Bad fold?

[mikech]

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed)

UTG+1 ($69.75)
UTG+2 ($216)
MP1 ($137.62)
MP2 ($753.26)
MP3 ($145.50)
CO ($96)
Hero ($396.48)
SB ($185)
BB ($98)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 raises to $7, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $7, MP2 calls $7, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($33) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
UTG+1 bets $31.35, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $64.35


I went into the tank on this until the beeping started. Given the odds that the pot was laying me, and his possible/probable hands, I really wanted to put him all-in and ran the cards down. The more I think about it, the more I believe I should have. Thoughts?

[Richie Rich]

I'd say you were most likely against one of those "cute" players who likes to raise AA/KK to 7 BTF, to give the impression that it could very well be AK. But when he bet the pot on the flop, I'd say you're almost certainly against AA/KK.

Against KK, you're a 3:2 underdog...
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=7s+...+Js%0D%0AKh+Kd

Against AA, you're almost a 2:1 underdog...
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=7s+...+Js%0D%0AAh+Ad

Since you're up against a relatively short stack, the implied odds are gone and you need to consider the effective odds. You're getting almost correct odds to go all-in on the flop...but if you just call his flop bet and then miss on the turn, then he's most likely to go all-in on the turn (with about $95 in the pot). Do you want to call? You'd be about a 4:1 underdog, and it would cost you about $60 to match his bet. That would be(95+60):60 = approximately 2.5:1 odds.

So in short, I'd say you either go all-in on the flop or fold.

[mikech]

I didn't think he had AA, I figured him for KK or QQ. As I was pondering his bet, I asked him, "Got a pair?" When I folded he showed me 99.

If I had known that was his hand, of course I would've put him all-in and taken my chances, a 50-50 shot to win a pot giving me 3-to-2. Obviously that's hindsight, but considering the range of hands he might plausibly make that flop-bet with, I think I should've pushed in:

With KK/QQ he's a 60%-40% favorite, matching exactly the pot odds.
With JJ he's only a 55%-45% favorite.
With A-10 he's also 55%-45%.
If he's overplaying AK (or even AQ) he's in fact a slight dog at 42%-46%.
And with his actual hand, 99, it's 50%-50%.

So, only with AA would I not be getting pot odds. The reason I folded was that I had invested only $7 into the pot at that point; I decided I didn't want to put $62 more in. However, it looks like that would've been the +EV play.