Routine Fold

[Chris Daddy Cool]

4/8 B&M

I got A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. Sitting on my direct right is the CO, a solid tight aggressive player and the rest are a bunch of fish in the sea.

UTG calls. UTG+1 calls. MP2 calls. CO calls. I raise. SB folds. BB calls. The limpers call. 6 to the flop.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB comes out betting. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP2 calls. CO raises. I 3bet. BB folds. UTG calls. MP2 calls. CO caps. I fold...

Easy fold right? 3betting was the right line too right?

[Homer]

I don't think it's quite as easy a fold as you think. You're getting 28:1. While it's true that much of the time CO will have a set, some of the time he'll have two-pair with A9s or A5s, and in those cases you have 3 outs and are 15:1 against catching on the turn. What percentage of the time do you think he'll have a set?

-- Homer

[Homer]

If you assume he'll play the same way with 99/55/A9s/A5s, he'll have a set 3/4 of the time, so I guess I was wrong and it is a rather easy fold, since you need him to have a set less than ~half the time to justify taking one off.

-- Homer

[J.R.]

Isn't there a chance he has A5s or A9s and knows you are far more likely to have AK/AQ/AJ that AA here so he caps?

Wouldn't he be more likely to smoothcall 99 or 55 here?

Maybe not, but I would be more inclined to cap 2 pair and smoothcall a set, since you look like you have a one pair hand here and he doesn't want to loose you with a set.

I like three-betting the flop if you are sure he won't cap without a set, otherwise you make a very weak looking fold in a huge pot with the odds to outdraw two pair.

If you 3-bet with the intention of checking the turn because he wouldn't cap 2 pair then I like it, or if he would play a medium Ace this way, but if you think you are behind I don't see much value in it because you may end up make a fold that is bad for both image and EV reasons.

[Mike Gallo]

What percentage of the time do you think he'll have a set?

Unless he has a problem with premature ejaculation he most likely does not have a set. Most players will wait until the turn to raise with a set.

[Mike Gallo]

Easy fold right?

Wrong, I would not consider this an easy fold.

[Homer]

Unless he has a problem with premature ejaculation he most likely does not have a set. Most players will wait until the turn to raise with a set.

True, but 30% of men suffer from premature ejaculation, so the possbility of a set must be considered.

[LetsRock]

I think 3 betting is pretty manditory here - now's the time to find out just how strong Co's hand is.

Don't like his cap, but I don't think it's an autofold by any means. Feels a lot like a set, but could be 2 pair, maybe even a gutshot with a backdoor flush draw (a stretch, I know). Depends on just how aggressive he is. I think I'd have to see the turn hoping for a Q for 1 more SB. UTG and MP2 probably have a weak aces (your aces are either out or thin) so a couple of Qs would sure look sweet on the tail (but that would be a lot to ask for).

I looks like you'll get to showdown for 2 bets if you choose, so I'm thinking I want to see his cards (your kicker is pretty strong to bought off for a couple of SBs). There's 12BB in the pot before CO's cap (24:1 to peel off the turn). You'll get ~8:1 to see the river. ~10:1 to showdown. Seems like good enough odds to me (most of the time).

There's exacly 27 sets of cards that he could hold and be ahead of you. 1 is AA and 8 are AK. I think you can safely eliminate these hands since he didn't raise PF.

There's 12 combinations of A9, A5 but only 2 are suited which would fit into the "tight image".

There are 6 combinations of 99,55. That makes a total of 8 hands that he's likely to be holding that beat you (assuming your tight aggressive read is correct).

I think I'd take my chances going to showdown with my AQ here. May EVEN be worth popping the turn to chase the other weak aces away. Maybe.

Of course, you don't get the half hour I spent figuring all this out while you're in the hand, but I just spent the time justifying to myself why I would tend to call this down, because I probably would (barring a pair on the board).

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I just didn't think he'd cap my 3bet without a set.

Also in two other hands I've seen him cap the flop and still go for a checkraise on the turn and river in the same hand.

But you guys are of course right. Its not as nearly as easy a fold as I made it out to be.

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
I just didn't think he'd cap my 3bet without a set.


[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your gut, then go with it.

[ QUOTE ]
Also in two other hands I've seen him cap the flop and still go for a checkraise on the turn and river in the same hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That kept you from calling? This move equals free river card to me if the turn doesn't bring help.