11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

This is from the 10r rebuy a few nights ago, 1st place is a nice 14K.

this hand happened with 11 people left, with 15-10 getting $500. 9th gets about 1k (quite a huge jump)

I have 1.2 million with blinds at 30k/60k, they will go up to 40k/80k in 7 mins. One interesting thing about this mtt is that the blinds will never go above 60k/120k And there are double limits meaning they will be 40k/80k for 30 mins. I've had no trouble accumulating thus far and have rarely been in coinflip situation. avg stack at this point was 750k.

I pick up AKs in the SB, a tighty UTG player with a little over 600k raises half his stack, i know hes not going anywhere if i raise.


Reasons why I can push

1) Premium hand, I need chips, Possible I have him dominated, Im playing to win, AKs is soo pretty (joking)

Reasons to fold.

1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one.

2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.

3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.



So, good fold, bad fold? close?

im expecting 0 replies as my threads never get any love, not sure why..

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

this is a very easy push

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

You say there is 11 left. That would imply that your table only has five or six people. I might be able to find a fold at a full table, but there is no way I could find a fold short handed.

If this player is tight you can assign a range of 88-AA, KQs, AK-T. You are well ahead of even that very tight range. If your plan is to look for better opportunities I am not sure you will find many better than this to take a commmanding lead.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

He has 10 bbs. He is essentially in all in or fold mode, and his half his stack raise, is essentially the same thing as pushing. If someone pushes for 10 bbs there, you dont actually fold AKs do you? The fact that he didn't just push is meaningless I think.

edit: yeah, the fact that the play is shorthanded makes this push even easier, and you are way ahead of his range.

You're probably around 60% against his range, plus with your stack size, its a no brainer. Push.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I might be able to find a fold at a full table, but there is no way I could find a fold short handed.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. Push and even if you lose you still have 10BB. Then you can worry about moving up the scale by folding. If you win then you're at the FT with 30BB and can start taking advantage of the shorties.

What are the other stacks like at the two tables?

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I think its and easy push as well.

At worst you face AA or KK. Also possible up against a PP 22-QQ. Also may be Axs - AKx or even KQx etc.

With blinds that big you see raises with any broadway, any Ax and any PP. I think you are ahead more often than not.

He isn't going anywhere but I think you are ahead more than you are behind.

The 1/2 stack raise is a little strange but I don't think you can automatically put them on AA or KK. Really, those are the only 2 hands I don't want to see. The rest I am either ahead or a coin flip.

If you miss you still have 10BB and options. If you hit you are in good shape moving to the FT.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

yea i think this is a push.... you'll still be in alright shape if you lose,a nd if you win you'll be in amazing shape. So i thin the risk/reward here is worth it.


If he had considerably more, like you two were running the table and were 1-2 in the tournamnet, i'd probably fold beecacuse you can get the rest of the chips by abusing the bubble.. but since you have him covered by a good amounnt, it's worth it i think

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

And while I can't think he's going to fold after putting 1/2 his stack in, people do weird things on the bubble.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not married to AK and can fold it in some cases but here I think a fold is not the way to go.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I don't think a fold here is terrible if you think you can outplay the rest of the field. I would probably put him all in but a fold is not terrible in this situation becaues of the specifics of the situation.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only way I fold this would be if I suspect the 1/2 stack raise was some strange slow play from AA. SS do strange things with AA or KK.

I personally have no trouble putting AKs all in in almost any spot. Some other players hate AK and would rather push with dueces.

Not silly but I think pushing is more +EV than folding.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I think a fold is kinda terrible.

Edit to say main reason is the top heavy nature of tourney payouts.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

short handed with a premium hand against a shorter stack, especially from the SB blind, I push here 10 times our of 10.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is from the 10r rebuy a few nights ago, 1st place is a nice 14K.

this hand happened with 11 people left, with 15-10 getting $500. 9th gets about 1k (quite a huge jump)

I have 1.2 million with blinds at 30k/60k, they will go up to 40k/80k in 7 mins. One interesting thing about this mtt is that the blinds will never go above 60k/120k And there are double limits meaning they will be 40k/80k for 30 mins. I've had no trouble accumulating thus far and have rarely been in coinflip situation. avg stack at this point was 750k.

I pick up AKs in the SB, a tighty UTG player with a little over 600k raises half his stack, i know hes not going anywhere if i raise.


Reasons why I can push

1) Premium hand, I need chips, Possible I have him dominated, Im playing to win, AKs is soo pretty (joking)

Reasons to fold.

1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one.

2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.

3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.



So, good fold, bad fold? close?

im expecting 0 replies as my threads never get any love, not sure why..

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the push, I don't think you can pass this up, for the reasons you said. If you lose, you still have 10 bbs, which isn't terrible. You're playing for first, not to limp into farther money. If you win here, you're 1 closer to the money and it makes you a monster at the final table.

The only thing that is slightly suspicous is that the guy is raising half his stack. In earlier parts of tourneys, this is the kind of things people do with hands that have you beat, trying to induce action (a push over), to make themselves look like they're stupid ie "what kind of idiot raises half his stack, he should have pushed, he's an idiot, i probably have him beat".

I think your hand is good, enough of the time to make this a good push.

Oh yeah, and its soooooted.


edit: Something I just thought of. I don't have a ton of experiance at this level, but what do people think of a stop and go (call, followed by an instapush on the flop). OP says we have 0 fold equity PF, and since I think pretty much everyone here agrees we're pushing PF, why not try to increase fold equity? Either way we're seeing 5 cards, but an SnG here might fold a worse hand that ends up sucking out on the turn/river. I dunno, just something I thought of.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

See one of my "beliefs" in MTT play is once I get a stack that is above average for the final table I slow down and avoid coinflips like this. (60/40 is a coinflip)

Earlier this month with the 5r I did this exact same thing, once i had about 500k in chips I slowed down, folded AK a few times. Went on to win the tournament by outplaying everyone, final table play by most players just isnt very good. Im very confident and patient in my ring play once Im not in push/fold territory.

I've only made like 6 final tables, I guess I'll learn this is wrong eventually, if it is. It worked for me..

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

Your reasons to fold suck.

[ QUOTE ]
1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one

[/ QUOTE ]

20BB now can be 30BB now.

[ QUOTE ]
2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.


[/ QUOTE ]

11th to 9th = $500
9th to 1st = $13,000

[ QUOTE ]
3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

10BB is enough to win the whole damn tournament. I don't know what you mean by "plenty of time to accumulate chips, cause 20BB isn't deep at all if that's what you're implying, you're going to have to show some hands down and win some big pots to win.

[ QUOTE ]
4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you have 20BB. These stacks aren't even remotely deep. You have no time to skillfully extract chips from spots who you think are "weak." When you find good hands, get 'em in there.

If you're actually playing to win you'll realize how silly all of your reasons to fold are. If he has queens and you lose, meh, it sucks but it happens.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I disagree with you augie. Last two times I played the 40k guaranteed I final tabled. First one I busted 7th with AK when I shoulded folded to a reraise but had odds to call. If I folded I had a stack bigger than half hte table and still wouldve outplayed them. The second one I folded AK in a similar situation and went on to win. In the final table people play so tight weak that any skillful player will be able to accumulate chips even in a 20bb situation. Again raising or folding neither is right or wrong just depends on the situation.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
See one of my "beliefs" in MTT play is once I get a stack that is above average for the final table I slow down and avoid coinflips like this. (60/40 is a coinflip)


[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 is a coinflip? Since when? You tellin me I have a 40% chance of flipping heads?

[ QUOTE ]
Earlier this month with the 5r I did this exact same thing, once i had about 500k in chips I slowed down, folded AK a few times. Went on to win the tournament by outplaying everyone, final table play by most players just isnt very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're folding hands that are potentially crushing your opponent pf, you're not outplaying anyone. You are the one being outplayed.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I busted

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I shoulded folded to a reraise

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
had odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. You are kidding right? So what you're saying is, you disagree with me because you played correctly and got a bad result? How is it a bad call if you're getting the correct odds? Oh right, the results. Yesterday I moved all in with 23o and the flop came 233. Good play, wasn't it?

[ QUOTE ]
In the final table people play so tight weak that any skillful player will be able to accumulate chips even in a 20bb situation

[/ QUOTE ]

Making generalizations like that can be dangerous. Not to mention you're wrong.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
See one of my "beliefs" in MTT play is once I get a stack that is above average for the final table I slow down and avoid coinflips like this. (60/40 is a coinflip)

Earlier this month with the 5r I did this exact same thing, once i had about 500k in chips I slowed down, folded AK a few times. Went on to win the tournament by outplaying everyone, final table play by most players just isnt very good. Im very confident and patient in my ring play once Im not in push/fold territory.

I've only made like 6 final tables, I guess I'll learn this is wrong eventually, if it is. It worked for me..

[/ QUOTE ]you reaslly cant outplay ur oppenents when the blinds get this big. terrible laydown, you shouldnt be playing to move up the ladder and to make the final table. play 2 win

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

Also, you are not nearly sure you're in a coinflip...

60/40 is a estimate that is pretty nice to villain here..
---

Again if he were = with you chip stack wise, and you two were running away with it.. then i'd fold and just abuse people at the FT.. you do have a point you can outplay people on the bubble and at the final table, and you dont need to race when it can knock you out, but this won't knock you out and willl make you chipleader... so.. it's a call.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I think this thread would be a lot more interesting if hero had AT.

Edit: For those who say you can outplay people later, I agree. But a big part of outplaying them is getting your money in with the best of it, which includes getting AK allin HU at a 6 handed table. Therefore anybody who is saying wait to outplay your opponents won't actually outplay their opponents later in the tournament.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i like this actually... so pretend my responses had all said this.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i like this actually... so pretend my responses had all said this.

[/ QUOTE ]why do you want more FE when you prolly have best hand, no need to get fancy, easy push

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate a stop and go here, you think your opponent will feel pot commited with KQ on a T86 flop but not feel committed with 88 on a QT7 flop?

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

Well yea i guess that's true. But increasing your FE still sounds good, Smaller variance at this stage in a tournament can onl help.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate a stop and go here, you think your opponent will feel pot commited with KQ on a T86 flop but not feel committed with 88 on a QT7 flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


That's not what Stop-n-go is... they fold the KQ on that board, and they fold the 88 too... it's positives is they fold middle pairs that whiff.. negatives is they fold hands you ahve dominated that miss too (like KQ)... a stop and go might not be as +cEV here.. but i think because it has a lower variance (higher rate of winning the pot) that it will actually have a higher +EV here.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

people overuse the stop n go

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

Can you elaborate?

Tell me what's wrong with my reasoning... I really think this would be a time to take a slightly lower +cEV move, for one that lowers your variance, thus increasing +EV.

If i'm wrong, so be it, but what you said doesn't help me, or anyone.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and yes. of course it is.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

You're still in good shape if you lose the hand, and considering the payout schedule, chipEV is very close to $EV here still. I'm not looking to reduce variance when pushing gives me a better chipEV play.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

Assuming the same oppoents, would you be looking to reduce your variance in a $1 tournament, or take the higher +EV play?

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

My first instinct was to push (if you read my first post) so most likely if i were in this situation i would have pushed,

I think lowering variance here w/ that stack is a good idea.. though you have a point that he'd be alright if he lost this hand. I think my point would be more valid if villain had hero covered, or was closer.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

No, I just think people look to the stop n go too much, I usually use it when I am shorter stacked.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

I realy don't get this "fold and outplay them later" attitude. If you give up edges like this you aren't outplaying anyone. I'd love to have people outplay me by laying down AKs to my stealraises.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate a stop and go here, you think your opponent will feel pot commited with KQ on a T86 flop but not feel committed with 88 on a QT7 flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


That's not what Stop-n-go is... they fold the KQ on that board, and they fold the 88 too... it's positives is they fold middle pairs that whiff.. negatives is they fold hands you ahve dominated that miss too (like KQ)... a stop and go might not be as +cEV here.. but i think because it has a lower variance (higher rate of winning the pot) that it will actually have a higher +EV here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% [Nothing like pulling myself up by my own bootstraps]. This is a somewhat unique circumstances[with the relative stack sizes, the position and depth of the tournament] where I would seriously consider taking a slight -cEV in exchange for lower variance. In any event, a high percentage of the time the hand plays out exactly the same way it would have had you pushed.

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
people overuse the stop n go

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a terrible spot for the stop 'n go

I'm not a big fan of it in the first place, but with ak you want to see all five cards, not:

1. push on an a or k flop where you're way ahead and he won't call you
2. push on a non-a or k flop where he will call with a mid-pair and you're way behind

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

fnurt's stop-and-go rule: A stop-and-go is only profitable if you have some chance he will lay down a hand that is beating you on the flop. Good luck satisfying that condition here.

If you have AK, he has AQ, and you only win half his stack when you could have had his whole stack by, at worst, giving him three outs twice, that is a mathematical disaster. So there is definitely a downside. The question is, in this situation, can you find me an upside?

It is good to reduce your variance, but people tend to overestimate the extent to which a stop-and-go reduces their variance, and underestimate the value of the extra chips they gain by just pushing preflop.