Mirage 10-20: Do you like this river card?

This hand is from an afternoon game at the Mirage.


The hand:


Everybody folds to me in middle position. I open-raise with AsKc. It's folded to the button who makes it 3 bets. The blinds fold and it's heads-up.


The button is HOT! Two hands earlier he raised out of his big blind with AA. The very next hand he raised out of his small blind- with AA again. Now he's 3-betting. However, I didn't get the impression that he was "playing his rush". In the short time I had the opportunity to watch him play, he wasn't showing any loose-aggressive tendancies.


The flop is: Ts,6c,4s


I check. The button bets. I call.


The turn is: Ts,6c,4s,5h


I check and the button checks behind me.


The river is: Ts,6c,4s,5h,Kd


Do you like this river card? What's your play?

You like the river card, although it might not have put you ahead.


Your play is to check.


Assuming he is good and not assuming he has any read on you:


His likely 3-bet hands A,K A,Q A,A K,K Q,Q J,J T,T and maybe A,X


He checks the turn behind you. Eliminate Q,Q J,J T,T (and maybe K,K) because I doubt he is giving you a free shot at overcards.


Leaves A,K A,Q A,A K,K


Your bet will only get called with hands that likely beat you. However, a check might induce bluffs from hands that you beat (e.g., A,Q or A,X or a small pair).


What is the correct flop play? I would try and control here with a lead raise or a check-raise or fold. I hate the check-call because you are getting poor odds depending on the hands you place on your opponent. If you don't hit an outer you place yourself in bad position on the turn. With aggression you can possibly steal if a blank hits.

I'd think he three bet with a standard raising hand, and since he didn't bet the turn I don't think it was a pair, so I would put him on AK or AQs.


I'd bet the river.

You have to like this river card. I don't see why you wouldn't. I would put on A,Q or possibly A,Js.


By the button checking the turn behind you, you almost for sure have the best hand here.


Bet this river and collect the money [img]/images/smile.gif[/img]

He probably puts you on AK or AQ or maybe TT when you just call his 3-bet and call on the flop. He probably 3-bets preflop with AK or AA-JJ. He would bet JJ and probably QQ on the turn to pick up the pot. His most likely holdings are AA, KK, or AK. I would check-call the river here.

Why do you think he would not bet the turn with AA or KK? Thanx.

The guy sounds like a maniac to me.


I would have put him on 4d2d and folded the flop!

He very well might, but he also might be trying to trap AK or induce a bluff. I'm a bit surprised that he checked the turn, but given that he checked the turn, I think AA or KK is more likely than QQ or JJ. I think an A would have been a better card for Dynasty than a K.