Bubbling

[Prickly Pete]

Party 200+15, 4 left 50-100, I have 1600 on the button with AKo. UTG (275) folds - damn. SB has 1400, BB has 6725. BB has reraised allin any non allin bets while on the bubble and has shown 83, 62, TT etc. If I go allin, I expect he will call with any decent hand (including all pairs). If I make a small raise, I'm 99% sure he will raise allin with any 2.

What's the play?

[ClimbRock512]

Do you peg him to be a strong player? one capable of folding to what appears to be a superior hand?

If you limp will he raise allowing you to push?

What about a strong bet but not a push?

Try something you haven't tried before.

You could always limp/fold becuase UTG has a good chance of busting next hand. Is he only pushing all in? Very good chance you have a better hand than he does, so maybe just push and you'll be a favorite or he'll fold.

I hate to see a fold with AK with no raises preflop. Its poker, all you can do is get your money in with the best hand. Which you will most likely do. Should you get outdrawn.... well so is poker. If you double up, you now have a much better chance of taking first.

Conclusion: Push.
If you don't want to risk it, raise to 350 and dump to a raise, but I think push is the move, you can't be too far behind if you aren't a favorite.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
If you limp will he raise allowing you to push?

What about a strong bet but not a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 99% confident he will push allin with any 2 cards on anything less than an allin raise by me.

[Nepa]

Myself I would fold with the UTG playin' with 275 and an over aggressive big stack just wanting to put you all-in. The only other move is all-in if you are looking more for the win than just the money.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Unless you think he'll fold about half the time you push in, just fold and see if the short stack makes it through the blinds. You have 16 big blinds left. You don't have to force the issue yet.

[PrayingMantis]

This is an interesting situation.

Let's put it this way - you raise 3XBB, SB folds and BB pushes. You see his cards: he has, say, J9o.

Do you call?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

See, I don't want this situation with one player being so short-stacked. In your scenario, he loses 30% of the time, and the 70% of the time he does win, he doesn't necessarily double his $EV.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
See, I don't want this situation with one player being so short-stacked. In your scenario, he loses 30% of the time, and the 70% of the time he does win, he doesn't necessarily double his $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you'll lose more: about 35% of the time. But if I understand what you're saying here, making this 3XBB raise and then call his all-in, is marginal even with, say QQ, since you'll find yourself, against this guy, losing between 15-30% of the time. Not a huge difference.

[alieneyes]

With this level of confidence I'd be tempted to try an induce a bluff by limping, which I'd call. Yes you're on the bubble but you have a good chance to double up and I've got to believe this is + EV given how 3200 in chips would give you solid second chip position and put you almost equal. If it doesn't get raised you can play accordingly on the flop.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If the short stack has 800 instead of 275, it's a much closer call. Here, why bother messing with a big stack who won't fold when all three other players can take the little guy out with minimal risk?