WSOP $3k NLHE - absurd call?

[Ulysses]

$3k NLHE report

Chip Count:
John Kabbaj $900,000
Ram Vaswani $655,000
Mike Sica $400,000

blinds at $15,000-$30,000 ($5,000 ante).

Shortly thereafter, Sica raises to $100,000 from the button, Vaswani raises all in, and Sica calls. Vaswani shows As 5s, Sica shows Kd 2h. The flop comes 3d 6d 7c. The turn comes Ad, pairing Vaswani's ace, but giving Sica a flush draw. The river spikes 4d. Sica catches runner-runner diamonds and wins with a flush. Vaswani is down to about $470,000, Sica has over $600,000.

That pre-flop all-in call w/ K2o for about $250k with about $350k in the middle makes absolutely no sense to me. Anyone?

[Dynasty]

If he folds, he'll have just T300,000 against two opponents who have him outchipped at least 2:1. He also only has enough chips left for five orbits. Those two facts make it likely that he will finish in third place in this tournament.

If he calls and loses, he finishes 3rd.

If he calls and wins, he doubles up, nearly catches the chip leader, and puts Vaswani in reallly bad shape. Sica is very likely to finish at least second.

So, it all comes down to how big a dog K2o is against Vaswani's all-in hand. Against a pocket pair, he's in bad shape (~3:1). Against another King, he's in bad shape (~3:1). After that, he's only in trouble against an Ace-high hand and he'll win that 1/3 of the time.

If Vaswani is pushing in with stuff like QJo, 87s, and many other hands which I think he probably would, K2o is a favorite.

Don't look at K2o and say "That hand sucks". Hands have relative value, not absolute value. Sometimes K-high is good. And, it's rarely that big of an underdog, especially against a non pocket pair.

[schroedy]

I am not sure about the chips counts because the ending position doesn't add up to me. If your final count is right then the small stack seems to have started with less than 200K and is definitely pot committed after the quasi-steal attempt.

Even if the small stack is $400k to start, $100K is somewhat close to Brunson's "1/3 of stack = pot committed" especially as the small stack late in a tournament. If the raise is not called, then what should be the small/crippled stack's strategy -- post and fold and hope for second?

I think the 100K went in on a steal attempt and then the player decided to try and get lucky here rather than grinding it back from a crippled position -- or posting and folding waiting and hoping for a "big stack" confrontation to improve to 2d at best.

[Ulysses]

They didn't post exact chip counts - those were from a couple of hands prior. Sounds like he had something over $300k to start the hand.

[TripKings]

I too think it looks rather questionsble, but we weren't there either. Could have been a read, trying to get lucky, a deal had been made. Eitherway, he for some reason felt pot commited or felt he had the best hand... but there had to be a reasonable percentage in his mind that he was behind... and with a braclet on the line after a 10 hour break? On the surface it looks like I lay it down - I would rather not call off my money with K2o in many spots.

-TripKings

[Richie Rich]

Sica was a 2:1 underdog to Vaswani's hand before the flop:
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=...+5s%0D%0AKd+2h

Since he already put 100k into the pot, he was getting 7:3 odds to call Vaswani's all-in. Decent call when you look at the numbers. I'm sure these guys have run thousands of simulations in their poker careers...they know what the approx odds are before the flop.

Maybe Sica put Vaswani on a connector (like QJ or 109) and thought he was trying to buy the pot off of him. In that case, his odds were:
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=...+Jc%0D%0AKd+2h

If so, K2o was a PF favorite. Who knew?...

[Ulysses]

He probably has something like 230k chips left at this point. There are about 390k chips in the middle. That's 1.7:1. Against even 78o he's just a 54:46 favorite, he's a 70:30 dog to pocket 3's, a 75:25 dog to a lot of hands such as KJo, and a 66:33ish dog to Ace-high hands, I don't like how he stacks up against the range of hands I think SB will push w/ here, knowing that his opponent will call w/ anything reasonable.

I don't think this sucks because K2o is a bad hand, Dynasty. I think this sucks because I think he has a better chance to improve on third by folding here than he does by calling.

If he had 300k left after this as you thought in your response, I would dislike a call even more.

[turnipmonster]

why is it every time I read about a hand from the wpt, it's just some famous poker pros moving in with trash preflop? I've never seen the wpt, but it sounds like I'd rather watch paint dry.

--turnipmonster

[Acesover8s]

The WSOP is not part of the WPT.

[Rushmore]

Although all of this looks to be good and true and right and accurate, one thing that never gets discussed in these situations is one of the most important: regardless of the pot odds, if I eat this loss on this hand, can I outplay this player and win?

If the answer is yes, and you're playing to win, you have to consider a fold here.