River decision

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Well, maybe a number of decisions were off here. Just a sanity check. 'Stars 2-table SNG. I'm in MP with 1520, 15 left, 8 at my table, blinds are 15/30.

I'm dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 2 limpers to me, I limp, CO limps, SB completes, BB checks. (180 in pot)

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB ckecks, BB bets 30, folded to me, I raise to 240, CO & SB fold. BB calls. (640 in pot)

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. My first read on the BB minibet on the flop was flush draw. I bet 320, BB calls. (pot is 1280)

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Yes, that ugly sound you hear is the sound of my 2 pair being counterfeited.

BB checks. Your move?

Results later.

[Stoneii]

Check - I'd guess only a winning hand calls a raise so might as well see it 4 free.

stoneii

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I agree that if my first read on his play is correct, he folds when I bet. If I'm wrong and he has a T or a K with a kicker 9 or higher, he calls and I'm out. My question comes from wondering how often my bet(if indeed I bet) will get a hand that splits the pot to fold. Is that significant enough to make a difference?

[Stoneii]

In a 2+2 game just maybe [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but my guess is no matter what the kicker here a King will call your bet!, but then that's the stakes I play at!!

Did u take it down?

[La Brujita]

I check in a second. If you have top pair weak kicker you play that hand cautiously and that is basically what you have here. Also, this is a classic case of a situation where you fold to a big reraise but you actually have a good hand. I think betting here is a huge mistake.

Regards

[PlayerA]

If your opponent came this far with a rag king, then I doubt they lay down on the river.

[NotMitch]

Check, cant think a better hand folds or a worse hand calls very often here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I checked behind immediately, fear of kicker, etc.

Opponent showed K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a chop.

I only started wondering after the fact when I realized that being outkicked was a very low probability AK, KQ or KJ would've bet stronger on the flop, I would've heard from KT or K8 by the turn, leaving only K9 as a threat.

But, as everyone else pointed out, he likely wouldn'y lay down K7 or worse to a bet, so pushing on the river was all risk, no return.