When to let this nut flush draw go?

Joe826 · #1 04-28-2004, 03:00 PM

Ugh. This hand was bothering me all yesterday night and when I woke up this morning so I decided to post it. Calculating these odds confused the hell out of me spur of the moment, that's not really happened to me before. Button and MP2 are both loose players but not normally this aggressive. I initially think MP2 might be on a flush draw as well but when he caps I know he's got something more then that. After the turn I was certain someone had the straight (I was pretty sure on the flop) and so I didn't bother calling the river even though the pot was so huge and I had top pair. When do you get away from this hand? When you have to cold-call two on the flop?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players) 
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG folds, MP2 caps, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players) 
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button raises, Hero calls, MP2 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (22 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players) 
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button raises, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB
Main Pot: 26 BB, between MP2 and Button. > Pot won by Button (26 BB).

Results in white below: 
MP2 shows 4d 6c (two pair, sixes and fours).
Button shows 8d 7c (straight, eight high).
Outcome: Button wins 26 BB.

Mike Gallo · #2 04-28-2004, 03:07 PM

The button flopped a very vunerable nut straight.

I would have raised preflop.

I would have bet the flop and called all raises. I would have check called all raised on the turn and fold if I did not hit the flush.

butters · #3 04-28-2004, 03:09 PM

I'd play this the same way. You're in a bad spot position-wise, but I don't see where you can get away from this hand without seeing the river.

tolbiny · #4 04-28-2004, 03:15 PM

the sb bet out on the flop.
why would you raise from the bb preflop against players who will take their hands to far?

Mike Gallo · #5 04-28-2004, 03:19 PM

why would you raise from the bb preflop against players who will take their hands to far?

Exactly the reason why I will raise.

Ed Miller · #6 04-28-2004, 04:20 PM

Ok guys, this is the easiest part of limit hold 'em there is. For some reason there is an explosion of "can I fold my flush draw?" posts lately.

This the actual formula I use in real play to decide whether to fold a flush draw (two in my hand and two on the board):

1. Is the board paired? If no, go to "Put the money in"
2. Is the board doubled paired or does it contain trips? If no, go to "Put the money in"
3. So the board is double paired or contains trips, huh? Well, that sucks. Umm.. well, you might wanna fold unless the pot is huge or something.

Put the money in - PUT THE MONEY IN! WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT FOLDING FOR??? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

That's basically it. It's right well over 90% of the time. I don't worry about the other small % of the time. It's close enough.

Joe Tall · #7 04-28-2004, 04:26 PM

Besides preflop, well played.

Peace,
Joe Tall

Joe826 · #8 04-28-2004, 04:34 PM

I'm really glad I ended up posting this hand because I realized my thinking was pretty screwed up. At the time I knew I couldn't get away from this hand, but after the fact I was questioning whether or not the pot was laying me proper odds on the flop when I was 1 to 4 to make the flush on the turn and there were only 2 players in raising like crazy. The part that slipped my mind was the fact that i'm 1 to 2 to make this by the river and two opponents capping the turn would still make it a profitable call. I can't believe I missed that. Anyways I'm glad I ended up doing the right thing heh. Thanks for the comments everyone.

Also, I think I might need to examine my standards for raising in the blinds. I usually only raise in the blinds with very good hands (which I don't really consider ATs to be). I'm pretty sure this thinking comes from Jones' WLLH. What things do you take into consideration when deciding whether or not to raise a hand out of the blinds?

Thanks again guys.

Mike Gallo · #9 04-28-2004, 04:38 PM

For some reason there is an explosion of "can I fold my flush draw?" posts lately.

I noticed this myself. I wonder if it has anything to do with the " Why dont __________ play poker?" posts [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

arkady · #10 04-28-2004, 06:13 PM

Why am I the only one that thinks this should have been let go on the flop, given the position and the aggressiveness of the two players.

The outs are there, but this is just ugly.