Turn raise with a draw

This was a hand that I played several years ago. I posted it on this board and it turned into a fairly long thread with all kinds of comments (both good and bad) on my play. I can’t remember what my thinking then was but I know what my thinking now would be if the hand were to take place today. Anyway, we now have several new regular posters on this board and I thought it would be interesting to get your perspective.


Here’s the hand from a loose 10-20 game.


I am on the button and limp with 9c8c. 6 others have already limped ahead of me. The sb calls. The bb is an elderly gentleman who plays an ultra conservative game. He raises (a bb raise from him signifies to me that he has AA or KK with a slight chance of QQ or AKs). We all call and take the flop 9 handed for 2 bets each making the pot $180.


Flop: AJT rainbow (can’t remember if there was even one club on the board).


The bb bets. 4 players including me call. The sb folds leaving the bb as the player to my immediate left. The pot is $230.


Turn: 2 (can’t remember if it put a 2 flush out there – if it matters in your final analysis, please indicate as such).


The bb bets again. I now rule out KK/QQ. He has AA with a slight chance of AKs. The other 3 players call again. The pot now has $310.


I raise.


The bb calls. 2 guys fold and one other chap calls. The pot is now at $390.


River: 7


It’s checked to me. I bet and the bb paid off. The other guy folded.


All comments appreciated.

Why would you raise the turn? You're surely going to have to make a hand to win this pot and your hand has no showdown value. In addition a K is possibly a split pot situation. Raising the flop for a free card is fine, but raising the turn makes no sense.

I don't like the turn raise for the following reasons.


1. Were you raising for value? No. You are possibly drawing dead. What appears to be an open ended str8 draw is actually a gutshot draw since a Queen will very likely make some one elses hand. I consider a raising with a draw on 4th street when I at least had a draw to the nuts and a minimum of 9 outs. You have neither.


2. Were you raising as a semi-bluff? I hope not. A predictable opponent has said very clearly that he likes his hand. The chances of him folding are slim, not mention the other three players. I also don't like to semi-bluff with multi-way action in a loose game.


3. Were you raising to make people fold? I suppose you could justify the raise by hoping that someone with a K would fold, thus giving you up to 4 additional outs. The pot is so big that I think only a really bad, passive player would fold a King for one more bet.

reason #1 should be drawing to a split pot, not drawing dead. Don't know what I was thinking.

I don't really understand the raise. I'll assume there is not a flush possible but if there was a flush possible then your raise makes even less sense, unless of course it is two clubs on the board. If you suspect BB has AA then there is no way in hell he is folding so the raise is a poor semi-bluff.


Again assuming no flush is available, your outs are only a 7 or a Q, however, a Q gives anyone with a single K the big straight so there is a good chance that the Q is not an out and you are drawing to four outs. It's probably worth the call on the turn but why pay the extra bet by raising? Perhaps your thinking that a raise will make someone with a K fold and if the Q hits you are good. That is the only reason I can see for raising.


When the 7 does hit on the river it's not that scary of a board and if the BB has AA he will probably still bet out and then you can raise him and make the same amount of money, if the 7 didn't hit you save one big bet.


Anyway that's my take on it... I'd hate to replay some of the hands I played a year or two ago... scary!!!

I'm trying to multi-task at work and post on 2+2 at the same time. going nutz.

pre-flop-


good


flop-


its a call, but i would only consider the 4 7's as outs here.


turn-


again, drawing to 4 outs i would just call.


the 7 on the river would look pretty inconspicuous,providing good implied odds, i am sure the bb is sweating a K or Q popping for the gutshot broadway. your raise here as 11.5:1 dog is suspect. although it may cause the action to get checked to you when you hit a Q and therefore you can show it down rather than get bet out of the pot when the Q is good for you.


river-


of course you bet here.

I don't really like the turn raise.


First, four of your outs are going to split almost half the time. There is a pretty good chance the rock has one (more ways to have AK than AA on this board), and a good chance that one of the other three players has one (KJ and KT are likely hands). I'd say you'll win the whole pot about half the time and split it half, so I'd say your four outs are really the equivalent of three outs. And if the turn card really does put a two flush on board, then I'd take away another equivalent out. So I'd count on having about six outs, and I'd say I have almost no chance of winning unless I make my hand.


I wouldn't raise the turn because:


1) I probably win less bets when I win and lose more when I lose. After you raise, you'll probably get checked to on the river and are less likely to get over calls. If you just call the turn, you might have 3 callers to you on the river and get to raise. By raising the turn you're risking 2 bets to win 1 instead of risking 1 bet to win 2.


2) There is very little chance of getting the rock to fold, and even if he does, you still will probably get called down by at least one of the limpers and you have no showdown value.


3) You aren't getting the best of it by raising your draw even if the other four players will always call. I assumed 6-7 equivalent outs with 46 cards unseen, but even if you assume that all 8 outs are good and assume there are only 44 cards unseen if you know the rock has AA, you still will make your hand less than 1 out of five times.

skp,


I can't understand why you raised the turn. With only have 4 opponents, it can't be a value raise. I think that you make matters worse for yourself on the river with a turn raise. If the river comes a relatively innocuous 7, then there is some chance that the BB would bet into the field if you had not raised the turn, but he will not do so if you raise the turn. The BB will never reraise the turn, which is good in that you won't lose customers for your draw, bad in that he won't make a K fold. So what were the good comments regarding raising the turn? Sorry that I don't have time to be more thoughtful right now, but dinner and a paper are calling my name.


-Dan