how likely is it to be losing after...

[Chub]

How likely is it to be losing after 300 hours if your BB/h (big bets per hour) is 0.5/1.0/1.5 and your sd is 10/12/14? Anyone care to answer or a simple formula to calculate that would be great too. Thanks.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
How likely is it to be losing after 300 hours if your BB/h (big bets per hour) is 0.5/1.0/1.5 and your sd is 10/12/14? Anyone care to answer or a simple formula to calculate that would be great too. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll do 3 of these at once, (0.5, 10); (1.0, 12); (1.5, 14); and you can do the other combinations.

300*[0.5, 1.0, 1.5] - sqrt(300)*[10, 12, 14]*S < 0

S is the number of standard deviations below average.

S > [ sqrt(300)*0.5/10, sqrt(300)*1.0/12, sqrt(300)*1.5/14 ]

These correspond to probabilities of 19.3%, 7.4%, and 3.2% from the standard normal distribution, Excel function normsdist(-S).