Implied odds! 77 with A at the tabel?

[Siingo]

The tabel gave a lot of action. Should I have called the turn? And should I have dropped after the reraise instead or called there too?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero folds, SB raises, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, MP2 folds, SB caps, BB calls.

River: (16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
SB bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows 9h Ks (two pair, kings and nines).
BB shows 9d Ac (two pair, aces and nines).
Outcome: BB wins 18 BB. </font>

[Sadat X]

I am by no means an expert on odds, but it seems like 11-1 on the flop warrants a call. I dont think 8-1 on the turn is enough to call. I cant see calling being a +EV play in this situation. Well played.

[Piiop]

Odds on the flop are 10:1. However, you are also in a great spot to raise if you happen to spike a 7. Odds on the turn are 9:1. Odds of hitting a 7 are 23:1. Fold good.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Flop call is a little thin 10-1, when odds of hitting your 2 outer within the next TWO cards is 11-1, so basically if you don't hit it on the turn you're folding because you're surely not going to get enough odds to call on the turn when its something like 23-1. However, as others have correctly pointed out is your position to the bettor in this hand, so if you do spike a 7 you can raise and collect your bets.

A side note, however, is that when posting these type of "Should I have called?" cases, you should just not even post the action after you fold, because it is irrelevent to your decision. Just a little suggestion so that you don't become results orientated. I don't think you even post this hand if a 7 doesn't come on the river.

CdC

[Siingo]

At the flop my thinking was exactly like that. If I hit my 7 then I win a lot and thats why I called even if the odds was close. That is implied odds right? Is it only at the flop you use implied odds?

Ok in this exampel I guess that the implied odds never can justify a call at the turn, now when I think of it. But if we think that the potodds would have been 10:1 and my odds 11:1? Would it be right to call then, if I belive that the two persons will call 1 bet from me if I get my hand?

[Siingo]

Actually I would! It is not the hand itself whitch is my problem. It is my thinking of implied odds and this is a hand that I thought that I maybe could get to know how it work.

Thanks! Will do that next time. Could not Edit the post this time. The edit time had expierd!

[afk]

The flop seems like an easy fold to me.

Where are you guys getting this 11:1 figure from to spike a 7? That's the odds to hit by the river, right? I'm pretty sure that only factors in when you plan to actually see the river. In which case you have to factor in effective odds - or future bets you have to put in.

He's getting 10:1 on the flop. Odds to the river are 11:1. He's going to have to put in one small bet and one big bet (at the least) to see the river, that's $3. So as it stands right now he's getting 10:3 on his money - now factor in what he might win, which is harder to do with this many people in the pot. Even if our hero catches another 4BB ($8 on the turn, and we'll assume the SB calls on the flop ($9) then he's still getting 19:3 = 6.3:1 on the flop call of 11:1 by the river. If you think you can make the rest up in implied odds, by all means call. If not, this is an easy fold to me. Perhaps I've got my effective odds all backwards , but a situation like this is pretty well laid out in TOP except they use a flush draw as an example.

Though correct me if I'm horribly wrong and have made an ass out of myself! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


edit: It's in TOP, not HPFAP

[Ralph Wiggum]

You should have called. Any 2+2er could see that the 7 was coming.

[chesspain]

Siigo,

Every miracle shot you take has implied odds. But for the miracle shot to make sense, it has to be implied that the money you will earn when you hit will make up for all of the times that the miracle misses.

In your example, I think we can agree that the chances of your winning unimproved with your 77 are close to zero. In addition, since you have no draw of any kind, we can also agree that you will need to hit a 7 to win. Let's also assume that you will always fold on the turn without spiking, since you will never have the odds to see the river.

The odds of your spiking a 7 on the turn is 23:1. The pot is laying you 10:1. To make the math easy, let's assume you call this bet the next twenty-three times you are in this situation, and as probability predicts, you spike your set one time. That means that you've spent 23 SBs to win 10 SBs. This further means that you need to earn 7BB's on the final two streets in order to make this bet worthwhile. Unless you are playing with maniacs, that is a lot of money to have to earn, since you can't be assured that the player(s) with an A will go wild when you raise, or that the others will even still be putting money in on the expensive streets.

In conclusion...don't chase with obviously beaten underpairs when you miss the flop and you're only getting 10:1 to see the turn.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Aiya! I knew my post was wrong after I posted it. I even said that you needed to see both cards to make the call correct, which obviously hero doesn't in this case.

I was calculating the two card total odds, not street by street, which was really strange since I already knew this like 700 posts ago....