#1
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Correct to call these bets?
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3. UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks. Flop: (5.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players) </font> BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB folds. Turn: (4.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players) </font> <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls. River: (7.66 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players) </font> <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, Hero folds. Final Pot: 8.66 BB <font color="#990066">Main Pot: 7.66 BB, won by UTG+1.</font> <font color="#990066">Pot 2: 1 BB, overbet by UTG+1.</font> |
#2
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
Do you figure the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as an out? When it is your turn to act, the pot is 8.33 SB. Playing this with one card to come, you are 14.4:1 against if 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is not an out, and 10.5:1 against if it is. I would probably fold, seeing as with two callers one of them easily could have a flush draw.
On the turn, you now have an outside straight draw, with 6 pretty clean outs (AT would beat you if a J rivered), and 2 questionable outs (7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). The pot is offering 6.66 BB. Your 6 outer is 6.7:1 against. Definitely call the turn. |
#3
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
No on the flop and yes on the turn (close).
On the flop you are getting 8.33-1 on a 10.5-1 shot. Also, one of your gutshot outs is bad because of the flush. Just save your bets for a better spot. If the board was rainbow I'd probably call here because of the expectation of future bets that I could win. The turn is something sklansky has talked about in the past. Your early mistakes forces you to call here. |
#4
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
This pot is too small to be chasing a gut-shot, not the mention the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] may make you the second best hand.
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#5
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
I am a bit of a loose fish but I definitely call on the flop. Because of your position, you will have an easy time making up the implied odds if you hit your straight. And a 9 or T might give you the best hand as well.
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#6
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
Are you assuming the 7 :hearts: is good for you? If not it's required that you hit your hand on the turn and it stands up and you collect over 6 small bets to make the flop call correct.
Why not just fold which is at worst a neutral EV decision here and wait for a better opportunity to put your money in? I think it would be a good exercise to try and defend the flop call. |
#7
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Re: Correct to call these bets?
MarkD,
Yes I am assuming that a good percentage of the time, the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will be a good card for my hand. Its obviously not the cleanest out as it could give someone a flush, or at the least a redraw to a flush. Suppose the board was rainbow. That gives you 4 clean outs to the nuts. You are getting 8.33:1, and of course the odds we need for a gutshot draw ar 10.75:1. So we need ~ 2.5 SMALL bets to justify calling. That 1 and 1/4 big bets. I dont know how to figure how much you would earn on average but I think 2BBs each time would be a low estimate. Now of course the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a slightly troublesome out, but if we dont count that as an out, we need 15:1 to call. So we need 6 and 2/3 Sbs or a little over 3 BBs to call. This should be very easy to make back acting last after 3 players on the turn and river. So clearly we have the odds to call even if you have only 3 outs. Add in the fact that the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will frequently be a great card for your hand, AND the times you can win hitting a 9 or a T, and this is a clear call, and it's not close. [ QUOTE ] Why not just fold which is at worst a neutral EV decision here and wait for a better opportunity to put your money in? [/ QUOTE ] I see the flop ~22% of hands. Why should I keep waiting? I'm in a hand and there is money to be made... |
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