How do you win your big pots?

[CrisBrown]

Hi all,

I haven't posted for awhile, but thought I'd toss this query out for consideration:

What proportion of your big pots are won with: (a) value bets; (b) bluffs; (c) bluff-catchers?

I find I don't win many big pots with value bets. To win a big pot with a value bet, I have to catch a best hand when someone else has a big, second-best hand. That combination doesn't happen all that often.

I win a few big pots with bluffs, or what I think are bluffs. Some of my "bluff" hands are probably best hands and my opponents folding missed draws or such. I think of these as bluffs because I don't have a hand that I think is likely to win if called.

However, most of my big pots seem to be bluff-catchers. That is, I have a hand that I don't think is strong enough to bet -- I think if I bet, I'll only be called by a better hand -- but it's a hand that can beat a good portion of the hands that might bet into me.

Here's an example from last night, a $2/4 on PokerStars. I have $267, up from a $160 buy-in. I bought short because I didn't plan to be playing very long, and because I hadn't been playing very well lately. (Thanks for the tip, Matt Flynn!) Very Aggressive Player (VAP) is in the CO with $79. I call him VAP because he's pushed in several times, both pre-flop and on the flop. VAP open-limps, button and SB fold, and I check with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I have second pair and a weak kicker, but I think VAP would have raised pre-flop with an Ace or KQ. I bet $8 into the $10 pot. He calls. Maybe a baby pair, maybe he's hit the 3, or maybe, MAYBE a very weak Ace that he's not confident with. Not sure.

Turn: [Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Now I decide my QJ is definitely a bluff-catcher. If I bet out here, I'd have to fold to any big raise. So I check, and he bets $8 into a $26 pot. That seems like an weak bet to me, not what I'd expect from VAP on an Ace or a 3. So I call.

River: [Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I think I may have the best hand, but I'm still thinking if I bet out, I'm not likely to be called by a worse hand. So I check again, and VAP moves all-in for his last $59. This makes me think he doesn't have a 3, because if he did, he'd be trying to sell the hand, not overbetting it. And I still don't think he has an Ace, because he'd have raised it pre-flop, or raised me on the flop. The more I think, the more I think my Q is good, or at worst splitting it.

I call and he turns up T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], for bottom two pair and a busted flush draw, and I take the $157 pot.

And this is how I win most of my big pots. Not on value bets, which seem to rarely get called. (In fact, of 112 hands last night, this was the ONLY hand I showed down.) Not on bluffs, though I win a few of those. But on bluff-catchers.

So ... is this a weakness in my game? Should I have been value-betting here?

Cris

[josie_wales]

Cris,

You are asking if we think you played it correctly?

You had a read on a player. Went with it.

Sounds correct to me.

(Notice that I left off the "Won" part...So as to not be results oriented. Your read seemed solid, and the hand well played)

josie wales

[cornell2005]

exactly how i play it from the flop on. i often check call the turn, and very often check call the river here. i think betting out is horrible.

you couldnt exactly put him on a draw, but in a hand you did, and the draw misses, i like to check call or raise the river against a smart or aggressive opponent. i see alot of bets on the river where alot more money could be made with checks.

[Richie Rich]

Nice "catch", Cris, and good read. However, this crime-stopping crusade becomes a lot harder when the suspect puts you all-in and has you covered...

[CrisBrown]

Hi Richie

[ QUOTE ]
Nice "catch", Cris, and good read. However, this crime-stopping crusade becomes a lot harder when the suspect puts you all-in and has you covered...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. It sure as hell does.

Cris

[turnipmonster]

just my estimates, I don't have exact figures or anything:

value bets: 80%
bluffs: 10%
bluff catching: 5%
sucking out: 5%

people don't seem to try and bluff me very often late in a hand (on the turn/river). usually in the games I play if I am playing a big pot I am a lot of times committed on the turn anyways, so that's probably why. I must admit I don't generally see as much bluffing a busted draw in PL as I do in NL. this may be my specific game though.

--turnipmonster