$200 SnG- On Bubble and you have AA, but everyone else goes all in

[AA suited]

Here's a hyperthetical situation:

say it's a $200 tourny. there are 4 players left and everyone has 2000 chips. you are BB and have AA. Everyone else goes all in. blinds are 250/500.

if you fold, you have 2nd place locked, but will become the short stack since big stack will have 6000 chips. and since blinds are 250/500, you have less than 3BB left.

1) Do you go all in with AA or fold for the sure thing (2nd place)?

2) what if you have 2300 chips, and everyone has 1900?

3) what if you have 1700 chips, and everyone else has 2100?

[B Dids]

Depends on how the payout is. If you're all even money- seems those who don't win will just split the remaining pot. Since you're a big favorite (and if everybody's pushing, they've probably got eachother's outs to beat you in their hands) I think it's an easy call in all situations.

[Prickly Pete]

Prickly Pete attempts math, be forewarned...

If you fold, you'll have 1500 out of 8000 with 2 left and the equity is (1000 x (1500/8000)) + (600 x (6500/8000)) = 675.

If you call, I came up with a win % around 55% for most scenarios. (2 lower pairs, AK or AQ and various combos. I even threw in a JTs in one instance) The equity here is (1000 x .55) + (0 x .45) = 550.

So while I can't imagine folding, it looks like the right move in this case.

The only other thought is a split pot, but that seems highly improbable in this case.

[37offsuit]

1) Fold
2) Fold
3) Fold

I'll take second place money and a 3 to 1 chip disadvantage for a shot at first.

[sprmario]

I don't think it's a 100% chance of 2nd place because they could be holding the same hands and split, but it's still high, 96%?

Anyways the very high chance at 2nd place money and a shot at 1st is better than the 50% or so shot of winning the 4 way showdown and then being a favorite for first.

My back of the envelope EV calcs gave me ~$480 for calling and ~$800 for folding, but I could be missing something in the math.

EDIT*** oops sorry did the math for a $10 SnG, numbers corrected.

[chim17]

Fold, no question in my mind.

[Prickly Pete]

Oh wait, I forgot something. If you bust (and there's no split), you'll be splitting 2nd and 3rd with 2 others. Making my last calculation: (1000 x .55) + (((600 + 400)/3) x .45) = 700

So I guess, it's a slight edge to call after all.

Of course, I don't know how the sites handles the bust outs here, never seen it happen.

[TL Price]

1) I am probably in the school that says folding is the right move here. Throw away AA. If you lose, 2nd and 3rd is a 3 way split. You are almost guaranteed 2nd by staying out, and 6000 versus 2000 is not insurmountable. One double-up and you are the Chip Leader.

2) Call. Even if you get beat, you will still be in 2nd and you have a decent chance to end it right there, if others are holding pocket pairs or AK and don't get help.

3) Fold. If you lose, you get nothing (good day sir!). I won't do the EV calculation, but even if the $200 entry is pocket change, that is a hell of a lot you are throwing away where you are maybe 50% to win 4-handed and you can sit on the sideline and collect, even if you don't ultimately stand to win 1st.

[TL Price]

How can you fold in situation 2?

You might get beat by one of the hands? But by two? A call here is almost a sure 2nd place in its own right, the only problem here is that you will be at a serious chip disadvantage if someone does draw out.

But for the chance to end it right there, and be assured a generous take if it doesn't work out...I would call here each and every time.

But to each their own, I suppose...

[adanthar]

In the last hand of some big Party MTT a couple of months ago (I think it was the $250K guaranteed), there were 3 left when the 6-7BB'd short stack went all in UTG. The small blind big stack, with about 20-25 BB as far as I remember, reraised all in. The big blind, who was in the middle with 10-15 BB, was holding aces.

IIRC, there was about 30 grand riding on whether he should call or not. He did.

<font color="white">The short stack had K9 and flopped what I want to say was a bottom pair and a gutshot. His straight came on the turn. Unfortunately for him, the big stack held AK and turned a bigger straight for the entire tournament.</font>

This has no relevance to the discussion whatsoever. I just thought I'd share.