Two Plus Two Older Archives - Sometimes, I know when to fold 'em....

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Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

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I'm guessing you mucked because MP's smooth call of your raise is a big hand and you can be pretty sure he is coming over the top of the short stack's all-in.

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This is almost perfect. MP's call screams set to me (maybe two pair, but probably a set) and he's going to get it all-in over the top on the flop or maybe on a non-club turn-- I'm screwed either way.

MP3's smooth call by itself doesn't bother me and here's why: If button folds, I'm playing a fairly large pot against another player with a decent sized stack who's basically turned his cards face up. Now I can bluff-push any club turn and probably win (which I can't do if button is all-in) or push any turn that makes my straight and get paid off.

However, with both button and MP in the hand, I can no longer bluff at clubs (because I'm just not good enough to bluff somebody who's all-in out of the pot) and I can only win with my straight. So instead of 14 outs for the turn (have to discount the club that pairs the board as bluffing that card would be retarded), I have only 8 and no possibility of picking up the pot with a bluff.

Results in white: Button had AKo, MP had 55, the turn was a club and the river paired the board-- my straight wouldn't have gotten there.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

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Wait.. your logic is that if he pushes you can call. Then he pushes, you fold. I'm confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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This is because MP is still around. If he had folded to my check/raise and I could guarantee seeing the turn and river both for the price of button's remaining stack, I can call.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

I don't like the semi-bluff here one bit. If button has anything , which he does, then you gonna get called or raised. Buttons push smells like a flush draw to me, probably Ax clubs. Also you only have six good outs here as a club might make villian a flush. I'd fold after buttons 8 dollar raise.
Otherwise the check and the muck make a lot of sense in themselves. You thinking was:
I'll check here hoping to get a free card as I don't have much of a draw.
Dam! button has bet, oh well never mind, I've got some sort of a draw I'll just make a big raise and hope to take it down now.
Double dam and drat! He's all in, any futher betting is clearly foolish unless he's holding something like 23o, time to muck in a turbo style.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

Yeah I noticed that after I posted.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

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You thinking was:
I'll check here hoping to get a free card as I don't have much of a draw.
Dam! button has bet, oh well never mind, I've got some sort of a draw I'll just make a big raise and hope to take it down now.
Double dam and drat! He's all in, any futher betting is clearly foolish unless he's holding something like 23o, time to muck in a turbo style.

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You are mistaken.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

Ghaz, I'm not saying that I agree with this play I just want to outline what I think you were thinking:

Assumptions:
A1) Reasonable players

Preflop:

I guess you are calling because of the implied odds...fine making an Adult Swim Move (would have liked it to be at least suited)

 Flop: A 8 5 (two clubs) 

Ghaz thinks:

Not bad of a flop with my cards. Now, If I check raise here. I think I can get the Button to fold 99 - KK, but if he calls then I know that he has the A. I now am drawing to 15 outs [7 fake (flush) and 8 real (str8)]. This will give me an oppotunity to bluff him again because I get to act first. If the button pushes, I can call his last $32 with a pot of $95 because it is giving me ~3:1 odds and I am getting 2.2:1 to hit my str8 by the river. I'll check...

 MP checks, (Ghaz: good he doesn't have anything)
 Button bets 8 (Ghaz: Good, lets see if my trap works)
 Ghaz raise to $25 
 MP smooth-calls

Ghaz: Dang! MP must have a good hand here that he is not going to come off of. What is the most reasonable? A Set because pretty no matter what I will do the Button will have put enough money in to make drawing to the boat good if I hit my 'fake' flush on the turn. MP must have AA/88/55...I'm done with this...

 Button pushes, Ghaz mucks, and MP calls

I think this was a fair play, but I don't know if you stack was deep enough to make this play, but that is just me. The only thing I would have done is mucked it preflop unless it was suited.

-Gryph

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

hey ghazban,

i would've played pretty much every street differently. first, i'd fold pre-flop. i don't think you give up much by calling, but i'm a wimp about calling raises OOP. if it was sooted, i'd call.

i'd check-call the flop. the button has marked himself as likely having Ax by raising pre-flop, so i don't want to bet and let him raise me out of the pot. my plan would be to check it to him and hope he makes a too-small bet, b/c if he does in fact have Ax i think he's too short to get away from it if the straight gets there. once he makes a small bet, i think it's a call. if MP comes along (btw, was he utg+1 or CO?), that's fine - you've got 6 outs to the nuts right now.

if you think that the button might get away from a hand like AJ to a c/r, then i like the play a lot better. but absent a read, i don't think you're going to fold out AJ. also, if there's some chance button will min-raise some KJ-type garbage, then that argues for a c/r also. but against unknown competition, i like a check/call.

after the button pushes, i agree it's a turbo-muck. btw, even if the button were not all-in, i would not be thrilled about the plan of pushing a club. MP's hand could easily be A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and if he's really fishy, it could also be a smaller club draw.

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

[ QUOTE ]
Ghaz, I'm not saying that I agree with this play I just want to outline what I think you were thinking:

Assumptions:
A1) Reasonable players

Preflop:

I guess you are calling because of the implied odds...fine making an Adult Swim Move (would have liked it to be at least suited)

[/ QUOTE ]

For a minimum raise, I'm calling any two out of the BB. The information I've gained is worth more than the 1xBB I have to pay for it. Others don't agree with me on this and that's fine, too, but that's my stand on calling minraises out of the BB.

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 Flop: A 8 5 (two clubs) 

Ghaz thinks:

Not bad of a flop with my cards. Now, If I check raise here. I think I can get the Button to fold 99 - KK, but if he calls then I know that he has the A. I now am drawing to 15 outs [7 fake (flush) and 8 real (str8)]. This will give me an oppotunity to bluff him again because I get to act first. If the button pushes, I can call his last $32 with a pot of $95 because it is giving me ~3:1 odds and I am getting 2.2:1 to hit my str8 by the river. I'll check...

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Not quite. I can't bluff clubs against the shortstacked button; I can only bluff clubs against the deeper MP. If I lead and am called in two places, I will be very unhappy if the turn doesn't make my straight without completing the flush, too. However, a check/raise will knock MP off all but the strongest hands and will force button to fold anything but an ace. If MP calls the check-raise and button folds, I know exactly where MP is at and can use any club as a bluff out for a medium pot and can win a big pot if I hit my straight. If MP folds and button pushes, I have odds to call my OESD vs. his short stack and I will do so.

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 MP checks, (Ghaz: good he doesn't have anything)
 Button bets 8 (Ghaz: Good, lets see if my trap works)
 Ghaz raise to $25 
 MP smooth-calls

Ghaz: Dang! MP must have a good hand here that he is not going to come off of. What is the most reasonable? A Set because pretty no matter what I will do the Button will have put enough money in to make drawing to the boat good if I hit my 'fake' flush on the turn. MP must have AA/88/55...I'm done with this...

 Button pushes, Ghaz mucks, and MP calls

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Now I got the worst possible situation-- instead of just playing deeper with MP3 or shortstack all-in with button, both people are in the hand. Now I can no longer bluff (because button can't fold now that he's all-in) and I'm no longer getting a (relatively) cheap price to see TWO more cards from button (because MP can bet again on the flop or on the turn, which he certainly will do with a hand good enough to smooth call a checkraise). Therefore, my myriad of ways of winning has been reduced to only winning if I can hit my straight (without MP boating up no less) and I'll have to pay a lot of money.... time to fold.

Make sense?

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

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For a minimum raise, I'm calling any two out of the BB. The information I've gained is worth more than the 1xBB I have to pay for it. Others don't agree with me on this and that's fine, too, but that's my stand on calling minraises out of the BB.

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Im with you on this one. I think minraises should basically be regarded as limps, and treat my hand accordingly. I like the way you have explained why your played your hand the way you did. Very informative.

Chris

Re: Sometimes, I know when to fold \'em....

Yeah, now I get it...

I like it now that you have explained it. But, all of this hinges fact that if you got the button to fold after the MP smooth-calls that he will drop it if the 'fake' flush comes. Is that a reasonable assumption?

And if your str8 or 'fake' flush doesn't come you are going to check fold it because if the MP is smart help push a non-str8 and non-flush completeing turn.

So would you have check-folded it if Button had called after the MP had smooth-called and a 'flush' card came on the turn?

-Gryph