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-   -   11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=342850)

rockythecat99 09-23-2005 02:56 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
I don't think a fold here is terrible if you think you can outplay the rest of the field. I would probably put him all in but a fold is not terrible in this situation becaues of the specifics of the situation.

Hotrod0823 09-23-2005 02:59 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
[ QUOTE ]
It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only way I fold this would be if I suspect the 1/2 stack raise was some strange slow play from AA. SS do strange things with AA or KK.

I personally have no trouble putting AKs all in in almost any spot. Some other players hate AK and would rather push with dueces.

Not silly but I think pushing is more +EV than folding.

La Brujita 09-23-2005 02:59 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
I think a fold is kinda terrible.

Edit to say main reason is the top heavy nature of tourney payouts.

KneeCo 09-23-2005 02:59 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
short handed with a premium hand against a shorter stack, especially from the SB blind, I push here 10 times our of 10.

Dave D 09-23-2005 03:01 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is from the 10r rebuy a few nights ago, 1st place is a nice 14K.

this hand happened with 11 people left, with 15-10 getting $500. 9th gets about 1k (quite a huge jump)

I have 1.2 million with blinds at 30k/60k, they will go up to 40k/80k in 7 mins. One interesting thing about this mtt is that the blinds will never go above 60k/120k And there are double limits meaning they will be 40k/80k for 30 mins. I've had no trouble accumulating thus far and have rarely been in coinflip situation. avg stack at this point was 750k.

I pick up AKs in the SB, a tighty UTG player with a little over 600k raises half his stack, i know hes not going anywhere if i raise.


Reasons why I can push

1) Premium hand, I need chips, Possible I have him dominated, Im playing to win, AKs is soo pretty (joking)

Reasons to fold.

1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one.

2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.

3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.



So, good fold, bad fold? close?

im expecting 0 replies as my threads never get any love, not sure why..

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the push, I don't think you can pass this up, for the reasons you said. If you lose, you still have 10 bbs, which isn't terrible. You're playing for first, not to limp into farther money. If you win here, you're 1 closer to the money and it makes you a monster at the final table.

The only thing that is slightly suspicous is that the guy is raising half his stack. In earlier parts of tourneys, this is the kind of things people do with hands that have you beat, trying to induce action (a push over), to make themselves look like they're stupid ie "what kind of idiot raises half his stack, he should have pushed, he's an idiot, i probably have him beat".

I think your hand is good, enough of the time to make this a good push.

Oh yeah, and its soooooted.


edit: Something I just thought of. I don't have a ton of experiance at this level, but what do people think of a stop and go (call, followed by an instapush on the flop). OP says we have 0 fold equity PF, and since I think pretty much everyone here agrees we're pushing PF, why not try to increase fold equity? Either way we're seeing 5 cards, but an SnG here might fold a worse hand that ends up sucking out on the turn/river. I dunno, just something I thought of.

LethalRose 09-23-2005 03:06 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
See one of my "beliefs" in MTT play is once I get a stack that is above average for the final table I slow down and avoid coinflips like this. (60/40 is a coinflip)

Earlier this month with the 5r I did this exact same thing, once i had about 500k in chips I slowed down, folded AK a few times. Went on to win the tournament by outplaying everyone, final table play by most players just isnt very good. Im very confident and patient in my ring play once Im not in push/fold territory.

I've only made like 6 final tables, I guess I'll learn this is wrong eventually, if it is. It worked for me..

augie00 09-23-2005 03:11 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
Your reasons to fold suck.

[ QUOTE ]
1) I have 1.2 mil, I have 20BB now and I will never go below 10BB unless I lose a significant hand. This would be one

[/ QUOTE ]

20BB now can be 30BB now.

[ QUOTE ]
2)The payout structure from 11th to 9th.


[/ QUOTE ]

11th to 9th = $500
9th to 1st = $13,000

[ QUOTE ]
3) If I lose this, I will have 10BB's and have the blinds coming up soon, so i will have to make a move soon. If I fold, I'll have plenty of time to accumulate chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

10BB is enough to win the whole damn tournament. I don't know what you mean by "plenty of time to accumulate chips, cause 20BB isn't deep at all if that's what you're implying, you're going to have to show some hands down and win some big pots to win.

[ QUOTE ]
4) The other table isnt going to break up soon, and I have 75% of the chips at my table. I've been eyeing a few players who want to give me their chips b/c they're pissed @ me for some reason or another.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you have 20BB. These stacks aren't even remotely deep. You have no time to skillfully extract chips from spots who you think are "weak." When you find good hands, get 'em in there.

If you're actually playing to win you'll realize how silly all of your reasons to fold are. If he has queens and you lose, meh, it sucks but it happens.

rockythecat99 09-23-2005 03:16 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
I disagree with you augie. Last two times I played the 40k guaranteed I final tabled. First one I busted 7th with AK when I shoulded folded to a reraise but had odds to call. If I folded I had a stack bigger than half hte table and still wouldve outplayed them. The second one I folded AK in a similar situation and went on to win. In the final table people play so tight weak that any skillful player will be able to accumulate chips even in a 20bb situation. Again raising or folding neither is right or wrong just depends on the situation.

augie00 09-23-2005 03:18 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
[ QUOTE ]
See one of my "beliefs" in MTT play is once I get a stack that is above average for the final table I slow down and avoid coinflips like this. (60/40 is a coinflip)


[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 is a coinflip? Since when? You tellin me I have a 40% chance of flipping heads?

[ QUOTE ]
Earlier this month with the 5r I did this exact same thing, once i had about 500k in chips I slowed down, folded AK a few times. Went on to win the tournament by outplaying everyone, final table play by most players just isnt very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're folding hands that are potentially crushing your opponent pf, you're not outplaying anyone. You are the one being outplayed.

augie00 09-23-2005 03:31 PM

Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I busted

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I shoulded folded to a reraise

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
had odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. You are kidding right? So what you're saying is, you disagree with me because you played correctly and got a bad result? How is it a bad call if you're getting the correct odds? Oh right, the results. Yesterday I moved all in with 23o and the flop came 233. Good play, wasn't it?

[ QUOTE ]
In the final table people play so tight weak that any skillful player will be able to accumulate chips even in a 20bb situation

[/ QUOTE ]

Making generalizations like that can be dangerous. Not to mention you're wrong.


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