Party Sub-Qual, good for a shot or sucker bet?

[adam61]

I was eyeing these sub-qualifiers to the weekly $200+15 tourneys on party. Quick description they are 10 person SNGs top 2 get entry into one of the $24+2 Qualifiers and Third basically gets their money back. Then you'd play a tougher to win $24+2 SNG where 1st gets entry into the weekly $200+15 and 2nd gets their money back.

Just running some quick math. I'd have about a 25% chance of winning a seat in a a real qualifier, and another 15% chance of getting my money back. About 40% total. That doesn't seem so bad.

The $24+2 seem a bit more difficult which is why I was trying to avoid entering them directly. Only first really gets anything and in general I take first about 15% of the time. Another 10% of the time I'd get my money back. I wanted to start getting my feet wet in some MTTs while I continue to fine tune my SNG play. Since my specialty is SNGs is the best way in through these 2 qualifiers, through a $10+1 MTT Satellite, or to just enter directly into the small payout $10+1 and $20+2 events?

I've played Multi-Table tournaments before but took a break for a while to focus on my SNG play. Here's my results...they don't mean a whole lot. I played 14 $10+1 MTTs to the 200k Sunday. I qualified 3 out of 14 times. $154 for $645 in entries isn't too bad. In the 3 Sunday tourneys I played I placed 44th for about $770, 175th and 339th. The only reason I lean towards trying to qualify for the big events as opposed to the smaller ones is for a higher quality of experience when I make it, and a potential huge payoff, but the tradeoff's may not be worth it. I know this post has MTT and SNG implications, I wasn't sure where to post it.

Thanks for input.

[37offsuit]

I can't see as it's a bad route to take. Since SNGs are your strong suit, you'll likely be playing against a mixture of regular SNG players and those who play a lot of MTT and want a cheap way in.