Over the long run what should I be playing for maximum profit?

[rob7278]

I am very interested in getting some feedback as to what Holm'em games others are playing to generate the best profits. I have been playing the Party Poker single table NL tournaments(started out at $10 tables, progressed up to $50 over some time) because initially I was finishing in the money about 75-80% of the time. However some sort of switch has been flipped and now I find myself having a hard time finishing in the money even on the $10 tables many times; many bankroll has taken a considerable hit. Figuring I'm probably on tilt a bit and/or playing scared I have continually been moving down from the $50 to the $30 to the $20 and so on, in an effort to get things back on track. I have been scanning this forum and have found many people stating that you should stay away from the SNG tables. The books I have read about playing smart Hold'em would seem to echo this, as the books preach patience and in the SNG format you do not seem to have the time to sit back and wait for the playing hands because the blinds are increasing every ten hands. Additionally once you get down to 4-5 players and the blinds are considerable, it becomes an all-in fest pre-flop; which I feel diminishes skill and increases the luck factor. I am not implying that the problem's I am having are not my fault, quite the contrary- I am sure I am playing much more tenative that I have in the past. I am just questioning whether over the long run the SNG(single game tourneys; sit n go) offer the best opportunity for profit. Again interested in learning what others feel are the best Hold'em games for turning a profit. Perhaps the answer is that I am just not very good and that my initial winning streak was a fluke; however I am still able to finish in the money a good percentage of the time in the Multi table tournaments and my current Party Poker monthly ranking is 122nd(which under no circumstances am I patting myself on the back; as I would much rather have a swelling bank account, and 122nd isn't that great as that means there are currently 121 people playing better than me). I would just think I could at least beat people in a $10 Single Table NL Tournament.

[harboral]

Playing in multi-table tournaments will give your bankroll a huge variance. You will go up and down in very drastic swings due to the very nature of tournaments, and the many, many players against you. The sit-n-go's are going to give you a much smaller swing, but what most people find is that they have some initial success and then run downhill.

I believe the reason for this initial up and down at the sit-n-go's has more to do with players ability to play short-handed than anything else. To win, you do need to get good cards, and your odds are not too long against catching some solid hands and winning a tourny or two out of your first five or ten. However, as you get into double digit numbers your ability will be what drives your winning or losing numbers, and by the time you have played 100 10-person tournaments you will have a reasonable idea of whether you can beat these games or not.

From my perspective, you need to be a solid tournament player, play patiently because if you get knocked out at any point it costs you money, but if you get knocked out when in 4th or even 3rd place it is a disaster because of how close you were to getting the real plum of first place money. Here is a key - if you find yourself coming in 4th place a lot, you are not solid at short-handed games.

The best players are strong when it gets short-handed, and the style of play from patience to much more aggressive takes over here. If you don't understand short-handed tactics due to lack of experience or for whatever reason, you will not do well.

Over the long run, if you are looking to win tourny's, the sit-n-go's are great if you learn to play short-handed. If you want to have the lowest variance and want to play regular table games, the smaller NL games are still very beatable. The $25 and $50 buy-in games will offer more hourly than limit $1/2 or $2/4 tables with less swings in your bankroll. Al