Monster pot, monster hand, should I keep raising?

[MRBAA]

4-8 game, loose and somewhat aggressive. One limper to me in mp and I limp with 66. Another limper and c/o raises. SB folds, BB three bets, first limper calls, I call, next limper calls and original raiser calls. Five see the flop for $12 each.

My rationale for calling two more was that it was highly likely all the limpers would call, so I'd be getting $52-8 (or 6.5-1) immediate odds. Of course the original raiser could cap, but I felt this was a pretty easy call.

Flop comes Q96 (two suited) BB bets, first limper calls, I raise my set, next two players call, BB reraises. He's a somewhat loose, fairly passive sort and his 3-bet surprises me here. First limper folds, I cap it and the other two plus BB call.

Turn comes: Q96 3

No flush on board.

Now BB bets out, despite my cap on flop. Hmmm. I put him on pocket queens given his three bet preflop, three bet on the flop and bet out here. So I just call. So do the two others.

River comes Q963 9.

BB thinks and then bets -- looks like a classic fake pause looking for calls so I fold my full house.



Okay, just kidding. But I do only call. The other two fold BB confidently flips up AQ and I drag a $166 pot.

But should I have raised the turn? Pros: I could have presured the other two players out of a huge pot and increased my chances of winning, even if they had really bad draws with the pot as big as it was getting them out is probably good.

And I could have gotten one more bet from the BB here (and possibly one more from one or both of the other players)

Cons: I was pretty sure I was against QQ and I'd have to call a three bet.

[WDC]

Given your description of the BB, I think you played it right. Did you consider he might have an overpair? If ypu think the possibility is there I would have raised the turn once.

[joker122]

I think you played it well. You might have been able to put in a turn raise - his reaction will instruct you on how to proceed. When someone overplays their hand like BB here you shouldn't feel bad about missing bets because if he didn't overplay you probably would have gotten the same amount of bets in if you were the aggressor. Does that make sense?

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
When someone overplays their hand like BB here you shouldn't feel bad about missing bets because if he didn't overplay you probably would have gotten the same amount of bets in if you were the aggressor. Does that make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not make any sense at all. You make money in poker from other peoples mistakes, the BB made a mistake and the hero FAILED to capitilize on it. This is huge- his non raise on the turn cost him anywhere from 1-3 big bets, if you miss a bet like this once every six hours you are losing from .167-.5 bets per hour. Thats a lot of bets.

[arkady]

BB seriously overplayed that, keep playing with him - what you did not gain on this hand you will gain in the future.

btw, that "i fold just kidding" almost scared me.

[AviD]

The obvious question here is whether to raise the turn or not...and then respectively the river since you didn't raise the turn.

Raising the turn:

- May force out those flush draws behind you, why give them a cheap look at the river?

- Even if you ARE behind to BB's better hand, making it 2BB to those behind you and pushing them out increases your chances of winning the pot.

- Although, this is very read dependent if you *think* the two behind you will call 2 cold on the turn, you are better off raising for value those times your set holds up and the flush doesn't come on the river.

- [ QUOTE ]
Now BB bets out, despite my cap on flop. Hmmm. I put him on pocket queens given his three bet preflop, three bet on the flop and bet out here. So I just call. So do the two others.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB could just be loose, aggressive (as the table texture dictates)...but is he aggressive enough to go for the turn CR rather than betting out with such a strong holding?

I think his bet into you is a sign of weakness, as he is really hoping you will raise (you certainly aren't folding after capping the flop) to push out the draws.

If he had such a strong holding, he would use the fact that you capped the flop to his advantage and check raise the whole field. With either QQ or 99 and no turn flush, this seems like the logical play.

Checking the turn:

- If you are behind, you likely still gain 2BB from the callers behind you. If the river comes a blank or boats you up (as it did), put in your raise then as the two behind you likely aren't calling anyway.


River Calling vs Raising:

I can't imagine what he has you on capping the flop. Perhaps KQ? Perhaps he isn't even thinking about what you have at all...you have to make that read during the hand.

When the 9s pair on the river, boating you up here and not putting your raise in on the turn leaves you in unknown territory.

If the players behind you are likely to call with any piece of the board, it may be worth just calling to get their bets rather than raising and getting 3-bet with QQ.

If you had raised the turn, you'd have a much better idea where you stood with the BB...and could play the river much easier.

Either way, I think you need to raise either the turn (preferably) or the river to maximize the value of your hand.

[MRBAA]

Good analysis, especially on the turn. I think I agree -- a turn raise was in order. I think the BB just fell in love with his hand and didn't think about what I could have.

[pudley4]

Ugh, some of this thinking is just terrrible. (yes, I spelled it with 3 r's, that's how bad it is)

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn:

- May force out those flush draws behind you, why give them a cheap look at the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

No flush draw is folding on the turn. Period. Ain't gonna happen.

[ QUOTE ]
- Even if you ARE behind to BB's better hand, making it 2BB to those behind you and pushing them out increases your chances of winning the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't because there are no hands here that fit this situation:

1-BB has you beat
2-River card puts you ahead of BB
3-River card improves your late opponent more than you
4-Your turn raise makes your late opponent fold.

(If you're behind, you're behind to a set and your only improvement is a 6.)

Also notice that there are 18 BB in the pot after your turn raise. Your late opponents are getting almost correct odds to call with as little as a gutshot. Even if you raise the turn (which you should), you shouldn't be surprised if you're called.

[AviD]

Excellent points, I'm glad someone finally corrects me! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So by your analysis, raising 100% of the time on the turn is in order. Understood.

In respect to raising in hopes of increasing your chances of winning, perhaps I don't understand this concept nearly enough.

The way I understood it, you raise (even if you are behind) to try to weaken up moderately better holdings (now) and to push out any miracle draws (say 77/88/TT). I do agree that the likeliness of having flush drawers fold is nil, except for perhaps tight players with medium-to-low suited cards.

I think I need to evaluate the application of hands to this strategy in more depth, as I am obviously misinterpretting the intentions of it.

[MRBAA]

The thing is that this pot is so big that you want to get even the 2-outers to fold. A turn raise may do this.