Too aggressive with AKs

[DrPublo]

Would anyone have played this one differently? If so, how? Thoughts on capping the turn?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls.

River: (13.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
CO checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 13.75 BB, between CO and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by CO (13.75 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
CO shows 5h 5c (three of a kind, fives).
Hero shows Kd Ad (one pair, aces).
Outcome: CO wins 13.75 BB. </font>

When villian checked to me on the flop, I totally suspected a c/r, and yet I dont mind playing into her here with TPTK and backdoor flush outs. I really liked my hand on the turn...but did I LOVE it too much? Also, anyone else see a set coming here? I really suspected AK/AQ because she didn't cap preflop, and thought I might have been free-rolling diamonds.

Just take my beat and move on?

The Doc

[Barry]

You played it fine until she 3-bet the turn. At that point you are likely behind and should have just called and prayed for a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[DrPublo]

Right, but with a PFR in front of me, can I really expect 55 or 22? I suppose 88 is a possibility, but why is she calling on the flop once I 3-bet her preflop and the A falls.

The only other possibility would be AA, except 1) AA caps preflop, 2) AA check/calls flop, check/raises turn, and 3) I've got an A, so if she has the other two more power to her.

I guess a better question is knowing the style of play at Party 1/2, is this an easy cap on the turn? Or should I slow down?

The Doc

[MrBlini]

The good news is that you'd have lost as much just calling the turn and river.

I'm inclined to cap that flop with AK. If bet into on the turn, you could then call it down unless you get help. As you played it, the 3-bet on the turn should tell you the same thing. You probably need help, and the more the better.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but with a PFR in front of me, can I really expect 55 or 22? I suppose 88 is a possibility, but why is she calling on the flop once I 3-bet her preflop and the A falls.
The only other possibility would be AA, except

[/ QUOTE ]
AK seems consistent with her play. An aggressive person might play AQ the same way also. Either seems more likely than 55 based on preflop, but at party, you can never be sure.

[jt1]

when it's folded to the CO and she raises. That only means that she could have anything. The check raise indicates that she has something better than top pair. Against more than one opponent, I cap. Head to head I call down.

[BugsBunny]

I don't like the turn cap. When she raises the turn I put her on 2 pair or a set. Probable hands here from someone with a clue are: A5, 55, A8, A2s, AA, 88 - and maybe 22. The first 6 are all hands that I would play for a raise preflop if I was CO here (I would probably muck the 22 - although not always. Depends on players left to act.)

If I had AA I would probably just call the flop and then c/r the turn (and I would not have 4 bet preflop in a HU situation). All the others I play just the way CO did.

On the flop there's a lot more hands I might c/r with (and then lead the turn). This includes any A (most of which I would have raised preflop with from CO), KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, and maybe 44 and 33. This starts becoming more player dependent though. Some of the smaller pairs I would only play this way if I think I may be able to push you off a non-A pair (like JJ or TT for example). But even then most of the time I wouldn't 3 bet the turn - I'd be more likely to fold a lot of those to the raise.

The good news about the turn raise is it gave you a free showdown on the river and cost you the same as calling the 3 bet and river would have. It also would have enabled you to win an extra bet on the river if you hit your flush (but would probably have cost you an extra bet if you hit your K). This actually argues in favor of the turn cap - especially if you would have been capable of checking behind if a flush hit, but paired the board. The big question becomes should you check behind if the K hits.

Most people would say no. I think I would argue for yes. You already got an extra bet in on the turn. A set is a real possibility here given the way the action went. Player dependent, but I think I take the free showdown in this case. The only hands likely to call that you beat are A8 and A5. Let's see:
A8 6 ways
A5 6 ways
AA 1 way
55 3 ways
88 3 ways
A2s 1 way (hearts)
22 3 ways

Some of the above start becomiong player dependent. Any A8/5 or only suited ones? If you think that only a suited A5 is likely but any A8 then the A5 drops to 2 possibilities instead of 6. So lets look at a a situation like this:
A8 6 ways
A5s 2 ways
so you win 8 ways (9 if you thrown in A2s)
And you would lose
AA 1 way
55 3 ways
88 3 ways
So you lose 7 ways (10 if you throw in 22).

Even taking the 8-7 split that becomes a check behind situation rather than a bet. You win 53% and you need about 55% to be able to bet here (to account for the times you get c/r and lose). Ultimately it comes down to the range of hands that you think you're opponent may be playing here. In other words - it depends.

The final question becomes what would you have done if she led the river? I think a good case for folding to a river bet can be made based on all the above. All the action suggests that you're beat. She's been very aggressive ever since the flop. Yes you have TPTK but I don't think you win here more than 6.3% of the time unless your opponent is very LAG.

-bugs

[arkady]

I am going to give you a somewhat of a generalization. Against typical players if you are 3-bet on the turn, TP/TK is dead. In your case, just call - you still got 9 outs.

On the other hand it seems capping gave you a 'free' showdown, so in all reality I dont think anything would have changed as you would have paid her off on the river had she bet.

[jt1]

Tell me if you strongly disagree, but the far more common action for someone with a KK when an ace hits is to bet out and just call down when raised. When someone checkraises me, I suspect 2 pair or better. I do see top pair weak kickers go for a checkraise every now then, especially against a small field.