Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Scotty kinda played like a goon near the end. His play with 98 was just plain retarded. The other guy's committed to call with almost any hand, and since he's not particularly crazy Scotty's gotta know that when he does get called he's gonna be an underdog.

And what the hell is up with K8 of clubs? Damn...

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Kc 8c = Amazing

What was scotty doing with 9s 8s?? What an amateur move.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Uh, what does any of that have to do with him tossing in about Shana swallowing?

The last time he was interviewed by her that I recall, they showed his wife in the audience, then him telling Shana that she distracted him (i.e. he was putting the moves on her)

This time around she seemed a bit uncomfortable around him during the exit interview and he tossed in his comment about swallowing. Obviously he's wicked into her and/or he's being put up to it by some other people in the poker world (perhaps there's a bet going that he'll toss out comments like that?)

Anyway, it was hilarious, and someone needs to shuffle the deck 7 times to ensure randomness. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this for a while, and it wasn't a minor mistake. It was COLOSSAL. Consider the following...

For those that didn't watch, here's the backdrop... There are four players at the table, and Scotty is playing fairly wild. Two hands ago, Scotty (holding ATo) raised Daniel's turn bet (holding KQo) and then Scotty folded after being re-raised all in. The board read 7Q5[9], with a second spade coming on the turn. The flop had gone check-check. This resulted in a loss of about 45% of Scotty's stack.

The next hand, Scotty picked up QJo and moved in for 400K with only Daniel left to act after him (Daniel holding approx 2M or more). Daniel squeezed Kc8c and correctly called, making himself a 58/42 favorite. This was the start of a trend... Anyhow, the flop came JTT, the turn an offsuit 9, and no help for Daniel meaning Scotty doubled up and finished the hand with just about 1M in chips.

The very next hand (and not just the very next TV hand, according to the broadcast), John Stolzmann, a 23 year old college student from Wisconsin who has been pushed off of hands before by Scotty, picked up Kc8c on the button and makes it 200K to go, with blinds at 25K/50K. His stack before the bet was approximately 575K. Here's where the fure really starts to fly.

Scotty, in the BB I believe, wakes up with 9s8s and moves all in pretty rapidly. With the 25K SB dead in the pot, and approx 10K in antes also dead in there, John is getting about 800:370 to call, or 2.16:1.

John starts to think this is a pretty attractive price on a call. He doesn't need to think he has the best hand to make it. He's the shortest stack of the four remaining players. He's got 4th place money locked up and would have only 7BB left if he folded. Did I mention he was getting 2.16:1 on a call?

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here? We've seen Scotty push with QJo recently, and have to assume that AA-66 is also in his range. That leaves the question of what other non-pairs are likely to be in the mix. Frankly, four handed I think AK-A4 suited and not, KQ-K7 both ways, QJ-Q9o plus Q8s, JT-J7 both ways, T9-T7s, 98s and 97s, and probably a few of the suited one and two gappers down to 76/75. This is a HUGE range, with many of the hands being dogs to John's K8.

A few examples: John's hand is 34.5% vs K9o, 43.5% vs A7o, 41% vs A5s, 46% vs red 7's, 38.5% vs Ac 6c, and 32% vs 9h9s. This last statistic is very, very telling, because it holds all the way up to QQ -- even if one of the queens is a club. Scotty would need to have a pair bigger than Queens, a dominating suited King, AK, or... well or nothing, because that's it. That's all I can think of that's better than 68.35% vs K8s. Knowing this, is there any way at all John cannot call? I doubt it.

Anyone out there with PokerStove able to run a sim with John's hand vs the range I identified above for Scotty? I'm guessing John had a 4 to 7% overlay from the pot -- definitely enough to gambool.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here?

[/ QUOTE ]


Too bad Scotty and John didn't have pieces of each other or else this really would be more amusing.

Paul Phillips' Chart Ahoy!

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

nice analysis.

another point is that when they ran through the prize-money at the end it looked like 3rd and 4th place money were pretty close anyway. it went kind of fast and i don't feel like looking it up but i think it was something like:

4th - 315k
3rd - 390k
2nd - 750k
1st - 1.51 mil


if this is right then there's no point in just trying to hang on hoping someone else busts-out which i believe could have been the only other legitimate excuse for a short-stack to fold here with those kind of pot-odds.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here?

[/ QUOTE ]


Too bad Scotty and John didn't have pieces of each other or else this really would be more amusing.

Paul Phillips' Chart Ahoy!

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I read Paul's analysis last week... interesting stuff but this really is a very different situation with basically no chance of the two players having a piece of each other. Love the 2+2 mag articles, Barron!!

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
Love the 2+2 mag articles, Barron!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad you enjoy them. "On the Edge" parts 4-9 are in place for the June-November 2+2 mags. Hope you likewise enjoy them.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
nice analysis.

another point is that when they ran through the prize-money at the end it looked like 3rd and 4th place money were pretty close anyway. it went kind of fast and i don't feel like looking it up but i think it was something like:

4th - 315k
3rd - 390k
2nd - 750k
1st - 1.51 mil


if this is right then there's no point in just trying to hang on hoping someone else busts-out which i believe could have been the only other legitimate excuse for a short-stack to fold here with those kind of pot-odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Bob.

Even allowing for your point about gambling to have a shot at top money, Scotty had to know a few other things: John was mathematically forced to call with a wide range of hands (e.g. no folding equity), his own (Scotty's) hand plays very poorly hot and cold those times he is called, and maybe more importantly then those two, there would very likely be a chance down the road to get his money in vs John (or another opponent) with better odds. It's the thing where Sklansky harps on skipping a merely good bet today to have the chance to make a much better wager tomorrow. Scotty HAD to know this was likely the case, but he steamed and blew his shot at moving up significantly in prize money when he moved in with 98 s00ted.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

i also considered the possibility that maybe scotty just read the kid as being a bit of a doofus who wouldn't be able to figure it out.

this is especially important if the kid has shown a tendency to be pushed around (which I think we saw part of perhaps).

and scotty's attempt to steal it might have merit if he thought the kid was playing extremely tight and if thought he was trying to hang on for bigger 3rd place money. if the difference from 4th to 3rd was 300k to 550k or something then maybe this would make a little more sense....or not be quite as terrible at least.


but as it was...
- there wasn't a big difference in prize-money
- the kid had probably already established that he wasn't THAT much of a doofus
- it is more likely that scotty was just merilly steaming away and wasn't analyzing too intelligently

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

I nominate Scotty for all time WPT steamer.....

Maybe the combination of the TV cameras/lights, Shana, and the beer scrambles his brains a bit.

Frank

Negreanu Question
 

Im watching on mute (the tv feed is effed up for some reason). Anyway, they had a piece on Negreanu where they show him getting in an argument at the table on one of the early days. What was that all about?

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

just watched it. ROTFLMAO! scotty is da man!

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

[/ QUOTE ]

i just watched it and wow, that was both scary and funny at the same time.

it was just so fuggin random, he just says "you've gotta swallow", without any context what so ever. is it actually possible that scotty was telling shanie that she has to swallow(jizz)? or was he saying like it was a tough day and you have got to swallow it as in just take it in stride?

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

[/ QUOTE ]

i just watched it and wow, that was both scary and funny at the same time.

it was just so fuggin random, he just says "you've gotta swallow", without any context what so ever. is it actually possible that scotty was telling shanie that she has to swallow(jizz)? or was he saying like it was a tough day and you have got to swallow it as in just take it in stride?

[/ QUOTE ]

Scotty may have the hots for Shana and may drink too much at the table but it's pretty obvious that he wasn't telling Shana to swallow anything ... he was talking about "swallowing one's medicine" after a rough time at the table. there WAS context - just listen to his opening comments in the interview.

although the other interpretation IS pretty f'n funny.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Only WPT thread here so I'll do a semi-hijack.

Why the hell does Grinder need to cover up his hat?

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

logos are advertisments. players aren't allowed to advertise on the WPT.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this for a while, and it wasn't a minor mistake. It was COLOSSAL. Consider the following...

For those that didn't watch, here's the backdrop... There are four players at the table, and Scotty is playing fairly wild. Two hands ago, Scotty (holding ATo) raised Daniel's turn bet (holding KQo) and then Scotty folded after being re-raised all in. The board read 7Q5[9], with a second spade coming on the turn. The flop had gone check-check. This resulted in a loss of about 45% of Scotty's stack.

The next hand, Scotty picked up QJo and moved in for 400K with only Daniel left to act after him (Daniel holding approx 2M or more). Daniel squeezed Kc8c and correctly called, making himself a 58/42 favorite. This was the start of a trend... Anyhow, the flop came JTT, the turn an offsuit 9, and no help for Daniel meaning Scotty doubled up and finished the hand with just about 1M in chips.

The very next hand (and not just the very next TV hand, according to the broadcast), John Stolzmann, a 23 year old college student from Wisconsin who has been pushed off of hands before by Scotty, picked up Kc8c on the button and makes it 200K to go, with blinds at 25K/50K. His stack before the bet was approximately 575K. Here's where the fure really starts to fly.

Scotty, in the BB I believe, wakes up with 9s8s and moves all in pretty rapidly. With the 25K SB dead in the pot, and approx 10K in antes also dead in there, John is getting about 800:370 to call, or 2.16:1.

John starts to think this is a pretty attractive price on a call. He doesn't need to think he has the best hand to make it. He's the shortest stack of the four remaining players. He's got 4th place money locked up and would have only 7BB left if he folded. Did I mention he was getting 2.16:1 on a call?

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here? We've seen Scotty push with QJo recently, and have to assume that AA-66 is also in his range. That leaves the question of what other non-pairs are likely to be in the mix. Frankly, four handed I think AK-A4 suited and not, KQ-K7 both ways, QJ-Q9o plus Q8s, JT-J7 both ways, T9-T7s, 98s and 97s, and probably a few of the suited one and two gappers down to 76/75. This is a HUGE range, with many of the hands being dogs to John's K8.

A few examples: John's hand is 34.5% vs K9o, 43.5% vs A7o, 41% vs A5s, 46% vs red 7's, 38.5% vs Ac 6c, and 32% vs 9h9s. This last statistic is very, very telling, because it holds all the way up to QQ -- even if one of the queens is a club. Scotty would need to have a pair bigger than Queens, a dominating suited King, AK, or... well or nothing, because that's it. That's all I can think of that's better than 68.35% vs K8s. Knowing this, is there any way at all John cannot call? I doubt it.

Anyone out there with PokerStove able to run a sim with John's hand vs the range I identified above for Scotty? I'm guessing John had a 4 to 7% overlay from the pot -- definitely enough to gambool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran PokerStove on your hand range with a couple of randoms thrown in. By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here, but regardless, the number for K8s is 45.7%.

I would like to make one point, though. Keep in mind that I didn't watch the broadcast, so I might be missing something (I apologize if I am). It seems that people are looking at this from the wrong perspective and are forgetting a key factor: Stolzmann ALSO has a wide range of hands there, many of which he might lay down. I don't care how tight he plays or has been playing; he opened on the button in a 4-handed final table with large blinds. That says very little. Does he open with Q9o there? Probably. Does he call the rest of his chips off? Questionable.

My point is this. If Scotty somehow knew that Stolzmann had K8s and still pushed, then yes, it's probably a bad play. Virtually any reasonable poker player would understand that they were receiving a big overlay in that spot with K8s against Scotty's range. But Scotty doesn't know Stolzmann's hand!! All he knows is that John opened on the button 4-handed and has shown a tendency to lay down when faced with heat (I pulled those assumptions from the post above. Again, I didn't see the show). Maybe Stolzmann folds many of his opening hands there. If he does, it's a huge coup for Scotty. And if he gets called, is it really that bad? As it was, he ran in to a tough hand and was still only a 2-1 dog.


Here's something else to think about. Give Stolzmann this range of opening hands: any pair, any ace, KQo-K8o, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q8s, QJo-Q9o, JTs, JTo, J9s, J9o, 9Ts, 9To. That's a very generous range for him. Really, we should probably dump the 9To/J9o stuff and add in a few more Kx's, but we'll stick with this because the range actually fares better against 89s. If you run PokerStove, you'll see that Scotty's hand has 39.1% equity. Again, against one of the worst reasonable ranges for Scotty's hand.

Now let's assume that Stolzmann doesn't just raise, he pushes. Stolz started with 575k. What kind of price is Scotty getting? 85k in dead money (25k/50k blinds and 10k in antes). He has already posted his blind, so it's 525k to call with 660k in the pot. He gets 1.26-1 on his call and needs 44.3% equity to make a breakeven call.

So with fold equity of ZERO, Scotty is making an equity mistake of 5% or less. Guess what happens when Stolzmann will fold 5% of his opening hands? Or 10%? Or 25%? Remember that every time Stolzmann folds, Scotty picks up a 'free' 335k.

With large blinds, you need to be very careful how you judge these all-in situations. I'm not saying that Scotty made a well-reasoned, mathematically logical move. For all I know, his fold equity could have been exactly zero. But to dismiss his move as bad poker because he'll usually get called is nonsense.

The Bear

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
logos are advertisments. players aren't allowed to advertise on the WPT.

[/ QUOTE ]

What logo?

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

i would assume that whatever was covered on his hat was a logo.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

I've always wondered what kind of logos are banned.

I'm a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan. If I choose to wear a Steelers or Pirates cap at a WPT final table, would they make me tape over it? What are the restrictions?

Hopefully someone who's been on TV can help me out with this on the off-chance I actually get there myself.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

WPT owns the rights to their programming, so they likely don't allow ads for online cardroom and the like.

Also, most anyrandominternetcardroom.com isn't allowed by FCC, I believe. Therefore, most sites have a free-play .net site for playmoney.

After that horrible Moneymaker-Raymer Pokerstars commercial, it was nice to see the slicked up ad that Raymer did on Sunday's HU championship on NBC.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would assume that whatever was covered on his hat was a logo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it's possible, but he usually wears his trademark 'The Grinder I'm a Machine' hat. And that looked like one of them.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Scotty meant that you have to swallow whatever the results are. Not for Shana Hiatt to swallow. Although the way he said it, it was hilarious.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

I think Scotty was somewhere between buzzed and blitzed by the time Shana interviewed him so his drunken rambling came out sounding obscene when he really was trying to express his disappointment. My own semi-hijack: Does anyone else think Chiau cost himself the win by overplaying his AJs when the A flopped? I think if he checks to Stolzman there the chips go in.

Re: Negreanu Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, they had a piece on Negreanu where they show him getting in an argument at the table on one of the early days. What was that all about?

[/ QUOTE ]

Some guy was telling Daniel he had to respect him because he was worth 100 million or something. Daniel started telling him how he respected everyone the same. From the janitor to that guy. Then they show Negreanu busting the guy.

Anyone else notice Gavin in the stands getting a couple of camera shots in?

Re: Negreanu Question
 

Yeah, some jackass who was full of himself because he claims to have 100 million dollars was giving Daniel a hard time, I guess.

And yes, I know the context of Scottie's comment, but I still think he was aware of the "other" context and made sure to put it out like that. Combination of drinking, having a fugly wife and being in the presence of Shana will do that to ya.

Now I want a t-shirt with the two of them on it and "You've Gotta Swallow" as the logo. I bet I'd sell a million of those shirts, pure genius!

Re: Negreanu Question
 

That's incorrect:

Scottie's wife is very very very far from fugly.

She is very pretty and HUGE tracks of land! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
(I've seen her in person)

I agree that he needs to remove the sauce from his game.

>TW<

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

All logos are banned on the WPT, several episodes appear with BLACK taped logos.

The show is far too popular, advertising costs $, I am wondering how much is paid for the ever changing OFFICIAL BEER.

One show in Aruba had an ad on the TABLE covered, although I think they slipped up at least once.

.net poker site with disclaimers: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE are so funny, it's as bad as NOT allowing alcohol to be actually consumed in a commercial, god forbid the kiddies figure out what you do with BEER!

Come play free at .net and you can play with 2 poker champions! NOT!

>TW<

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

I love when DN made fun of Giang and was rubbing his chest

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

Well she did hold that microphone with two hands when she interviewed him.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
I love when DN made fun of Giang and was rubbing his chest

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I saw him doing that. Chau Giang is THA' MAN! w00t! (looks at own avatar)

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well she did hold that microphone with two hands when she interviewed him.

[/ QUOTE ] She's double-fisting it?

Re: Negreanu Question
 

Give me a break. I thought you were joking. Do you really think he meant it in any way the way you are twisiting it. C,mon, he's on tv.

Re: Negreanu Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give me a break. I thought you were joking. Do you really think he meant it in any way the way you are twisiting it. C,mon, he's on tv.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do believe he meant it in both ways. We've seen Matasow on TV and he's mentioned the size of Raymers gonads, right? Why is it so far fetched for Scotty to tell Shana she's gotta swallow?

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
I ran PokerStove on your hand range with a couple of randoms thrown in. By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here, but regardless, the number for K8s is 45.7%.

I would like to make one point, though. Keep in mind that I didn't watch the broadcast, so I might be missing something (I apologize if I am). It seems that people are looking at this from the wrong perspective and are forgetting a key factor: Stolzmann ALSO has a wide range of hands there, many of which he might lay down. I don't care how tight he plays or has been playing; he opened on the button in a 4-handed final table with large blinds. That says very little. Does he open with Q9o there? Probably. Does he call the rest of his chips off? Questionable.

My point is this. If Scotty somehow knew that Stolzmann had K8s and still pushed, then yes, it's probably a bad play. Virtually any reasonable poker player would understand that they were receiving a big overlay in that spot with K8s against Scotty's range. But Scotty doesn't know Stolzmann's hand!! All he knows is that John opened on the button 4-handed and has shown a tendency to lay down when faced with heat (I pulled those assumptions from the post above. Again, I didn't see the show). Maybe Stolzmann folds many of his opening hands there. If he does, it's a huge coup for Scotty. And if he gets called, is it really that bad? As it was, he ran in to a tough hand and was still only a 2-1 dog.


Here's something else to think about. Give Stolzmann this range of opening hands: any pair, any ace, KQo-K8o, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q8s, QJo-Q9o, JTs, JTo, J9s, J9o, 9Ts, 9To. That's a very generous range for him. Really, we should probably dump the 9To/J9o stuff and add in a few more Kx's, but we'll stick with this because the range actually fares better against 89s. If you run PokerStove, you'll see that Scotty's hand has 39.1% equity. Again, against one of the worst reasonable ranges for Scotty's hand.

Now let's assume that Stolzmann doesn't just raise, he pushes. Stolz started with 575k. What kind of price is Scotty getting? 85k in dead money (25k/50k blinds and 10k in antes). He has already posted his blind, so it's 525k to call with 660k in the pot. He gets 1.26-1 on his call and needs 44.3% equity to make a breakeven call.

So with fold equity of ZERO, Scotty is making an equity mistake of 5% or less. Guess what happens when Stolzmann will fold 5% of his opening hands? Or 10%? Or 25%? Remember that every time Stolzmann folds, Scotty picks up a 'free' 335k.

With large blinds, you need to be very careful how you judge these all-in situations. I'm not saying that Scotty made a well-reasoned, mathematically logical move. For all I know, his fold equity could have been exactly zero. But to dismiss his move as bad poker because he'll usually get called is nonsense.

The Bear

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Best post I have read so far.

Re: Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You\'ve Gotta Swallow
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here...

[/ QUOTE ]

"Raising my blind... Are you raising my blind everytime baby? Alright, ALL IN"

I'd say this verbal exchange combined with the quick move and the obvious looseness the prior few hands would significantly WIDEN the range...

Re: Negreanu Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now I want a t-shirt with the two of them on it and "You've Gotta Swallow Baby" as the logo. I bet I'd sell a million of those shirts, pure genius!

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed your post.