Is there any way Hillary might be the democrats' candidate?

[poker-penguin]

I have someone who is willing to bet money at 100 to 1 that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats candidate for president - in 2004.

Now, I'm pretty sure that John Kerry will be nominated (unless he is shot before then, or caught in a major league sex scandal, or turns out to be Osama Bin Laden in disguise).

However, $100 is a lot of cash to risk to win $1. So, if Kerry is taken out of the running, would the nomination automatically go to the guy who came second in the primaries?

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
would the nomination automatically go to the guy who came second in the primaries?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

The reason delegates are real people is to give them free choice. While selected as committed to a certain candidate, if something major happens all bets are off.

While the other candidates will have their group of delegates (and 2nd place guy will have more than others), all delegates (and most belong to Kerry) and party leaders will have the free choice to act as they see best. So Hillary could be their choice if they think she is the best option. It would be a return to the old days, when the selection actually happened at the convention, and you could end up with Hillary, one of the guys who ran, or a dark horse compromise nominee.

I think accepting the 100/1 bet on Hillary is +EV (go ahead, earn your dollar), but it is not completely risk free. I think Edwards would have the best shot at getting a Kerry-free nomination.

btw - one of the strengths of the electoral college is that it is also composed of real people - who can act as they think best if something unusual happens.

[poker-penguin]

It is plus EV, but the variance might be a killer. Although if she wanted to be president this time round, she would have run in the primaries, right?

Next time I'll keep my damn mouth shut about American politics when around a certain feisty American woman.

But since my friend isn't here, I think if Hillary is going to be the first female candidate, let alone president, she'll have to start ramping her 2008 campaign up now.

Thanks, I think I'll take the bet - that dollar will get me about 100 when someone other than Schumacher wins the driver's championship this year [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if Hillary is going to be the first female candidate, let alone president, she'll have to start ramping her 2008 campaign up now.


[/ QUOTE ]

In modern day America, this is true of just about any candidate that wants to win (except maybe the incumbant).

[jokerswild]

.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
So, if Kerry is taken out of the running, would the nomination automatically go to the guy who came second in the primaries?

[/ QUOTE ]

While it appears that people who voted in the Deomcratic primaries voted for Kerry, they actually voted for delegates to the Democratic convention who were pledged to vote for Kerry. The rules vary from state to state, but in general, an elected delgate must vote on the first ballot for the candidate he pledged to represent. If no one is nominated on the first ballot, because no candidate gets a majority, the delegates are usually free to vote for any one as they see fit after that.

[Nepa]

Why is the Far out Right so Afraid of Hillary?

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is the Far out Right so Afraid of Hillary?

[/ QUOTE ]

I consider myself to be a moderate and an independent. Hillary scares the crap out of me. Without getting into details, both of the Clintons have two fatal flaws:

1. They are self-centered, power hungry elitists. They believe that they are destined to rule, and will do anything they can to get and keep power. (Money is part of power in their world.)

2. They have the prototypical elitist view that the average citizen is too stupid to breathe without extensive government controls and regulations to protect us from ourselves.