No spin; it is what he said dozens of times.


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The problem is not what he says but what he in fact does. As a Senator he:

Kerry Voted 98 Times For Tax Increases Totaling More Than $2.3 Trillion.
Kerry Voted At Least 126 Times Against Tax Cuts Totaling More Than $5.3 Trillion.
Rolling Back The Bush Tax Cuts Will Not Pay For Kerry’s $2 Trillion In New Spending.

Kerry Voted Against Amendment To FY 2004 Budget Resolution That Would Extend $1,000 Child Tax Credit Until 2013.
Kerry Sponsored And Voted For Motion To Kill Marriage Penalty Relief For Couples Earning Less Than $50,000 Per Year. Kerry Voted Against Eliminating Clinton-Instituted 4.3-Cent Tax On Transportation Fuels.

This in addition to the fact that he says the tax will only be placed on people earning above $200,000 per year but the plan he released shows that it raisies the top two tax rates which in fact does affect those earning above $89,000 per year.

You have in fact said you are in the above $200K tax bracket and are willing to pay higher taxes. What makes you think Kerry would have spent that money wisely? His voting record in the Senate does nat show that to be the case in the past.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Kerry lost simply because he was a very weak candidate. And he's from the Northeast. Most of middle America simply does not wish to be governed by an elitist New England snob (I am aware both Bushes were born in the Northeast, but they managed to shake off that mantle and convince America they were Texans). If the Dems were serious about winning they would have gone w/ Gephart. He'd have had a much better chance against Bush.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Andy,

Nice post. I really think the single thing that hurt Kerry the most was his VP selection. I am convinced that having someone else on his ticket would have bolstered him in several close states.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

The problem can't be in what he does since he hasn't been president yet. The problem is in people's perceptions of what he would do, whether those perceptions are right or wrong. As I pointed out, Kerry is a liberal and people know he is a liberal and feared exactly what you feared. I don't think we're in disagreement here.

It was my perception that Kerry would have spent my tax money in a wiser fashion than Bush will. Your perception is that his voting record in congress confirms that he would not be wise; mine is that Bush's record in office confirms that he will not be wise.

My post listed several things I thought helped defeat Kerry that were negatives for Kerry (as opposed to those issues that helped defeat him that were positives for Bush). Your response indicates to me that, for you, some of those perceptions were valid.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

"Most of middle America simply does not wish to be governed by an elitist New England snob"

I believe I covered this point in my last point about Kerry's coming across as contrived.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Hi Andy,

Respectfully, I disagree with most of this - But I could be wrong. I can't name one thing that he is passionate about. Even his anti-war stance in the 70s seemed calculated.

I think the reason he lost is that he really stood for nothing other than winning. Every position he took was politically calculated. I think that really turned people off more than anything and I believe it is the direct cause of some of the problems you listed (e.g., a bad campaign). He was rudderless.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Well, Bush won with Dick Cheney twice, so I'm not so sure if it was the most important thing. The margin of victory for Bush in both Florida and Missouri was fairly big. But it sure would have given him a better chance.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I said "too much PR and not enough human being" as perhaps the most important thing. So I think we're kinda on the same page here.

More importantly, how are you going to spend my money? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Regards,
Andy

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I dont know. I have to go see if I still have the check LMAO.

If I do, I will donate it to charity. The bet sure was fun. Hopefully, we can wager again in the future.

"too much PR and not enough human being"

We could be on the same page. However, I think it is deeper than this statement. I really believe at the heart of it that Kerry doesn't have strong ideals. It is not just a question of strategy.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Andy,

I largely agree with what you wrote. However, I really think his campaign was one of the most ineptly run in recent history and that was the biggest issue by far. He is, of course, fully complicit in this failure.

I met John Kerry at a private exploratory mtg when he contemplating the candidacy. This was a small function w/ a number of high-tech people in SF. Kerry came across as a charismatic, strong, passionate man of conviction. I was more excited about a Democratic candidate than I have been in some time.

When he actually ran, though, his campaign turned him into some stiff cardboard cutout who really didn't seem to have much passion about anything nor did he seem to ever really connect with people. I really feel that Kerry did a horrible job campaigning for President, where America has consistently shown it wants two things:

1) Someone they can relate to and understand.

2) Someone whose (whether they agree to their politics or not) decision-making process they understand.

Re: #1, even people who think GWB is an idiot feel like they could sit down and have a conversation w/ the guy. I bet many Kerry supporters who know him only from this campaign don't feel the same way about him.

Re: #2, w/ Al Gore, you knew he was going to be a logical, let's figure out the problem type guy. With GWB, you know that he has certain ideals/faith/belief and he's going to use those as guiding principles in making decisions. With John Kerry, I think many were unsure about how he would decide what to do.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I think think this is a good analysis of why Kerry lost, but falls short of what the democrats need, which is a serious analysis (and action to change) why the Democrats in general lost.

-- Democrats in general do not understand the role of faith in the life of the average american, they try to pay lip service to that point, but it is only when "outsider" candidates like Carter or Clinton come along who do actually get it that they win.

-- Democrats in general do not understand the concerns or needs of rural Americans

-- The democratic party nomination process rewards hard-line views on subjects that most Americans don't like hard-liners -- such as abortion.

-- Democrats don't understand that most Americans don't really want the government to take their money on a promise to take care of them. Most Americans want lower government spending and lower taxes, social programs can be good, but you need clear explanations on how you're going to achieve them, not empty promises of not raising taxes.

-- Democrats in general are too hostile towards the military, which is a source of pride for most Americans. I know more than a few democrat leaning ex-military friends who had to hold their nose to vote for Kerry because of his medal incident . . . they voted for him, but really didn't want to. How many more didn't vote for him or voted against him on that issue alone?

The Democrat party will continue to languish, failing to take the house, senate or presidency until they find a way to resonate with the people of "fly-over" country. You can't succeed as a national party when you only have traction in New England and California.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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Here are some reasons it seems to me people decided to vote against John Kerry (as opposed to voting for George Bush):

-He was seen as a "flip-flopper":
-He was seen as weak compared to Bush
-He is a liberal:
-He ran a poor campaign:

-John Edwards: A complete bust.
-Mrs. Kerry:
-Swift Boat Veterans
-People thought Kerry would raise their taxes:
-He didn't do well in his acceptance speech:
-People didn't feel comfortable with him:

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Your points 1, 2 and 4 are all variations on a theme. The last 6 are symptoms of the major problem delineated at the start. His liberal record is also symptomatic, as it is seen by a lot of the rest of the country as Kerry pandering to his state to get elected Senator, rather than as any real convictions or beliefs. Kerry was a liberal of convenience, trying to out-Kennedy Ted Kennedy and the memory of JFK, who was in reality nowhere near as liberal as Teddy or Kerry or as most people today think of him.

If I remember the quote correctly, Gertrude Stein once said that the problem with Oakland was that there was no there there. That's the problem with Kerry: there's no there there. There's nothing there but a suit and an expensive haircut that wants to be president, but can't articulate why he wants it or why we should elect him.

I thought that Bush deserved to be booted out of office for his handling of Iraq, but I had zero confidence that Kerry would be any better as president. I had no sense of who Kerry was and no feeling that he was capable of running a small business, let alone the country. He never struck me as a leader. The only testimony to his leadership, from a minority of those who served with him in Nam, seemed to be more a testimony to avoiding danger to himself and his crew than to any accomplishment. Again, the campaign was symptomatic of this: there was no sense that anyone was in charge, that anyone was actually running the campaign. My impression of the Kerry campaign was of Kerry opening the newspaper in the morning, seeing the crisis du jour, and blaming it on Bush. And then saying that he had a plan to fix it. The plan is in the mail. Kerry had no plan, no policy, just a strategy of "I'm not Bush."

The lack of any determined response to the Swift Boat vets was also symptomatic of weakness. Teresa Heinz can do whatever she wants at home. On the campaign trail, she has to be part of the team. Kerry's inability to make her a team player is a sign of weakness. Kerry's choice of Edwards was weak. There was no indication of thought or strategy here, other than geographic balance, an outdated concept. Edwards is another suit, all image and no substance. There is an appearance there that a reason for picking Edwards was that Kerry didn't want a running mate who was stronger than him. Edwards is more charismatic, but not stronger.

Reality is that image is a large part of politics. The bottom line is Kerry showed us a weak image. He barely came across as competent, let alone presidential. And if you really dug down beneath the image, there was no substance beneath the image.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

One more thing. Someone on one of the networks last night (Novak, maybe) said something very simple that I think sums a lot of things up.

Paraphrasing, it went something like this "America today is a conservative country and the Democrats don't understand the type of candidate America wants to support."

Kopefire touched on a lot of the specifics behind that statement, but I think it sums things up pretty well.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Maybe it also has something to do with the fact that "Nearly 75 percent of President Bush's supporters continue to believe that Iraq either had weapons of mass destruction or a major program to develop them, contrary to official findings, a survey taken this month found." (see for instance http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniont...2iraqpol1.html )

It really blows my mind that Bush got re-elected. I consider this to be a sad, sad day.

Regards

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

SO much of that was hogwash .

He lost because he didn't properly attack BUSH...

This Prez is the worst 1 in my lifetime, shame on ya ALL who couldn't see that.

Big business has a stick so far up BUSH, they are the reason he can barely speak english.

Peace, I hope you like WAR!

>TW<

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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-- Democrats in general do not understand the role of faith in the life of the average american, they try to pay lip service to that point, but it is only when "outsider" candidates like Carter or Clinton come along who do actually get it that they win.

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I was flipping channels last night, and don't remember who said it, but one of the analysts talked about the role of religion in American politics. He said if you looked at the "blue" (Kerry) states versus the "red" (Bush) states, it is clear that faith is much more important and plays a much bigger role in the lives of the people of the red states.

He made two further observations. One, to the extent that religion was any part of Kerry's campaign, it appeared highly contrived, as when Kerry went campaigning at black churches. Two, this religious aspect of American politics is a big reason for the rift between us and "old Europe" (Germany, France, etc.). He didn't talk about it, but it may also be a common cultural link between us and "new Europe" (Poland, former Soviet republics, etc.)

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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He lost because he didn't properly attack BUSH

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I think the overall lesson learned is that a candidate needs to balance his attack of his opponent with offering his own positions. If anything Kerry attacked Bush too much. A successful candidate should strive for a base that is both excited about them and disappointed/angry at their opponent. Nobody wants to vote with one hand and hold their nose with the other --- many are willing to do it, but they don't like it. You aren't going to get the votes from the middle that way.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Hi elwood, I thought the BUSH camps actually attacked too much, the Swift thing was completely underhanded and a bit ridiculous IMHO, we see that the people in the south are unwavering...

This is one deceitful, big business owned and operated by, President, I just hope he can manage to end Middle East conflicts in the next 4 years without alienating us completely.

A president IMHO should have a good command of english and public speaking, W falls a tad short of this, eh?

At least the comedic sector of the economy will enjoy another prosperous 4 more years!
At least the oil sector of the economy will enjoy another prosperous 4 more years!
At least the pharma sector of the economy will enjoy another prosperous 4 more years!
[silver lining!?]]

>TW<

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I agree the swifty thing was pretty bad. The thing is, I don't think people bought into the notion that Bush was behind it or should be held responsible for it.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I have to agree.

I am not a Bush supporter. I was looking for a reason to vote for Kerry. He didn't give me one. I ended up voting Libertarian because even though I disagree on some issues, at least they had coherent positions with positive affirming reasons to vote for them. All Kerry gave me was the "I'm not that jerk" line.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW.

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Priceless. There is a story that the editor of a small midwestern newspaper actually had Bush and Kerry in the room at the same time for an interview. He asked them both the same question:

Both of you come from privileged backgrounds and are members of the upper class. How do you respond to charges that you cannot relate to the common man?

Bush: Well, I love baseball, I clear brush on my ranch, I go down to the coffee shop when I am in Crawford and share stories with my fellow Texans. I AM one of you.

Kerry: Like I care what you people think.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

Bush made the campaign about Bush issues. Kerry could not do the opposite as effectively.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I think it's simpler than that.

The catholic made it only about abortion; the conservatives made it about gay marraige family values and kerry's after war record and Kerry could'nt make it about the economy and Iraq.

Interesting statistic I saw in exit polling only about 53% of union members were voting for Kerry. It used to be that union members were at least 75% Dem. When did the Republican party convince middle class blue collar workers to eat [censored] and ask for more.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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Mrs. Kerry: While I don't think many people really care about the wife, she certainly didn't help. While I know very little about Laura Bush, she looks like the kind of person who, if you moved in next door, would come over with a welcome note and a home-baked pie; Mrs. Kerry would take a meeting and have her secretary send over her chauffer to ask you to not park your car so close to her BMW. This impression might be completely wrong, but my sense is a lot of people had it.

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(italics and bolding above mine)

ROTFLOL! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] My brother told me that he thought my Mom liked Teresa Heinz so I'm going to have to forward a link. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick

PS Hillary versus ? will be fun in 2008. Let's hope we're still around.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

"Let's hope we're still around."

Gee, thanks so much for making what is already a dreary day for this 51 year old liberal even more depressing. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

IMHO, Hillary is unelectable. But we'll see. Both of us. For sure!

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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IMHO, Hillary is unelectable. But we'll see. Both of us. For sure!

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I hope you are correct, that will mean 8 more years of Republican reform.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

If the Democrats run Hillary then they are even more out of touch than what they have shown the past 4 years. That would be a disaster.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

I hope you mean you hope I'm correct that both Rick and I will be around in four years. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hillary might not get the nomination if she runs. As Dynasty has correctly (IMO) pointed out, the system has yeilded so many surprises it's difficult to predict this early what will happen with any degree of certainty.

Re: Some Reasons Kerry Lost
 

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IMHO, Hillary is unelectable. But we'll see. Both of us. For sure!

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I hope you are correct, that will mean 8 more years of Republican reform.

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People like to talk about it, but I think the chances that Hillary actually gets the nomination are very, very slim. I think most top Democrats realize that while a lot of America can grudgingly allow for women and blacks in the Senate, the Presidency is a whole different ballgame.