Have a guess

t_perkin · #1 05-06-2004, 02:41 PM

Ok this one is from the Euro SnG last week:

Down to the last 4:

Me: (2100 in chips)
Stone_Eyes (4367 in chips)
neutron999 (9383 in chips)
blkjac (11150 in chips)

Blinds are 400/800 with 50 ante

I am on the SB with Jc 5c
Stoneii is on the BB

(1300 in the pot)

I push in.

First up, have a guess at what my probability of winning this hand is if stoneii calls me down with anything.

next tell me:

Should I have pushed in?

Tim

Chief911 · #2 05-06-2004, 08:14 PM

Can't answer some of your questions, but I wouldn't push with that. /shrug.

JGalt · #3 05-06-2004, 09:52 PM

I'd have to say pre-flop you are 50/50 or you have a very very slight advantage over him.

As far as pushing in, I would probably have waited it out. You'll be the button next hand and still have a stack that could get you to double up or steal some blinds, BUT from what I gather on these forums you and stoneii probably play with each other often and would know how he plays and if this would be a good possibility to steal the blinds, which would be my, and I'm sure yours, main goal.

Peter Harris · #4 05-07-2004, 08:32 AM

1) J5s has to be a below average hand. the suited doesn't add value. i'd reckon between 36 and 45% against any two.

2) i wouldn't push with it.

3) with any ace, any pair and any two cards above a 9+ i would call you in a flash, i'd consider Kx as well depending on my read of you.

I guess he called with an A and it held up.

Pete

t_perkin · #5 05-07-2004, 09:10 AM

J5s is (almost) exactly 50% against any two.

I think that my move was ok here for the following reasons:

Simple pot odds give me big +EV due to the large blinds (assuming he calls with any two)

Stoneii is the competitor that is probably the biggest challenger to me, crippling him is worth more to me than taking some chips from one of the other players.

4th and 3rd place make so little money that it is worth taking a few chances to get to second. (if stoneii were to get knocked out by one of the others then I would be the small stack by a long way)

I would like some more thoughts on this. Am I very wrong here?

Tim

Stoneii · #6 05-07-2004, 09:10 AM

called with a Q and it held up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

TylerD · #7 05-07-2004, 09:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
4th and 3rd place make so little money that it is worth taking a few chances to get to second. (if stoneii were to get knocked out by one of the others then I would be the small stack by a long way)

[/ QUOTE ]

With the two table SnG's, as you know, each place is worth an extra 10%, therefore unlike standard SnGs creeping up the pay ladder is more important IMO.