Weak play? 10/20 HE online

(posted in internet forum, but I'd also like to see what people think here).


10/20 HE, 8 players, a decent guy to my right, some loose-aggressive player selsewhere. Some solid players.


In SB with AJc.


UTG (loose) limps, loose-callingstation-aggressive limps, button (decent guy) raises. I muck. Is this weak? I figure my flush draw is good, of course, but flopping an A won't help. Note that I play a VERY low variance style, which I prefer. My bankroll is very limited ($800). Is calling +EV here? I'm not even sure it is, since I'm heavily out of position, and if I flop a flush, with aggressor to my right, this heavily limits my ability to check-raise and trap the limpers, which is something I heavily depend on to make my winning pots larger.


Thanks!


- Tony

Tony,


800 dollars is a decent "session" bankroll for 10-20, but if it is your "total" bankroll you are in way too big of a game.


With AJs in the SB I would fold to a raise.


The odds of floping a flush are 118-1.


The odds of floping a flush DRAW are 8-1, and the pot was only laying you at best 5.3-1 odds (if the BB and limpers call) and there was no re-raise.

The button is clearly not on a steal with 2 limpers in already, so I think your fold is fine. If instead, everyone had folded to the button and he raised, you should reraise and force out the BB so you can play heads up against a probable steal.


If $800 is all the money you are willing to commit to online play, you are playing way too high (this is a decent bankroll for 2-4). If you are willing to buy in for a few $K more should you lose the $800, then you should be fine as long as you keep playing well.

I know $800 is way too little of a bankroll. I started with around $700 though, and hopefully I can build from here... If I lose, then so be it! I estimate my STD to be 10BB/hour or less, maybe 8BB/hour, and my hourly earn to be 1BB+/hour, so I have a good chance of not busting out, hopefully!!!


- Tony

Assuming a 8BB/hour SD and a win rate of $25/hour, we'll use Mason's equations from Gambling Theory and Other Topics to determine your chances of going bust.


LL = lower limit (this is -800, since you can only lose $800)

WR = win rate

N = hours played

SD = standard deviation

n = confidence (in number of SD's)


LL = WR * N - n * SD * N^(1/2)


The first derivative with respect to N (which will find us the value of N which minimizes LL):


0 = WR - 1/2 * n * SD * N^(-1/2)


Solving for the value of N which yields the minimal LL using the differential:

N = ( n*SD / 2*WR )^2

N = ( n*160 / 2*25 )^2 = 10.24*n^2


Subbing this back into the LL equation:

-800 = 25 * 10.24*n^2 - n * 160 * (10.24*n^2)^1/2


which leads to:

n = 1.77


This means you should be able to assure a win with your $800 bankroll with a confidence of 1.77 standard deviations, or about 96%.


If we redo the result with a SD of 10BB/hour and a win rate of $20/hour, we get a confidence of 1.26 standard deviations, or about 90%.


So you stand a 4-10% chance of going bust, assuming your SD and expectation are actually within the range you give. I am a little surprised your chances are this good, although even a 7% risk of ruin is a little high for my tastes.

Nice post Coilean, thanks!


Suprising, I estimated my chance of busting at 20% or more.... A risk I was willing to take to build up a bankroll...


My style of play at .50/1 produces a 9-10BB/hour STD.


I'm playing even more low variance at 10/20... (due to low bankroll, obviously). The game seems similar to the .50/1 games I play (I play late at night, .50/1 where the games are much tigher, last night the preflop percentage was 20-22% at a full table .50/1 game, and yes I stuck around... you can steal the blinds with an open raise!).


Anyways, I know the 10/20 is tougher, but I still feel I probably have an 8 or maybe less BB/hour STD. Wow, that's a very low risk of going bust!


- Tony