pocket aces river a set on a 4-straight board

[detruncate]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

After my 1st orbit, MP1 has played almost every hand; MP3 has played all 3 hands since he posted

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero ???

[Bill Smith]

I'd have to bet this for value.

[RcrdBoy]

This is an easy value bet.

[tardigrade]

I tried running the numbers just to get an estimate of where you stand. No guarantees of correctness, but this is what I've got:

If it were purely random, there would be a 28% chance of one of your opponents holding a jack at this point. Assuming only one of them will call your bet and that you'll call a single raise if check-raised I think your additional value calculates out to about 16 cents for a dollar bet. If they both will call your bet, then you're getting more like 80 cents for it. Bet it for value.

[spacemonkey57]

Swear under your breath and bet that river.

Anybody that's suggesting a river bet the river fold to a checkraise, or do you make a crying call?

[deacsoft]

Painfully crying call. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
Swear under your breath and bet that river.

Anybody that's suggesting a river bet the river fold to a checkraise, or do you make a crying call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cry call unless it goes to 3-bets ahead of you... Gotta be at least a 10% chance he's a fish raising AT or something.

[detruncate]

It's entirely possible that it's just a matter of perception, but it seems I've lost every single one of these 'value' bets over the last 3-4000 hands. Makes you start to wonder if you're seriously overplaying hands.

I decided to try checking through a few more of these today, and wouldn't you know it...

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 8.25 BB, between MP3, Hero and MP1.</font> &gt; Pot won by Hero (8.25 BB).

Results:
MP1 shows 8s 5s (one pair, eights).
MP3 shows 2c Tc (one pair, tens).
Hero shows Ac Ah (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.25 BB.

We spend so much time inuring ourselves to what would be intuitively scary situations that I think I'm doing an increasingly poor job of identifying genuinely dangerous ones. Whatever. A winning session or two in the not too distant future would do a lot put things back in perpective. Sucks when you feel like you're getting better, but have been seeing much worse results. Such is life. Lessons within lessons within lessons.

[Siingo]

How do you find out those numbers?

Very curious!
Thanks!