KK river decision

[Glurfle]

Party 2/4

MP1 is new to the table, so no read on him. EP is generally loose and passive, but seems to be steaming a bit because a hand or two previous my 85o in the BB boated up while his Q8 didn't. In the past, I've seen him open-limp AQo in EP, so I'm inclined to treat his preflop raise as a big pair. Likely not AA/KK when he doesn't cap, but who knows, he may have it in for me now. Generally not too tricky, but on the previous hand he call/capped his trips on the flop, so he'll try to slowplay to some extent. Edit: My image at this table should be squeaky tight. Terrible cards up to now, seen maybe 15% of flops. Anyone paying attention will likely put me on a big pair when I 3-bet preflop.

UTG limps, EP raises, MP1 (poster) calls, folded to me on the button. I 3-bet K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], BB calls 2, UTG calls 2, EP calls, MP calls. 5 players, 15 SB.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, all call. 5 players, 10 BB.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, EP and MP1 call. 3 players, 13 BB.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

EP bets, MP1 calls, I...really really want to raise, but just call.

JJ's really what I'm worried about here. A 4 is unlikely, 99 is possible but probably not within his usual range of raising hands when he's not steaming. AJ also seems unlikely given his previous play of AQ. I'm pretty sure he'd do more than just check and call with QQ/KK/AA. Basically, by betting into MP and me, he seems worried that I might check through and wants to collect a bet on the end. Doing that suggests to me that he's got something good to show down, most likely JJ, with slight chances of a tricky AA, and an unknown chance that he's becoming overaggressive since he's up against me in this hand.

I'm pretty much ignoring MP here. If he's got me beat, oh well. I think it's wildly unlikely.

[Guido]

Like you said yourself the only likely hand that beats you is JJ (or AA). The fact that he bets the river doesn't convice me he has JJ. I know he's passive but I would raise here if he's passive he probably won't 3-bet and when he does you can fold.

Guido

[Joe Tall]

Raise this river and fold to a 3-bet.

Peace,
Joe Tall