AKs Early in Tournament

[AtlBrvs4Life]

What does everyone think of this play? Is this too aggressive for this stage of a tournament? I figured I had plenty of outs. An ace, king, queen, or any spade.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

MP2 (t815)
MP3 (t1290)
CO (t635)
AtlBrvs4Life (t1130)
SB (t740)
BB (t540)
UTG (t1115)
UTG+1 (t730)
MP1 (t1005)

Preflop: AtlBrvs4Life is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, MP3 calls t30, CO folds, AtlBrvs4Life raises to t150, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t120.

Flop: (t405) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP3 bets t300, AtlBrvs4Life raises to t980 (All-In), MP3 calls t680.

Turn: (t2365) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2365) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

[redsamurai]

Looking at the hand, even though you are drawing, there are only 5 holdings to which you are a dog that he could be playing. If he has JJ, TT, 55 you are 34% to win. If MP3 is holding AA you are 46% to win. Finally if MP3 has JT you're 45% to win. Against all other holdings you are a slight (any pair 52-56%) to dominating (any draw) favorite. (TwoDimes for the calculations)

This leaves the questions of what hands could he limp-call pre-flop and then lead 300 into a 405 pot on this flop and whether or not he can call a raise of 680 for most of his stack with that hand. Clearly you are not looking for a call here as the best you can hope for is a coin flip and being the better player (2+2 assumption) you want to avoid coin flips. Not knowing the player my read on this player before his call is AJ, TT, or KQ as the big pairs (AA, KK, QQ, JJ) are likely have raised the limpers and you have the Ax flush draw. In low limit SnGs I've seen all sorts of hands turned over in the early rounds so who knows what the correct read should be. In the end the limp-call-lead gives me pause. Players rarely do this with nothing. I'd wait for a better opportunity even though you may be a slight +EV. You have position on this guy and if he thinks you will roll over to a flop bet he'll try it again later when you'll have a better holding.

[AtlBrvs4Life]

Results:

Final Pot: t2365

MP3 shows Qc Kh (straight, ace high).
AtlBrvs4Life shows Ks As (two pair, aces and fives).
Outcome: MP3 wins t2365.