flop decision ?

[Thomsen]

CO has lost most of his stack and i think he is tilting

SB no notes

MP1 tight

EP 2 plays a lot of hands aproxx 50-60 % (but not a maniac postflop)

Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Thomsen has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is Button

EP2 limps, MP1 limps, CO raises, Thomsen 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls

Flop(16 SB): J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, EP2 checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Thomsen raises, SB folds, EP2 3-bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, CO is all in, Thomsen ???

[nothumb]

Well, I think there's a decent chance you're beat, but I don't think you can fold just yet. You will get to showdown relatively cheaply if you don't improve, and you're not that scared of either the CO or EP2. It's possible EP2 has a J but just as possible he's got a 9 or a club draw or some combo of straight/flush cards. Either way, knowing you can see the turn/river relatively cheap, I think this is a call, and going into call-down mode after.

[bernie]

Many players who see 50+% that arent maniacs postflop are usually passive, imo. Especially with c/r hands. Meaning, their c/r standard is usually a strong, made hand. They dont usually c/r a draw. Seeing prior hands helps this.

I think you're beat by a J. There's going to be a showdown with the all in in there. I would call then consider folding if bet into on the turn.

BUT, if not sure, call it out and expect to see a J. After all, this isnt someone like Dynasty trying to bump you off a hand.

b

[Joe Tall]

Call the flop and raise a non- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/str8 card on the turn.

Much more often you see a hand like A9 w/A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or QT play the flop like this as the Jack will show strength on a higher street. Can you fold to a turn-3bet? Most definately yes as you've got a showdown w/an all-in player.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Yo bernie,

I think you're beat by a J

I don't. Wouldn't you expect to see turn action for the Jack and flop action from a draw trying to move you off and overpair?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Tosh]

I wouldn't discount a jack just because there was flop action.

[StellarWind]

Sure looks like a J or 99 to me. Pretty vicious way to play a drawing hand. At 24-1 folding is not an option. The least you could possibly do is call and hope for a king.

Joe Tall, explain to me how an all-in player should influence my decision making on the later streets? How would your approach differ if CO were solvent and calling bets? Why do you prefer raise-folding a turn blank to just calling the turn and river when the pot is so large?

[Sarge85]

JT -

I'm 60% certain this is a Jack

It'd be higher, because if *I* was him, and had the case Jack - and had two aggressors (one a maniac, one a LP PF raiser), I'd let them raise the flop, and then I'd CR the turn.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[Joe Tall]

I wouldn't discount a jack just because there was flop action.

Agreed, however answer me this, take into account that your opponent is a thinking player:

1. You hold A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], how do you play this flop?

2. You hold Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], flop play?

3. You hold K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], flop play?

I feel that there are so many more holdings that could make a play at this flop and putting him on a Jack is just too fast.

(I played a similar hand like this last month, I'll wait a bit and post it.)

Peace,
Joe Tall

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop and raise a non- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/str8 card on the turn.

Much more often you see a hand like A9 w/A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or QT play the flop like this as the Jack will show strength on a higher street. Can you fold to a turn-3bet? Most definately yes as you've got a showdown w/an all-in player.


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think raising the turn is that great here. unless my math is off at the point where he 3 bets you there are around 16BB in the pot. that means that if your sure he has a jack or 99 you are right that you have a fold but your two outer is actually worth about .75BB which you are forced to give up. that kind of sucks. you also have to be really really sure that he has you beat here. i understand the significance of the all-in player but that doesnt mean that he does. maybe he has a straight flush draw and thinks thats just the greatest thing in the world. maybe he was trying to be sneaky pre-flop with QQ and just thinks his hand is good. maybe he is just an idiot. i certainly acknowledge that the likelihood of all of these things is pretty small but the combination of all these things i think makes getting 3 bet suck a lot.

the other negatives i see to the turn raise are:
1) if he in fact has a better hand there is a very high probability that he will 3 bet here. if there was more of a chance that that raise would slow him down even with a better hand i dont think it would be as bad.
2) i think its very unlikely that it actually saves you the pot. his potential draws arent folding here so its not like you risk the pot by not raising. you potentially miss out on 1 bet when you guess right. you may not even miss out on that bet if he bluffs his draw on the river. that 1 extra bet you gain when you are right is nearly couterbalanced just by the pot equity you lose by having to fold your 2 outer to a 3 bet. if you factor in the possibility of you folding the best hand even a tiny percentage of the time it looks even worse.
3) if he only calls your turn raise and he bets out on the river your stuck calling an extra bet. even if a club or a potential straight card falls and he bets out i dont think you can fold.
4) if a scare card hits and he checks to you can you value bet in that spot? if not you have risked all the negatives that go along with that turn raise and dont even get an extra bet out of it. if you do bet it and get checkraised thats obviously pretty unpleasant too.